Is the Breakup of Iraq Good or Bad for America?
"It neither helps us nor hurts us, but exactly the opposite," Mexican President Luis Echeverria is supposed to have said ("Ni nos benefica ni nos perjudica, sino todo lo contrario"). In the case of Iraq, as so often, it depends: the winner is the side best able to bear the burden of uncertainty. America should be the winner when our prospective enemies fight each other (as I argued in the February 2012 essay reposted below). In the language of option trading (see here), we should be long volatility, but instead are short volatility. That is because neither the Obama administration nor the Republican mainstream can admit that Iraq and Syria are not to be stabilized, and are stuck with the onus of apparent policy failure.
Iraq's woes surely are good for the Russians and the Iranians. Russia just delivered five Sukhoi 25's, their nimbler but less powerful competitor to our Warthog close-air-defense fighter (that's the one the Pentagon proposes to eliminate), the first installment on a $500 million contract for a dozen of them. Russia also is selling $2 billion of arms, including attack helicopters, to Egypt, and with Saudi funding. The Iranians meanwhile have sent in special forces and armaments.
All of this makes our leadership in both parties look like idiots, and that is bad for America. Even those of us who think that our leadership are idiots cringe when it becomes obvious to the rest of the world. The American public by a margin of 71:22 thinks that the Iraq War wasn't worth it. They are against any sort of intervention because there is no-one they trust to conduct intervention sensibly.
Putin is not smarter than we are. He is simply unburdened by the illusion that most of the countries in the region should or will succeed, and he is willing to stay one jump ahead of the game, maneuvering for advantage as opportunities emerge. We are fettered by Obama's affirmative-action approach to the Muslim world as articulated in his July 2009 Cairo address and numerous subsequent statements, and the Republicans' ideological belief that the mere form of parliamentary democracy fixes all problems.
The intrusion of reality benefits the likes of Putin, because Putin is a realist. It hurts us, because we refuse to accept reality. Our leaders live in ideological bubbles; they are incapable of considering the consequence of their errors, because they believe in their respective causes (the innate goodness of Islam or the innate propensity of people towards democracy) with religious intensity.
The U.S. needs to draw a line around its allies -- the Gulf states and the kingdom of Jordan -- and ensure that the ISIS problem is contained at their borders. What happens inside Iraq is not our concern, although we might want to quietly tweak this or that aspect of the facts on the ground. But it is pointless for another American to die in that miserable place. The Balkans, said Bismarck, wasn't worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier. All the less so Mesopotamia.
What should we do in Iraq? Be the bad guy in the "Three Musketeers."
Read my essay on the next page.