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Brilliant thread filled with dire predictions which somehow, completely unexpectedly, never came to pass.

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: Internet Hilariously Responds to ‘BirthStrikers’ Who Are Avoiding Childbirth Due to Impending Ecological Doom.

The doom that’s been impending since 1968.

(Classical reference in headline.)

AFTER HOROWITZ, THE BARR DELUGE: That’s the prediction of Margot Cleveland this morning on The Federalist. She’s a 25-year veteran of the federal judiciary system, so her insights about Department of Justice procedures are particularly interesting. Should be read in conjunction with the column by the Washington Examiner’s Michael Barone, highlighted here earlier today by Glenn.

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: National Park Begins Subtle Removal of “Gone by 2020” Signs After Glaciers Just Keep Not Being Gone.

(Classical reference in headline.)

LAST NIGHT ED LINKED TO THIS STORY… House Dems mull censure as alternative to impeachment… and headlined it “EXIT RAMP.”

An easy prediction is that if the House does censure, the media will salivate over it as something unprecedented, staggering in its implications, the Democrats taking back the moral high ground, etc, rather than as the embarrassing walk-back from impeachment that it actually would be.

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: Joe Biden’s ‘Clean Energy Revolution’ Is a Repackaged ‘Green New Deal’ But Dems Don’t Like It.

Apparently, very repackaged: Joe Biden’s Climate Platform Appears to Plagiarize From Nonprofits.

Neil Kinnock could not be reached for comments.

And then there’s Biden’s usual gilding the lily: Flashback: ‘Uniter-in-Chief’ Biden Takes Credit for Starting ‘This Whole Thing’ on Climate Change in ’87. “In fact, Politifact notes, ‘Biden’s bill was not the first time Congress focused on climate change.’”

(Classical reference in headline.)

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: The Education of Greta Thunberg: Naivety Meets Reality for the Teen Climate Alarmist.

(Classical reference in headline.)

PREDICTION: THEY’LL BE MOVING SOON. Why Portland, Oregon, is the Knife-making Capital of the U.S.

JOEL KOTKIN: Making Life Worse: The Flaws of Green Mandates.

“Saving the planet” should be an unbeatable political slogan. Yet consistently the imagined “green wave” mindlessly embraced by most of the media continues to fall short, as evidenced by recent elections in Canada and Australia, as well as across much of Europe.

These results reflect climate scientist Roger Pielke’s 2010 notion of “the iron law of climate policy.” Pielke noted that support for reducing greenhouse emissions is limited by the amount of sacrifice demanded. “People will pay some amount for climate goals,” he noted, “but only so much.” At $80 a year per household, he suggested, polls found most people would support climate measures but raise it to $770 annually and support drops below ten percent. . . .

Greens can only succeed only if they abandon their dystopian scenario for humanity. This trend was epitomized by the 1970s predictions of Paul Ehrlich about an impending “population bomb,” that would lead to mass starvation on a planetary scale. Needless to say this didn’t occur. Over the last thirty years some have predicted the North Pole ice would all but disappear but this apocalypse has not remotely occurred.

Sadly, such gross errors have not led a moment’s hesitation about making ever more far out assertions. It seems that every decade the planet has five or ten years left if draconian measures are not taken. Just this year a writer for the New Yorker predicted the familiar scenario of a “famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us,” adding suggestions that to meet this challenge may require displacing our democracy with an enlightened rule from above.

The predicted apocalypses change, but the solutions are always the same. Meanwhile, I’ll believe it’s a crisis when the people who keep telling me it’s a crisis start acting like it’s a crisis.

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: Mammoth Mountain to Stay Open Into August After Recording Its Snowiest May Ever.

(Classical reference in headline.)

MICHAEL BARONE: Will ‘whiteshift’ save America from ethnic strife?

If you’ve been paying any attention at all to journalism in recent years — maybe not a good idea, but if you have — you surely have noticed those stories predicting, often with a certain relish, that the United States is about to become a majority-minority country.

Such predictions, as the Obama administration Census Bureau director noted in 2015, “made demographic change look like a zero-sum game that white Americans were losing.” Such fears may have contributed to Donald Trump’s election the following year. No one wants to vote for the side that seems to be saying, “Hurry up and die.”

But are those trends so inevitable? Not necessarily, writes political scientist Eric Kaufmann, a Canadian who teaches in Britain and is of Jewish, Chinese, and Latino ancestry. His most recent book is called Whiteshift, which he defines as “the mixture of many non-whites into the white group through voluntary assimilation.”

As he points out, something like this has happened before. A hundred years ago, Catholic, Orthodox, and Jewish immigrants pouring into Ellis Island were considered to be of different “races” by white Anglo-Saxon Protestant elites.

Half a century ago, their descendants were regarded as still culturally and politically distinctive in Nathan Glazer and Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s description of New York ethnics groups, Beyond the Melting Pot. A “balanced” ticket in those days had to include Irish, Italian, and Jewish candidates.

Today, all these groups are lumped together as “whites,” even though there are still perceptible, though muted, differences in political attitudes and perspectives between those with different ancestries.

One might go even further back in history. American political culture and institutions have their roots, as the late political scientist Samuel Huntington argued in Who Are We?, in England. In the seventeenth century, unlike almost all other European polities, England welcomed Jews and Huguenots, tolerated Catholics and Quakers, nurtured representative government, and protected individual rights.

That’s a template for an expandable polity — one that gives us and other Anglosphere nations a useful model as we experience ethnic change.

But division is better for the ethnic grifters who run one of our major parties.

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: ‘Uniter-in-Chief’ Biden Takes Credit for Starting ‘This Whole Thing’ on Climate Change in ’87. “In fact, Politifact notes, ‘Biden’s bill was not the first time Congress focused on climate change.’”

(Classical reference in headline.)

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: Yosemite looks like a snow globe, and summer is just around the corner.

(Classical reference in headline.)


● Shot:

The Grauniad, yesterday.

● Chaser: “President Obama ‘has four years to save Earth.’”

—Headline, The Grauniad, January 18, 2009.

● Hangover:

The “Siberian” climate was predicted just four years after the London Independent assured its readers that “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.”

2020 PREDICTION: “Hillary. It’s her turn.” “She’s there in reserve. It’s a joke until it happens. DJT was a joke until it happened. The funniest thing may be the most likely thing. All the other candidates are bad. I’m not sure the extent to which I was joking. You can’t tell the difference between jokes and what’s real in America anymore.”

GOOD QUESTION: Could Machine Learning Be the Key to Earthquake Prediction?

COLORADO: State Lawmakers Aim To Temper Teen Vaping Rates With Big Tax Increases.

Gov. Jared Polis joined public health advocates and high school students at the state Capitol on Wednesday to announce HB 19-1333, which would ask voters in the fall to increase taxes on cigarettes and impose new taxes on nicotine vaping devices, like the popular JUUL.

“We have a moral imperative to reduce teen smoking and vaping. We have financial imperative for public health,” Polis said.

The governor said the new bill was personal to him. His partner’s mother, a lifelong smoker, died at 58 from lung cancer.

Under the proposal, vaping devices, the pods that contain liquid nicotine and tobacco products would be taxed at 62 percent of their wholesale price. The cigarette tax would more than triple.

That new revenue line would raise more than $300 million annually for Colorado.

Prediction: It won’t.

AN IDEA SO GOOD IT HAS TO BE MANDATED: National Trend to Mandate Renewable Energy as Major Power Source is Ill-Conceived and Foolish.

“Ever since Al Gore and his gang of climate scammers came on the scene in the 1990s, we have been fed a steady diet of lies and false predictions. We were told that the oceans would rise as the polar caps melted and that cities and states bordering the Pacific and Atlantic would be underwater. We were told that the corpses of polar bears who had drowned would be washing up by the thousands on the coast of Alaska. We were told that the human race was doomed by rising temperatures.

What’s most remarkable about the hoax is that there was a deadline announced. The apocalypse was to take place within a decade. Now, two decades later, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is giving us until 2030 to shape up or we’re all goners.

Even someone as cynical as I am would never have imagined that the con men and women would still be able to pass off this nonsense as gospel after all this time. The old line about whether you’re going to believe me or your lying eyes seems to sum up the situation pretty well.

People want to believe it, because “saving the world” can make anyone feel important. And politicians love it because of ample opportunities for graft, corruption, cronyism, and vote-buying.

WE ONLY HAVE TEN YEARS TO READ THIS COLUMN: When Earth Day Predictions Go Predictably Wrong.

HAPPY GROUNDHOG DAY! “Happy Groundhog Day Earth Day everybody! You can see how it is possible to confuse the two, since Earth Day is the same every year—we’re doomed unless you hand over complete power to the government to manage people and resources.”

QED: On Earth Day 1970, CBS’s Walter Cronkite Panicked: ‘Act or Die!’

More Earth Day predictions from 1970 here.

EARTH DAY PREDICTIONS OF 1970: The reason you shouldn’t believe Earth Day predictions of 2019.



(Classical reference in headline.)

PREDICTION: Now You Will Finally See Trump Fully Unleashed.


As Ari Fleischer tweets, “Today is the day the shoe moved to the other foot. This is a big deal. For two years, the media breathlessly covered, and acquiesced to, allegations against Trump, no matter how absurd. Now the allegations are against the Obama Admin. Why do I think the coverage will be different?”

SUNSPOT UPDATE: An Upcoming Grand Minimum? “The extension to the red curve above however reveals a great deal about the overall sense of that solar science community. While they do not yet wish to make a public splash announcing a new prediction, the bulk of that community appears to favor a very very long and weak minimum. That red curve predicts a minimum that is at least twice as long as any previously recorded minimum, with no indication when that minimum will end. In other words, solar scientists are now seriously considering the possibility that we are at the start of a Grand Minimum.”

Fallen Angels is just a science fiction novel, right guys? Right? Guys?

RICHARD FERNANDEZ: You never hear the one that gets you.

Our expectations of the future are set by the past. When Stephen Hawking died in 2018 his final warning to humanity was to beware artificial intelligence, climate change and a meteor strike from outer space. Although these are now familiar terms no newspaper editor before 1970 would have heard of them. Until the early 1980s global warming fears did not exist: it was global cooling the press warned about. The now familiar dinosaur killing Chicxulub impact crater was only found in 1978 by “geophysicists Glen Penfield and Antonio Camargo … as part of an airborne magnetic survey of the Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatán peninsula”. Fears of runaway AI only became mainstream in the 21st century. None of these fears are more than 40 years old.

If Stephen Hawking time traveled to whisper his final warning to Albert Einstein the 20th century genius would probably not have had a clue what the 21st century physicist was talking about. . . .

Maybe governments shouldn’t embark on 50 year plans given the revelatory power of new information. While people can’t help but express the future in terms of the past it is more than likely that politicians who embark on huge programs based on multi decade predictions will be sorely disappointed. It’s entirely probable we’ve never even heard of whatever will worry the world of 2080. Tomorrow, like the Russian sky, is full of surprises.

That Chinese one-child policy hasn’t worked out so well.

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: Beto O’Rourke Warns: Only 10 Years Left to Act on Climate Change.

Related: Good News! No Need to Have a Mental Breakdown Over ‘Climate Collapse.’

(Classical reference in headline.)

WAY TOO EARLY PRESEASON PREDICTIONS: Has Lucy Flores Just Handed Trump His Second Term?

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: Another Blow Against Climate Change — Major Greenland Glacier Growing. (Al Gore In Mourning?)

(Classical reference in headline.)


● Shot:

It’s not surprising that Buck v. Bell was decided in the Roaring Twenties, a decade even more culturally charged than the one we live in today. The Ku Klux Klan was riding a wave of anti-Catholic, anti-Semitic fervor, creationists were battling Darwinists over the teaching of evolution, and Prohibition was pitting rural Protestant values and prejudices against a looser, more diverse urban culture. In Washington, Congress was busily writing the most restrictive immigration law in our history, the National Origins Act, to protect the country from foreign contamination. In the words of The Saturday Evening Post: “If America doesn’t keep out the queer, alien, mongrelized people of Southern and Eastern Europe, her crop of citizens will eventually be dwarfed and mongrelized in turn.”

According to Thomas C. Leonard, who teaches at Princeton, the driving force behind this and other such laws came from progressives in the halls of academia — people who combined “extravagant faith in science and the state with an outsized confidence in their own expertise.” “Illiberal Reformers” is the perfect title* for this slim but vital account of the perils of intellectual arrogance in dealing with explosive social issues. Put simply, Leonard says, elite progressives gave respectable cover to the worst prejudices of the era — not to rabble-rouse, but because they believed them to be true. Science didn’t lie.

But barring undesirables was only half the battle; the herd also had to be culled from within. In 1907, Indiana became the first state to legalize forced sterilization, starting a landslide endorsed by progressive icons like Theodore Roosevelt and the birth control champion Margaret Sanger. And when eugenicists needed an ironclad case to bring before the Supreme Court, Virginia’s medical elite supplied it in the person of Carrie Buck.

‘Imbeciles’ and ‘Illiberal Reformers,’ the New York Times, March 14, 2016.

● Chaser: Having children is one of the most destructive things you can to do the environment, say researchers.

—Headline, the London Independent, July 12, 2017.

● Hangover (because hey, it’s the Independent): Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.

—Headline, the London Independent, March 20, 2000.

(Via Power Line.)

* No, there is another.  


Predictably, much of the doomsday rhetoric is focused on the issue of climate change. The United State must act now. Eliminate the filibuster. Enact the Green New Deal immediately to authorize trillions of dollars in new spending to reduce our country’s 15 percent (and falling) share of global carbon emissions, even though most Americans say they are unwilling to spend even $10 a month to accomplish that goal.

But absent some ambitious military campaign to carpet bomb Chinese and Indian industrial centers, it’s unclear how eliminating cars, euthanizing the U.S. cattle population, and installing solar panels on every single building in America is going to forestall the end of the world, should the most dire predictions prove accurate.

All the Democrats have to do is not be crazy, and they can’t even do that.™

But to paraphrase Kathy Shaidle on Trump as Hitler, I’m already on (at least) my fourth apocalypse.

MARTIN FELDSTEIN: The Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon: To avoid economic distress, the government has to reduce future entitlement spending.

The most dangerous domestic problem facing America’s federal government is the rapid growth of its budget deficit and national debt.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit this year will be $900 billion, more than 4% of gross domestic product. It will surpass $1 trillion in 2022. The federal debt is now 78% of GDP. By 2028, it is projected to be nearly 100% of GDP and still rising. All this will have very serious economic consequences, and the CBO understates the problem. It has to base its projections on current law—in this case, the levels of spending and the future tax rules and rates that appear in law today.

Those levels don’t match realistic predictions. Current law projects that defense spending will decline as a share of GDP, from a very low 3.1% now to about 2.5% over the next 10 years. None of the military and civilian defense experts with whom I’ve spoken believe that will happen, given America’s global responsibilities and the need to modernize U.S. military equipment. It is likelier that defense spending will stay around 3% of GDP or even increase in the coming decade. And if the outlook for defense spending is increased, the Democratic House majority will insist that the nondefense discretionary spending should rise to match its trajectory.

Which makes no sense. I’m still worried about this stuff, but I’m kind of resigned to nothing being done about it until there’s an inescapable crisis — which, of course, is the worst time to have to do anything about it, but the only possible time politically.

HMM: Is Elon Musk Osborning His Model 3?

First, a little background on The Osborne Effect:

In 1981, Osborne introduced a machine that was, in effect, the first commercially available portable computer, the Osborne 1.

Sales took off, reaching 10,000 units per month. This might not sound like much by our smartphone standards, but thirty years ago it was a truly phenomenal success.

This wasn’t enough for our fearless entrepreneur. In 1983, he told anyone who’d listen: Just you wait! I have two superior models in the works, the Executive and the Vixen.

Customers took his advice. They stopped buying the current model and waited…and waited… In 1985, the company ran out of cash and went bankrupt.

And now back to today:

The parallel with Tesla’s Model Y announcement needs little elaboration. Musk finally announces Tesla’s CUV, a model many will would prefer to the Model 3 sedan. No trouble if both are available simultaneously or in close succession. But the Model Y is promised for the “last quarter” of 2020, and the base model for “early 2021” — past Tesla performance easily explains the skeptical quote marks. First deliveries are 18 months away and manufacturing plans are glowingly vague.

This could be Tesla’s riskiest transition ever.

Musk is rightly known for escaping tight situations, so predictions might be a fool’s game.

BYRON YORK: With Mueller office emptying, dramatic predictions remain unfulfilled.

Last week John Brennan, the former CIA director turned Trump-bashing talking head, predicted a final flurry of indictments from Trump-Russia special counsel Robert Mueller. The big day, Brennan said, would be Friday, March 8.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if for example this week on Friday, not knowing anything about it, but Friday is the day the grand jury indictments come down and also this Friday is better than next Friday because next Friday is the 15th of March, which is the Ides of March,” Brennan told MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell. “And I don’t think Robert Mueller will want to have that dramatic flair of the Ides of March when he is going to be delivering what I think are going to be are his indictments, the final indictments as well the report.”

[March 8] came and went without new Mueller indictments, or at least new public indictments. And now comes news that Mueller’s top deputy, Andrew Weissmann — also known as the special counsel’s “legal pit bull” — will leave the office within the next few days.

Also, the FBI recently announced that Mueller’s top investigator, David Archey, has left Mueller to take a top job with the bureau in Richmond, Virginia.

The departure of not one but two of Mueller’s key staff — along with other aides who have moved on in recent weeks — fueled speculation that the special counsel is wrapping up his investigation. “[Weissmann’s] departure is the strongest sign yet that Mueller and his team have all but concluded their work,” said NPR, which first reported the news.

As always, it is dangerous to predict what Mueller will or will not do, but what are the chances that Mueller’s key people are leaving while he is preparing big, new prosecutions?

Well, stay tuned.


He’s also deeply undercutting his former boss. In January of 2009, the London Guardian ran the headline, “President Obama ‘has four years to save Earth.’” A couple of months later, Obama’s “Science” “Czar” John Holdren told AP that he took global warming so seriously that he was considering fighting the effects of pollution with, err, more pollution:

If things were so grim back then, why didn’t Obama and the Democrats who controlled both houses of Congress during Obama’s first two years in office do more to encourage him?

Now Rhodes claims that the effects of global warming are “irreversible.” So why ban farting cows and planes (or is it the other way around?), as the first draft of AOC’s “Green New Deal” manifesto demanded? And speaking of AOC, as Caleb Howe tweets, Rhodes’ complaint is ultimately self-correcting: “I thought Democrats said it’s immoral to have kids during global warming so .. problem solved?”

Earlier today, Glenn linked to the Babylon Bee’s latest headline: ‘Everything Is Bad And The World Is Ending And You Shouldn’t Have Kids,’ Says Party Of Progress.

The “Party of Progress” is where time has stood still for almost half a century. As Fred Siegel has noted at City Journal, since the first “Earth Day” in 1970, “Progressives” have been shouting that the world is ending and we shouldn’t have kids. For most of us, the doomsday-themed movies from the period are the late show camp rerun equivalent of Reefer Madness. For today’s “Progressives,” they’re how-to guides:

WAY TOO EARLY PRESEASON PREDICTIONS (PART DEUX): Welcome to the Donkey Dow — The winners and losers in the most crowded Democratic primary yet.

(Awesome alliteration in the headline, however.)

