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"Don't Panic" in Large, Friendly Letters

Jay Cost:

Here is where Gallup has found incumbent presidents at this point, i.e. roughly mid-September, since 1956.

Through 2004 every incumbent who was above 50 percent at this point won, and every incumbent who was under 50 percent at this point lost. As of today, Obama is under 50 percent.

Now get to work.