Can the global world evolve?
Globalization isn't going quite according to plan. The French president, in defiance of political correctness openly worries African immigration could swamp the whole of Europe and "aid" is powerless to stop it. "The challenge of Africa is completely different, it is ... civilizational ... failing states, complex democratic transitions, the demographic transition ... in some countries today seven or eight children [are] born to each woman," Emmanuel Macron said. It is one more indication, as Ross Douthat of the New York Times notes, that Western leaders are starting to worry that their assumptions about the global world could prove drastically wrong.
African birthrates haven’t slowed as fast as Western experts once expected ... by century’s end two in five human beings could be African ... but ... over the same period, Europe’s population is likely to drop by about 100 million. ... the experience of recent refugee crises has demonstrated to European leaders both how easily populations can move northward, and how much harder assimilation may be than they once hoped.
Projections that underpinned the liberal policies of population control, climate change, open borders, soft power are now suspect. Open borders advocates wait with bated breath as central American refugee "caravans" headed for the United States in a replay of the migrant crisis that changed the political landscape Europe. Even a giant column from Honduras wound towards the US border yet another U.S.-bound caravan was taking shape in El Salvador. "As the Trump administration makes preparations to combat the 6,500-member Honduran migrant caravan making its way toward the United States, the Department of Homeland Security is also tracking a new caravan taking shape — this time from El Salvador."
Ironically the caravans could wind up boosting Donald Trump the way the European refugee flows crippled Angela Merkel. Her position as "Leader of the Free World" now seems over as "her junior coalition partners, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), saw support in Bavaria halved." It would be one more hint that liberal policy analysts miscalculated badly.
Just how weak the globalist orthodoxy has now become was illustrated by Italy's budgetary defiance of the European Union. "In what is becoming a dangerous game of chicken for the global economy, Italy’s populist government refused to budge on Tuesday after the European Union for the first time sent back a member state’s proposed budget because it violated the bloc’s fiscal laws and posed unacceptable risks." The Atlantic notes that far from being fearful of Brussels the Italians are raring for a fight. The Independent suggests that Rome's open revolt is now a bigger threat to the EU than Brexit. "It could finish the euro ... Add the migrant crisis" and you have a perfect storm.
The chief challenges to globalization now stem from the cascading failures of the system itself principally in the effect of China, Russia and MENA's refusal to democratize. With hostiles inside the wire Western political parties are realizing that they are no longer complete masters of their own house. Russian collusion and Saudi influence are but different names for foreign influence now rampant in what used to be domestic affairs.