WAY TOO EARLY PRESEASON PREDICTIONS: The Dems Will Lose the House in 2020 — Anti-Semitism, socialism, and giving the vote to illegal immigrants is a losing agenda.

As we saw in 2016 and 2018, nobody should be getting cocky about their election chances.


● Shot:

Once, and not so many years ago, no New Yorker would have dignified a January with three chilly days in a row and a soggy spurt of whitish precipitation as winter. Winter in New York was a season of single-digit temperatures, icy winds whipping off the Hudson and snow forts that did not begin to melt until March.

That chilly stuff Thursday that melted as soon as it touched asphalt — snow? A sunny Friday afternoon in the 20’s — bitter cold? In Yazoo City, Miss., or Mobile, Ala., maybe. But not in New York City. Until now. Years of mild, rainy winters seem to be making New Yorkers hungry for the freezing winds and snow they deplored when it was plentiful.

* * * * * * * *

And Dr. Oppenheimer, among other ecologists, points to global warming as perhaps the most significant long-term factor.

—“Winter in New York: Something’s Missing; Absence of Snow Upsets Rhythms Of Urban Life and Natural World,” the New York Times, January 15th, 2000.

● Chaser:

New York City public schools will be closed on Monday because of the winter storm that’s expected to dump heavy snow on the area.

The steadiest periods of snow are expected beginning late Sunday night through the pre-dawn hours Monday. New York City issued a Hazardous Travel Advisory that will be in effect through Monday.

City officials warned that conditions could be hazardous for the Monday morning commute, and advised commuters to take mass transit instead of driving if possible.

“The critical time of the snowfall is on the overnight,” said Emergency Management Commissioner Joseph Esposito. “But I think our most critical time will be tomorrow’s rush hour..that’s why we’re urging people stay off the roads.”

—“New York City public schools closed Monday due to winter storm,” WABC News, today.

WABC’s parent company wasn’t predicting such a headline a decade ago: “FLASHBACK: ABC’s ’08 Prediction: NYC Under Water from Climate Change By June 2015.” Curiously though, the network brass never bothered to move their corporate headquarters from its tony Upper West Side address, despite the apocalyptic reports being broadcast from their news division.

But that apocalypse is still on its way! As another New Yorker recently reminded us, we only have 12 years left, so why shouldn’t ABC enjoy Manhattan while they still can?

(Headline via the London Independent in 2000.)

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: Following record snowfall, people in Northern Arizona digging out the snow.

(Classical reference in headline.)

ART OF THE DEAL: New York Sun: ‘Sometimes You Have To Walk.’

The collapse of President Trump’s summit with the North Korean party boss, Kim Jong Un, certainly takes us back — to October 12, 1986. That’s when President Reagan stood up and walked out of the Reykjavik summit with another party boss, Mikhail Gorbachev, of the Soviet Union. We can remember it like it was yesterday. The long faces, the dire predictions, the Left’s instinct to blame the Americans.

“What appears to have happened in Iceland is this,” the New York Times editorialized. “Mr. Reagan had the chance to eliminate Soviet and U.S. medium-range nuclear weapons in Europe, to work toward a test ban on his terms, to halve nuclear arsenals in five years and to agree on huge reductions later. He said no.” The Times just didn’t see that the Hollywood actor turned president had just won the Cold War.

It’s too early in the morning — this editorial is being written at 3 a.m. at New York — to know whether that’s the kind of thing that just happened at Hanoi, whence news reports are just coming in. Messrs. Trump and Kim were supposed to have a working lunch, to be followed by the signing of some sort of agreement. The next thing you know, Mr. Trump is heading home.

It’s all part of the process. Trump is demonstrating that, unlike previous American presidents, he won’t go for a deal just to announce that he has a deal. He’ll get what he needs out of the deal or he won’t do the deal at all.

COLOR ME UNENTHUSED ABOUT PREDICTIONS FOR 80 YEARS IN THE FUTURE: Study: Most nations could eliminate cervical cancer by 2100.

SHARYL ATKISSON ASKS THE RIGHT QUESTIONS ABOUT THE DEEP STATE: The former CBS News reporter is suing the government to find out who ordered the intrusion of her computer and other surveillance that appears to bear some disturbing resemblances to the Russia Collusion Scandal.

Writing for The American Thinker, Atkisson asks some highly pertinent questions:

“Who is behind the move to use government surveillance tools against innocent Americans? Do some of these officials still work inside the government? Were some of them the very same officials now implicated in alleged surveillance abuses during Campaign 2016?”

Prediction: The answers to the first question will provide the answers to the second and third. Given what’s already on the record in both the Atkisson case and the Russia Collusion Scandal, one need not be “conspiracy theorist” to see where this is going.

And yes, there is an appeal for financial support in Atkisson’s post. To understand why, read her explanation for why merely printing a brief for the federal court system costs not $20, not $40, but $4,367.70. Justice is not cheap anymore, friends.

PREDICTION: Watch for Virginia Democrats to come out with something, anything, on some Virginia Republican as a distraction. It won’t matter if there’s anything to it or not, expect the press to treat it as gospel. This Virginia stuff is killing them, and they’ll do whatever it takes to change the subject.

SO ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT TRUMP’S SPEECH LAST NIGHT is how it seemed calculated to demolish all the standard anti-Trump tropes from the media and from the left and to do so with compelling imagery. Consider:

Trump’s a Nazi: Praise for Holocaust survivors, and a touching rendition of “Happy Birthday.” (With Trump waving his fingers like a conductor).

Trump hates minorities: Brags about record low black, Hispanic, and Asian unemployment — while white-clad Democratic women, overwhelmingly white themselves, sat prune-faced.

Trump’s a Russian tool: Withdrawing from the INF Treaty.

Trump’s a warmonger: Without me, Trump says, we’d be at war on the Korean peninsula. Also, I’m looking at pulling out of Afghanistan.

Trump hates women: Except he got even the prune-faced white-clad Democratic women up dancing (and chanting “USA! USA!”) when he talked about record female employment in and out of Congress.

And his rebuke to socialism was designed to strip the glamour that the media have tried to imbue it with by tying it to the abject misery of Venezuela.

In debate, I think this is called cutting across your opponent’s flow. And I think it’s Trump’s opening shot at 2020, as well as an effort to undercut the “Resistance” in and out of Congress. Plus, as Ann Althouse notes, despite the predictions of lefties like Robert Reich (see below) it was all wrapped in optimism and sunny American exceptionalism. Genuinely Reaganesque.

