John Lott, who was hired by the Justice Department in October as senior adviser for Research and Statistics at the Office of Justice Programs, has published a study concluding that as many as 368,000 “excess votes” tipped the election outcome to favor Joe Biden in two consequential battleground states.
“Increased fraud can take many forms: higher rates of filling out absentee ballots for people who hadn’t voted, dead people voting, ineligible people voting, or even payments to legally registered people for their votes,” reads the study’s summary. “The estimates here indicate that there were 70,000 to 79,000 ‘excess’ votes in Georgia and Pennsylvania.”
The best estimate shows an unusual 7.81% drop in Trump’s percentage of the absentee ballots for Fulton County alone of 11,350 votes, or over 80% of Biden’s vote lead in Georgia. The same approach is applied to Allegheny County in Pennsylvania for both absentee and provisional ballots. The estimated number of fraudulent votes from those two sources is about 55,270 votes.
The study aimed to quantify how large of a problem voter fraud and other election irregularities were in the 2020 election. “The process is applicable to other states where precinct-level data is available on voting by absentee and in-person voting,” explains the study’s introduction.
Lott concludes that the discrepancies in absentee voting are not likely to have been caused by a shift by Democrats to vote absentee because of the pandemic, as the study controlled for in-person voting.
“In layman’s terms, in precincts with alleged fraud, Trump’s proportion of absentee votes was depressed – even when such precincts had similar in-person Trump vote shares to their surrounding countries,” Lott explains. “The fact that the shift happens only in absentee ballots, and when a country line is crossed, is suspicious.”
“The precinct level estimates for Georgia and Pennsylvania indicate that vote fraud may account for Biden’s win in both states,” Lott concludes.
Lott also looked at voter turnout rates in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, comparing counties where there was alleged fraud and those where there wasn’t. When those states are included, Lott estimates that as many 289,000 fraudulent votes in the 2020 election were counted.
The study, called “A Simple Test for the Extent of Vote Fraud with Absentee Ballots in the 2020 Presidential Election: Georgia and Pennsylvania Data” was published on Tuesday.
Lott is considered a controversial figure by the left-wing media. He is the founder of the Crime Prevention Research Center, a pro-Second Amendment nonprofit, which has published studies concluding that communities with higher rates of gun ownership have lower rates of crime. Lott left the organization to serve in the Trump administration. Andrew Pollack, the father of Meadow Pollack, who was killed during the Parkland shooting in 2018, has since taken over as president of the organization.
Matt Margolis is the author of Airborne: How The Liberal Media Weaponized The Coronavirus Against Donald Trump, and the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis