WHAT GOES AROUND COMES AROUND: Sudan’s military has toppled longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. Bashir is now under arrest. Bashir seized power in a military coup in 1989. Despite his arrest the nation-wide protests against the government continue. Why? It’s a new military dictatorship, not a democratically elected civilian government.
The BBC makes this point in the linked report:
But demonstrators say the military council is part of the same regime.
The fresh stand-off has raised fears of a violent confrontation between protesters and the army.
There is also a real danger that different elements of the security forces and militia could turn their guns on each other, BBC World Service Africa editor Will Ross says.
StrategyPage published its latest Sudan update on April 5. (Full disclosure: I wrote 90 percent of it.) The update sketches events since December 19, 2018 when the demonstrations began. The update’s titled “Sudan Slides Towards Civil War.” Note the BBC says the security forces and government militias may start shooting at one another. That classifies as civil war.
From the April 5 StrategyPage update:
The protests began December 19, 2018. Initially, public anger at government reductions in food and fuel subsidies sparked the unrest but Sudan’s weak economy and president-for-life Bashir’s misrule (especially corruption) are the real sources of disgust. The economy has suffered considerably because of the loss of revenue from South Sudan’s oil fields (courtesy of South Sudan’s independence). Some protestors have focused on the Bashir’s huge spending on the military and security services while neglecting basic government services. President Bashir also faces indictments by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and genocide in Darfur. Little wonder removing Bashir has become the demonstrators’ principal demand.
Note the March 13 entry regarding “the government’s harsh crackdown on street protestors, journalists and opposition political leaders.” (Scroll down.)
On February 22 Bashir “imposed a year-long state of national emergency. During the national emergency, public demonstrations are banned.” But the demonstrations continued. More people joined the protests. (See this March 11 update for details on the state of emergency and expanding protests.) On March 11 Bashir still retained the loyalty of the army. A month later that had changed.
This update has background on Bashir (February 1 entry):
He seized power in 1989 in a military coup and the military remains his base of power. Bashir continues to face arrest by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity in western Sudan (Darfur).
Bashir’s government hosted some of the world’s most notorious terrorists, Carlos “the Jackal” and Osama bin Laden among them. Abu Nidal also had a Khartoum address. Allegedly Lords Resistance Army commander and mass murderer Joseph Kony hides out in one of Sudan’s far corners.
On January 12 local observers believed the political opposition was “too fractured” to topple Bashir.
Stay tuned.