And, of course, the sour, shallow responses from the lefty apparat just underscore that:

But outside the apparat, it played well even with a lot of people who didn’t vote for Trump:

Ouch, indeed:

UPDATE: I remember when Robert Costa was supposed to be a conservative:

CHANGE YOU’LL BE REQUIRED TO BELIEVE IN: Land, jobs are top priorities for radical S. African party.

A former ANC member, Malema founded the EFF in 2013, and his radical programme rules out “compromises” allegedly agreed to by ANC leaders with the white minority.

Malema, 37, has begun to eat away at ANC support amid chronic unemployment that now stands at 27 percent of the workforce.

But his keystone issue is land redistribution.

“The economy is in the hands of the white community, we want to change that,” he told the crowd to cheers and raised fists.

“We are going to place all land under the custodianship of the state, for equal redistribution to all,” he pledged.

Prediction: They’ll take the land and lose the jobs — but that’s an easy one.


● Shot: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.

—Headline, the London Independent, March 20, 2000.

● Chaser: UK weather forecast: Met Office warns of heavy snow as temperatures to hit -12C on coldest night of year.

—Headline, the London Independent, today.


(Classical reference in headline.)

LINDSEY GRAHAM 2.0 STILL KICKING AOC: Lindsey Graham fires back at Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (eco-doomsday prediction & socialism hardest hit).

Heh, indeed.™

“CLIMATE CHANGE:” Is there anything it can’t do? Shot:


HAWKING RADIATION UPDATE: We Just Got Lab-Made Evidence of Stephen Hawking’s Greatest Prediction About Black Holes. But there’s this: “There are other problems with stimulated Hawking radiation experiments; namely, they are rarely unambiguous, since it’s impossible to precisely recreate in the lab the conditions around an event horizon.” Well, yes.

NEW SOCIALIST “IT GIRL” CONTINUES TO PAY DIVIDENDS: It’s the new final countdown! Ocasio-Cortez on Millennials: ‘We’re Like the World Is Going to End in 12 Years if We Don’t Address Climate Change’

Mankind has made remarkable progress — 12 years is two years longer than the last final countdown:

But isn’t it all academic? In addition to everybody dying from Trump’s tax cuts, net neutrality, and Brett Kavanaugh being seated on the Supreme Court, all these earlier final countdowns surely finished civilization off:

President Obama ‘has four years to save Earth.’

—The London Guardian, January 17, 2009.

Warming expert: Only decade left to act in time.

—NBC News, September 14, 2006.

U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked:

A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.

Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco- refugees,” threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP.

He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.

—AP, June 29, 1989.

And finally, this classic:

EARLIER TODAY, A STUDENT ASKED ME WHAT I THOUGHT TRUMP WOULD DO: Offer something reasonable that the Democrats won’t go for, I replied. And that seems to be what he’s doing:

President Donald Trump proposed a deal to end the government shutdown that continued his demand for $5.7 billion in funding for his border wall, but contained what he suggested was a concession to Democrats: three years of protections for immigrants who were brought to the country illegally as children and those who fled certain countries and are covered under the “temporary protected status” program.

“This plan solves the immediate crisis, and it is a horrible crisis,” Trump said in an address to the nation, delivered from the Diplomatic Room at the White House. “And it provides humanitarian relief, delivers real border security and immediately reopens our federal government.”

Trump said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has agreed to put his proposal into a bill and bring it up on the floor by the end of next week.

Democratic leaders in Congress declared the plan dead on arrival, issuing a spate of statements based on early news reports of what Trump intended to propose.

The Democrats have gotten themselves into a position where they can’t accept the wall because of its symbolic-win value for Trump, almost no matter what else he offers. A journalist friend messages:

Trump is a genius. He took away DACA so he could give it back. If they don’t give him the wall, they screw the DACAs.

And the ongoing shutdown is their fault. He just grabbed their compassion card.

Prediction: His support among DACAs and Latinos will go up.

Well, the Democrats have made clear that they value people who haven’t crossed the border (illegally) yet more highly than people who are already in this country. Or, alternatively, that they hate Trump more than the love the “Dreamers.”

UPDATE: Thoughts from Trent Telenko.



● Shot:

A hamburger a week, but no more — that’s about as much red meat people should eat to do what’s best for their health and the planet, according to a report seeking to overhaul the world’s diet.

Eggs should be limited to fewer than about four a week, the report says. Dairy foods should be about a serving a day, or less.

The report from a panel of nutrition, agriculture and environmental experts recommends a plant-based diet, based on previously published studies that have linked red meat to increased risk of health problems. It also comes amid recent studies of how eating habits affect the environment. Producing red meat takes up land and feed to raise cattle, which also emit the greenhouse gas methane.

—“The world needs a diet overhaul, expert panel says,” CBS News, Thursday.

● Chaser:

By the end of [1969], [lefty historian Douglas] Brinkley writes, “now that Neil Armstrong had walked on the Moon, Cronkite sensed that ecology would soon replace space exploration as the national obsession.” It certainly became, for a time, Cronkite’s obsession, often crowding out other more newsworthy stories during the critical year of 1970. At the beginning of the year, Cronkite jumped onboard the radical environmental movement wholeheartedly — “God damn it, we’ve got to get on this environmental story” — and as his producer Ron Bonn said at the time, “We wanted to grapple first with air pollution, the unbreathable air. But then we wanted to deal with the primary underlying problem, which was overpopulation.”

In April of that year, two days before the first “Earth Day” Cronkite began a regular series on the CBS Evening News portentously titled, “Can The World Be Saved?,” as the American left first began to dial up the volume of its eco-crankery to 11. To accompany those segments, Bonn created a backdrop consisting of the legendary photograph the astronauts of Apollo 8 took of planet earth, with his hand placed in front of the photo clutching the globe. “We were trying to show humanity squeezing the Earth to death,” according to Bonn.

Brinkley notes that this photo quickly became informally known as “The Hand Job” amongst the backstage production crew of Cronkite’s broadcast, much to its true-believer host’s chagrin. “We’ll need the hand job, tonight!” Which in retrospect, seems like the perfect description of the masturbatory nature of radical environmentalism.

—“Walter Cronkite: Liberalism in the Guise of Objectivity,” quoting from Douglas Brinkley’s 2012 biography of Walter Cronkite, Ed, March 16, 2014.

● Hangover: And That’s the Way It Was: In 1972, CBS’s Walter Cronkite Warned of ‘New Ice Age.’

NewsBusters, March 5, 2015.

As Glenn wrote last night, “It doesn’t matter what the problem is, the solution is always for us to give the government more money and power, while we eat less meat.”

No wonder that Sonny Bunch wrote a couple of weeks ago in the Washington Post,Environmentalists make good movie villains because they want to make your real life worse.”

