The Stupidest Argument of the Week

I want to tell you about my favorite equation in the world. It goes like this:

E = P × V

That's read as "the expected value of an event is the value of the event times the probability the event happens."

It's amazing how often that comes up – especially in discussions about insurance, computer security, and the famous wall.

During the recent kerf lawful (I meant "kerfuffle" but I like that better) over Trump's desire for a border wall or barrier or whatever the hell they are calling it now, Dan Crenshaw — whom I may like almost as much as I like that equation — tweeted about the wall.

This was immediately followed by a succession of tweets to the effect of, "Ha ha ha tunnels! Ackshully, walls don't work."

Which brings us back to the equation. Now, let us assume for the sake of argument that each illegal immigrant comes with an associated cost. That means the expected cost of illegal immigration is basically proportional to how hard it is to get into the country as an illegal immigrant.

Here's the fact that clearly has been kept secret from these city folk, who I'm sure have never dug so much as a post hole: digging tunnels is hard. Digging tunnels secretly is really hard. (Go watch "The Great Escape" or read about the Tunnel 57.)