The Overwhelming Odds a FISA Warrant Would Have Been Issued on Page Even Without the Dossier

The Foreign Intelligence and Surveillance Act (FISA) was passed in 1978. Since then, more than 35,000 FISA warrants have been issued. Only 12 requests to the Foreign Intelligence and Surveillance Court (FISC) have been denied.

That makes the odds pretty good that a request from the FBI for a FISA warrant to spy on former Trump volunteer Carter Page would have been granted regardless of the anti-Trump bias in the bureau and the questionable provenance of the Steele Dossier.

Indeed, as this Wall Street Journal article points out, the FISA courts are often asked to issue a warrant on tainted or biased information.

Today a number of libertarians and liberals are pointing to a blog post by USC law professor Orin Kerr,  who says that failure to disclose the interests of the source is often a non-issue:

Part of the problem is that judges figure that of course informants are often biased. Informants usually have ulterior motives, and judges donโ€™t need to be told that. A helpful case is United States v. Strifler, 851 F.2d 1197, 1201 (9th Cir. 1988), in which the government obtained a warrant to search a house for a meth lab inside. Probable cause was based largely on a confidential informant who told the police that he had not only seen a meth lab in the house but had even helped others to try to manufacture meth there. The magistrate judge issued the warrant based on the informantโ€™s detailed tip. The search was successful and charges followed.

The defendants challenged the warrant on the ground that the affidavit had failed to mention the remarkable ulterior motives of the informant. The affidavit didnโ€™t mention that the โ€œinformantโ€ was actually a married couple that had been in a quarrel with the defendants; that the couple was facing criminal charges themselves and had been โ€œguaranteed by the prosecutor that they would not be prosecuted if they provided informationโ€; and that they had been paid by the government for giving the information. The affidavit didnโ€™t mention any of that. A big deal, right?

According to the court, no. โ€œIt would have to be a very naive magistrate who would suppose that a confidential informant would drop in off the street with such detailed evidence and not have an ulterior motive,โ€ Judge Noonan wrote. โ€œThe magistrate would naturally have assumed that the informant was not a disinterested citizen.โ€ The fact that the magistrate wasnโ€™t told that the โ€œinformantโ€ was guaranteed to go free and paid for the information didnโ€™t matter, as โ€œthe magistrate was given reason to think the informant knew a good deal about what was going onโ€ inside the house.

If this is accurate, and if itโ€™s also acceptable to include uncorroborated information in warrant applications, this means that the bar for approving government spying against domestic political opponents is significantly lower than most Americans have been led to believe.