SHORTER VERSION: “WILL ELITES EVER RESPECT VOTERS?” Michael Barone: Will elites ever respect voters’ decisions on Brexit and Trump?

As the gifted British political analyst Douglas Murray writes in National Review, “Instead of accepting the votes and trying to learn from them, elites have expended almost all their available energies trying to pretend that voters in 2016 were bad or duped. The past two years could have been spent trying to learn something or build something. Instead, the best minds of Left and Right have spent their time making claims of ‘racism,’ ‘Russia,’ and ‘Cambridge Analytica.’”

The unlearning continues. Here, the government (actually, less than one-quarter of the federal government) is “shut down” over Democrats’ resistance to Trump’s demand for funding the border wall — er, barrier — which he negligently failed for two years to obtain from the Republican-majority Congress.

Most Democratic politicians — and, polls show, many Democratic voters — favored border barriers before Trump’s victory. Now, they insist walls are “immoral” and ineffective.

The struggle over Brexit is more complex in Britain. One thing is clear: the incompetence of Prime Minister Theresa May. May voted against Brexit and her pledge that “Brexit means Brexit” has been undermined, purposefully or by blunder, in her negotiations with the European Union.

The EU’s unelected leaders are loath to see Britain leave, and insisted on terms including a 39 billion pound exit fee and a binding customs union with a backstop preventing Britain from leaving without EU approval: more like “No Exit” than “Brexit.”

May’s deal was voted down Tuesday in the House of Commons by an astonishing vote of 432-203, the biggest rebuke for a government for a century, and she survived a no-confidence vote Wednesday by a pathetic 325-306 margin.

What comes next is unclear. Under 2017 legislation, Britain leaves the EU next March 29 and, if there’s no agreement with the EU, will come under the low-tariff rules of the World Trade Organization. Elites predict this “hard Brexit” will produce dreadful economic woes. Their similar predictions after the 2016 referendum conspicuously failed to come about.

The problem with “elites” on both sides of the Atlantic is that they’re not especially elite. As Peggy Noonan says, we are despised by our inferiors.


● Shot: 10 best snow boots to help you beat any winter storm.

—Headline, the London Independent, last Wednesday.

● Chaser: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.

—Headline, the London Independent, March 20, 2000.

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: Heavy snowfall causes chaos across Europe as two snowboarders die in avalanche.

(Classical reference in headline.)


SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: REALLY?? If you saw ‘Trump imperils the planet’ trending on Twitter, here’s why (Hint: The Gray Lady is ALARMED).

(Classical reference in headline.)

DECLINE IS A CHOICE: A fare-beater crackdown is just what New York needs.

Today, Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr.’s decision not to prosecute subway-fare theft threatens to undo the gains. When he announced the new policy in February, Vance touted it with lofty rhetoric about “civil, rational enforcement.” Declining to take farebeaters to court, he said, would save money, promote fairness and proportionality, and improve safety by allowing cops to fry bigger fish.

But the evidence from the first nine months is already casting a pall on these sunny predictions — and foreshadowing a return of the bad old days underground.

Earlier this month, NYC Transit, the division of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority that oversees the subways, revealed that it had lost $215 million this year to “fare evasion.” That’s up from $105 million in 2015 and amounts to 88 percent of the MTA’s projected budget deficit for 2019.

Yes, the data came in the form of a preliminary estimate, as a spokesman for the DA was quick to emphasize. But the spike was high enough to suggest that farebeating in Manhattan under Vance’s lenient regime is at least a significant factor in the losses, as NYC Transit boss Andy Byford told the City Council.

Michael Bloomberg keeping most of Rudy Giuliani’s “Broken Windows” crime policies in place made New York livable again. Naturally, Bill DeBlasio wants a return to the bad old days.

THIS IS GOING TO MAKE A LOT OF LEFTY ENTHUSIASTS SAD: Cuba’s government said Tuesday that language promoting the legalization of gay marriage will be removed from the draft of a new Constitution after widespread pushback against the idea.

Prediction: You’re more likely to see the Western Hemisphere under a Catholic integralist state than a woke leftist regime. Not that I want either.

PREDICTION: California’s High Speed Rail Project Will Collapse Within Four Years.

Only if they can’t get a federal bailout.

THE BIG ONE IN AMERICA’S HEARTLAND: The big earthquake, in the New Madrid (Missouri) Seismic Zone. But don’t start quaking in your running shoes and try to escape to Texas because it’s comparatively geologically stable. Here’s why: In 1971 I heard a very informed discussion of the New Madrid Fault, which is centered in New Madrid. In one geologist’s opinion, that unfortunate “piston” (the word he used) could have generated a mega-quake some time in the 1970s or early 1980s. That mega-quake did not occur. However, the geologist was not making a prediction — he was assessing the fault’s instability based on data he had seen. That noted, I still recall the description of the 1811 New Madrid mega-quake.

This linked article sketches the disaster:

Back in 1811, New Madrid, Missouri, itself had only 400 people, St. Louis to the north had about 1,500 residents and Memphis to the south wasn’t even a twinkle in its founders’ eyes, according to the Central United States Earthquake Consortium. Damage was reported as far away as Charleston, South Carolina, and the District of Columbia; and the quakes, estimated at 7.5 to 7.7 magnitude, were felt more than 1,000 miles away in Connecticut.

The article includes this 21st century assessment:

Seismologists estimate that the New Madrid Seismic Zone has a 25 percent to 40 percent chance of producing a significant quake within the next 50 years, according to Lexington-Fayette Urban County Government. USGS studies have concluded that the zone has generated magnitude 7 to 8 earthquakes about every 500 years for the past 1,200 years.

Read the entire article — it’s an accessible description of the geological threat. As for escaping to Texas, please stay away. It’s absolutely terrible down here. We have hurricanes and tornadoes and sweltering summers and gazillions of feral hogs. The worst of it: increasingly terrible traffic thanks to tax migrants fleeing California.

I’M NOT SAYING I’M COMPLETELY CONVINCED, BUT I DID BUY A NEW DOWN PARKA: The Latest on the Double-Dynamo Solar Model, and Dr. Zharkova’s Predictions of a Grand Minimum.

But hey, Fallen Angels is just science fiction, right guys? Right? Guys?

HUFFPO: Conservative Columnist Has A Wild Prediction For Trump’s Final Minutes In Office.

The “conservative” in question is Jen Rubin.

PRESEASON SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS: Three Reasons Beto is the Democrats’ Candidate to Beat in 2020.

Read the whole thing — and welcome back Bryan Preston to PJM.

