ILYA SOMIN ON THE RUSSIA/GEORGIA CEASEFIRE AGREEEMENT: “If this agreement holds (a big if), it’s a better outcome than I would have expected. Georgia’s democratic government will remain in place, despite Russia’s previous determination to overthrow it. The Russians will not have destroyed Georgia’s oil pipeline to Europe (the most important pipeline in the region that doesn’t pass through Russian or Iranian territory). And Russia will renounce future use of force against Georgia and reduce its forces in the secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to their prewar levels. I am skeptical that the Russians will fully respect the last two commitments. Nonetheless, the outcome could have been far worse. Why did Russia accept an arrangement that falls so far short of their maximum objectives?”

Austin Bay, on the other hand, calls the diplomatic aftermath “dire.”

UPDATE: Much more here. Plus this:

President Mikheil Saakashvili told a rally that Georgia would quit the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a grouping of former Soviet states, and urged Ukraine to follow suit.

Georgia has received strong support from other former communist states with the leaders of Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states travelling to Tbilisi where they addressed a mass rally.

“You have the right to freedom and independence. We are here to demonstrate our solidarity … freedom is worth fighting for,” shouted Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko in live pictures carried by Georgian television.

Georgia took Russia before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for “alleged acts of ethnic cleansing” between 1993 and 2008, starting with the period when Russian peacekeepers entered Georgia’s breakaway regions.

Hmm.