2020 Census Estimates: Population Growth Slows as Americans Move South
The Census Bureau has released its estimates for the 2020 count, showing the nation's slowest population growth in a century as for the first time in decades — the number of births minus the number of deaths was less than one million. Overall, the U.S. population has grown at 0.48 percent since 2010.
An analysis of the census data by the Brookings Institution shows some misleading stats. Texas will add three congressional seats, but the influx of Hispanics is turning the state bluer. Florida will add two seats and Arizona, one. Again, the political impact of a growing Latino population in those states is unknown.
Also gaining a seat were Colorado, North Carolina, Montana, and Oregon. Significantly, California will lose a seat for the first time in its history. Also losing a seat are Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Alabama, Ohio, New York, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.
California, which recorded its lowest level of population growth in over a century, lost an estimated 200,000 people to domestic migration over the last year and is expected to lose a Congressional seat for the first time in its history. New York, which the Census estimates lost over 180,000 to domestic migration, will likely lose another House seat after losing two in 2010.
Texas, which gained four seats in 2010, is expected to gain an additional two, while Florida, Arizona, and others are also slated to add seats as demographics shift south.
The Census Bureau estimates another fall in net international migration, a statistic that has steadily fallen since 2016. From 2018 to 2019, migration fell to 595,348, down from a peak this decade of 1,046,709 in 2016.
42 of 50 states also had a negative birth rate over the last year, with West Virginia having the worst natural decrease of over 4,600 more deaths than births from 2018 to 2019.
Naturally, liberals are celebrating the impending victory of Democrats because of the influx of Hispanics into several states. But this very well may be a mirage. The Hispanic vote is not monolithic like the black vote. In fact, Trump does about as well as George W. Bush with non-white voters.
The survey revealed a remarkable level of support for the president from minority voters in the deeply Democratic state. In a head-to-head matchup with present front-runner Joe Biden, Donald Trump earns 32% support from non-white Californians. His support vs. Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, and Bernie Sanders also registers percentages in the low 30s.
If Trump can garner a third of the minority vote in a state that provided the entirety of Hillary Clinton’s popular vote surplus in 2016, then on a national basis the Democratic Party faces a daunting, and perhaps even impossible, uphill climb to unseat the president. In fact, national polling displays pronounced support for this president among Hispanics. For example, The Hill published a poll in September showing his Hispanic approval at 37%. Then a November Emerson poll found similar 38% Latino approval. In a related surprise, that same Emerson survey rocked the political world with a 34% approval rating for the president among black voters.
Those approval numbers are actually better than Bush's. Of course, those numbers may not translate into votes for the president, but it should certainly scare the hell out of Democrats. The fact is, the Democrats have all their electoral eggs in one basket: minorities. Further, they are counting on Trump-hatred to drive turnout to Obama-era levels. They have given up on trying to attract working-class and middle-class white voters. To do so, they would have to compromise too many of their core beliefs and start talking like Americans rather than socialists. Instead, they have pinned their hopes on turning out millions of minority voters who are supposed to hate Trump.
But they don't, and that's a problem.
From day one, the Democrat's strategy has been to demonize, to smear, to lie, to exaggerate, and to accuse the president of crimes. They have been hoping that generating enough hate, fear, and anger against Trump will drive their voters to the polls in record numbers. It may yet work, but pollsters aren't seeing any great movement against Trump by minorities and at this point, less than a year from the election, that's a very worrisome sign for Democrats.