DISPATCHES FROM THE NEWSPEAK DICTIONARY: ‘Bringing home the bacon:’ Idioms referencing meat may become obsolete as veganism rises.

To be fair, this is a headline from the London Independent, which doesn’t exactly have the best track record in the world when it comes to future predictions. But as Jim Treacher tweets, “These people toughed it out during the Blitz. What the hell happened?”

Somebody should write a book on that topic — and Peter Hitchens already has.

PATENTLY OFFENSIVE: Inventor accuses Patent Office of unconstitutional blackballing.

An elderly tech inventor is accusing the federal government of personally targeting him to block him from patenting his life’s work.

Anyone who uses a computer or television has enjoyed the fruits of Gil Hyatt’s labor. He has pioneered technology and computer programming used by Panasonic, Sony, Philips, and Toshiba. He poured the licensing fees back into the lab where he has continued his research for decades. But beginning in the mid-1990’s, Hyatt said the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (PTO) began enforcing a blockade against his patent applications. The agency, his suit claims, went so far as to create a dedicated group of regulators committed to delaying numerous applications until the 80-year-old inventor expires.

“The PTO founded what the agency calls the ‘Hyatt Unit’ in 2012 for the purpose of miring all of Mr. Hyatt’s applications in administrative purgatory until Mr. Hyatt gives up or dies,” the suit says.

Prediction: Even if this is proved to be true, no one will be fired.


● Shot: Thanksgiving: US northeast to experience one of the coldest ever November holidays — Snow and rain may hit the midwest region as well.

—Headline and subhead, the London Independent, today.

● Chaser: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past.

—Headline, the London Independent, March 20, 2000.


● Shot: Exhausted commuters point fingers after crippling snowstorm.

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) — The first snowfall of the season lingered Friday in the Northeast as thousands of exhausted commuters pointed their fingers at politicians and meteorologists for leaving them creeping along highways or stuck in mass transit hubs because of a storm that left seven dead as it moved through the Midwest and South.

Some students in West Orange, New Jersey, were forced to sleep at their schools after their buses turned back, while others were taken to a diner to eat because snow-covered roads were clogged with traffic Thursday.

—The Associated Press, today.

● Chaser: U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked.

A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.

Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco- refugees,” threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP.

He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.

—The Associated Press, June 29, 1989.

(Classical reference in headline.)



President Obama ‘has four years to save Earth.’

—The London Guardian, January 17, 2009.

Warming expert: Only decade left to act in time.

—NBC News, September 14, 2006.

U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked:

A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.

Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ″eco- refugees,′ ′ threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP.

He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.

—AP, June 29, 1989.

And finally, this classic:

PREDICTION: PENN WILL CAVE RATHER THAN FACE DISCOVERY ON ITS ADMISSION STATS. Conservative professor mulls defamation suit against Penn for saying she made up black student stats.


While you’re waiting for the results, the PJM Live Blog is being regularly updated, and here is Monty Python’s classic election night sketch. I wonder what the numbers are like in Harpenden Southeast?

ASKING THE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS: Does antimatter fall upwards? New CERN gravity experiments aim to get to the bottom of the matter.

Predictions say that antimatter particles should mostly follow the same rules as their normal counterparts, but it’s worth double-checking to be sure – after all, any other differences could bring into question the entire Standard Model of particle physics. A few years ago, the CERN team trapped and studied the optical spectrum of antihydrogen for the first time and, breathing a big sigh of relief, found that it was identical to that of hydrogen.

Another fundamental question is whether antimatter reacts to gravity the same way. Again, predictions say it should fall like regular matter, but there’s about a one-in-a-million chance that it actually falls up instead. So far, antimatter has only been studied while suspended in an electromagnetic trap, since letting it fall to the bottom (or top?) of any normal container will destroy it.

Two new experiments at CERN are ready to test out the problem. In both cases, after the antimatter is created, the scientists will switch off the electromagnetic traps holding it, then examine where in the tube the annihilations occur. That will allow them to measure the effects of gravity on antiatoms, and see if there are any discrepancies.


ROGER KIMBALL: The Democratic faithful are spooked about Tuesday: How will the blue-dyed media react if results do not go their way tomorrow night? Disgracefully, is my prediction.

‘YOU’LL GET TIRED OF WINNING.’ YET ANOTHER FAILED PREDICTION FROM DRUMPF: Veteran unemployment rate hit near-record low in October.

(Classical reference in headline.)

WELL, ARE YOU? Are You a ‘Shy Trumper’? “These silent Trump supporters may upend predictions by experts for the mid terms.”

BLUE WAVE? Cook Political Report outlook: Democrats gain 30-40 seats in House, up from 25-35. “Wasserman added that this prediction could change before the Nov. 6 midterm elections.”

That’s just a few days from now and early voting is breaking records, so I’m taking that last line as an indicator that they don’t really know.

SNOWFALLS WILL SOON BE A THING OF THE PAST: It’s Already Snowing at the Nurburgring.

(Classical reference in headline.)

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: NY AG Files Ridiculous Climate Change Lawsuit Against Exxon Mobil.

(Classical reference in headline.)

BLUE TSUNAMI OR BLUE SPLASH?:  John Fund’s report is somewhat more optimistic than I am about the GOP’s chances of retaining the House.  But judge for yourself.

Meanwhile, I’ve been getting a deluge of emails from left-leaning political organizations.  I got one yesterday that said Cruz and O’Rourke are “officially tied” and asked for more money.  Note that if a corporation made a similar statement about its business prospects it would be sued for securities violations and fraud.

PREDICTION: BEFORE THE CENTURY IS OUT, AETHER WILL TURN OUT TO BE A THING. The Eternal Quest for Aether, the Cosmic Stuff That Never Was.

PREDICTION: BASICALLY ZERO PRESS COVERAGE. Uh oh: Woman claims “unwanted” sexual advance by Senate Dem in “late 1980s.” “Shall we go by the old rules or the new rules? Rep. Jim Renacci’s (R-OH) Senate campaign has highlighted a claim by an anonymous woman that incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) might have sexually harassed or assaulted her in the late 1980s. The Renacci campaign has released a statement from the woman’s attorney, who says the victim has indirect support of her claims.”

WELL, LET’S SEE IF THIS PREDICTION DOES BETTER THAN SOME OF THIS OTHERS: Nate Silver forecasts Republicans have better chance of reaching at least 54 seats than Democrats have of taking over the Senate.

MORAL POLLUTION IN PLACE OF REASONED CRITIQUE: At Quillette, Pamela Paresky, chief researcher and in-house editor for The Coddling of the American Mind by Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt quotes a passage from their new book predicting how its authors would be attacked by identity politics-obsessed critics, and then notes that the “Grauniad” chose just that response:

In fact, we can make a prediction right now, while writing this book in 2017: Most of the negative reviews and responses to this book will at some point note our race and gender and then directly assert or vaguely hint that we are racists or sexists who are motivated primarily by the desire to preserve our privilege. We will then respond in the spirit of Mark Lilla, the author of a critique of identity politics titled The Once and Future Liberal. Lilla, an avowed liberal who wrote his book to help the Democrats start winning elections, responds to repeated name-calling by saying, essentially, “That is a slur, not an argument. Make an argument and I’ll respond to it.”

So far, The Coddling of the American Mind has received generally positive reviews from writers on the Left, Right, and center. A notable exception is a review by Moira Weigel titled “How Elite US Liberals Have Turned Rightwards.” It appeared in the Guardian, and illustrated the tactics we predicted.

A Fisking ensues, which is well worth reading.

SNOWFALLS ARE NOW JUST A THING OF THE PAST: The UN climate-change panel that cried wolf too often.

(Classical reference in headline.)


You’d think if the climate science were settled, they’d get at least one prediction right.

CONTRARY TO PREDICTIONS MADE BY… ABSOLUTELY NO ONE: A Woman Is Helming Doctor Who, and the World Has Not Collapsed.


● Shot: Terrifying climate change warning: 12 years until we’re doomed.

—The New York Post, yesterday.

● Chaser: President Obama ‘has four years to save Earth.’

—The London Guardian, January 17, 2009.

I blame the Frisbee ion.

Classical reference in headline:

Related: “But the self-anointed must make a choice. Either the plane is going down — in which case literally everything else is unimportant — or the plane is fine and flying, and Al Gore, et al., have been using climate change the way apocalyptics always do: as a means of dividing them from us, sinners from saints, those whose lives matter and those who lives don’t.”


It’ll be all judicial restraint all the time — until there are five solid lefty votes again.

PREDICTION: Kavanaugh Will Join The Supreme Court And Republicans Have The 2018 Momentum. Here’s Why.


And there’s the strangely assertive Lindsey Graham 2.0:

And it makes me think about what Trump’s game was. I would have rather he picked one of the more libertarian members of his list: Willett, or maybe Kethledge. And because some sort of trumped-up #MeToo thing was almost certain, a lot of people thought he should have picked Amy Coney Barrett. Kavanaugh was a fine, safe pick, but kinda milquetoasty DC Establishment for my taste.

But that was the reason to pick him. Trump knew he’d been vetted enough that there would be no real skeletons, and he no doubt expected that the Democrats would be so desperate they’d invent some. They would have done that with anyone he put up — but, precisely because Kavanaugh was a milquetoasty DC Establishment type, seeing the Democrats go into full batshit assault mode on him galvanized the other milquetoasty DC Establishment types. You could see the lightbulbs go off in their heads: The Democrats don’t hate Trump because he’s Trump. They hate all Republicans and want to ruin them. Even me! And they always will.

The result is that the Kavanaugh affair has welded the Trump and NeverTrump forces (except for a few sad outliers who don’t matter) into a solid force. And it’s simultaneously galvanized GOP voters around the country, closing the “enthusiasm gap,” as the normals become more militant. Plus, it seems that minority voters aren’t as excited about empowering neurotic upper-class white feminists as you might — well, actually, I guess they’re just about exactly as excited about empowering neurotic upper-class white feminists as you might expect, but it seems Dems didn’t give that much thought. So Kavanaugh was, in fact, the perfect pick to trigger this reaction.

I’m reminded of the scene in Absence of Malice where Wilford Brimley asks Paul Newman, who has cleverly set a trap that the press and the rogue DOJ guy fall into, “Are you that smart?”

I mentioned this analysis to the Insta-Wife, a Trump fan who has followed him closely since the 1980s and her comment was, “Of course.”


MORE: Seen on Facebook: “‘You’ll get tired of winning.’ Yet another failed prediction from Drumpf.”

THE ACLU HAS JUST BECOME A DEMOCRATIC PARTY SUPER-PAC: The ACLU Sponsors an Ad Comparing Brett Kavanaugh to Bill Cosby and Harvey Weinstein: Such nakedly political propaganda is beneath the civil liberties organization. This may be an effort — part of Larry Tribe’s strategy described here — to make Kavanaugh recuse himself from all sorts of cases once confirmed. Prediction: It won’t work. See, e.g., Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

But it’s another example of Trump’s miraculous ability to take once-respected institutions and reveal them as the festering, wormy pustules of partisan corruption they’ve become.

SEXUAL ASSAULT WAS A MISDEMEANOR UNDER 1982 MARYLAND LAW: Worse yet, for Christine Blasey Ford, there was a one-year statute of limitations for filing a complaint against Brett Kavanaugh, who, she now claims, sexually assaulted her sometime in the early 1980s during a high schoolers’ party at a house somewhere in Maryland’s Washington, D.C. suburbs. The local police chief and state’s attorney also say the location of the alleged crime must be known.

But here’s the good news for Ford: Local Democrat officials in Montgomery County, Maryland, where the alleged assault occurred, don’t think their law enforcement officials should worry about minor details like the fact Ford hasn’t filed a complaint as the victim.

Prediction: Next, these Democrats will clamor for ignoring the Constitution’s ban on ex post facto actions so that Kavanaugh can be charged under present law, which classifies sexual assault as a felony. And then they’ll say why bother with formal charges, just “arrest” Kavanaugh and throw him in the slammer for the rest of his life. After all, survivors must be believed, right?


The White House is considering a draft executive order for President Donald Trump that would instruct federal antitrust and law enforcement agencies to open probes into the practices of Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Facebook Inc., and other social media companies.

Bloomberg News obtained a draft of the order, which a White House official said was in its early stages and hasn’t been run past other government agencies. Separately, Lindsey Walters, deputy White House press secretary, said in an emailed statement that the document isn’t the result of an official White House policy making process.

The document instructs U.S. antitrust authorities to “thoroughly investigate whether any online platform has acted in violation of the antitrust laws.” It instructs other government agencies to recommend within a month after it’s signed, actions that could potentially “protect competition among online platforms and address online platform bias.”

Trump could be a trust-buster like Teddy Roosevelt!

THE NOBEL PRIZE FOR BAD ECONOMIC PREDICTIONS: Continually Mistaken, Chronically Admired. From his admiration of Hugo Chavez’ economic policies to his predictions about Fannie Mae, Joseph Stigliz has proven that you don’t have to be correct to be a celebrated left-wing economist. (To be fair, Paul Krugman deserves priority for this discovery.)