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IF YOU LIVE IN THIS WORLD, YOU’RE FEELING THE CHANGE OF THE GUARD: Eight elected officials announce party switch, join Mississippi Republican Party.

Related: Poll: Democrats underperforming with black voters. But don’t get cocky. November is a long time away.

DON’T GET COCKY: A new swing state poll paints an ominous picture for Democrats.

In a Quinnipiac survey of registered voters released Thursday, Trump beats all of the major 2020 Democratic contenders in the key state of Wisconsin by between 7 and 11 percentage points, with frontrunner Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) seven points away from Trump in the state.

The major Democratic contenders fare better against Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan, where all of them are beating the president, although the margins in Michigan are generally more narrow. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) beats Trump by four points in Pennsylvania and five points in Michigan.

Wait until Trump starts hitting the nominee on their promise to ban fracking (they’ve all promised to ban fracking), which is the best thing to happen to Pennsylvania since the ’70s Steelers.

CHANGE: ‘National satisfaction’ reaches 15-year high, ‘greatly increases’ Trump reelection. Don’t get cocky, kids.

NICE POLL, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Trump takes 2020 lead, 52%-48%, all Democrats ‘probably lose.’

DON’T GET COCKY: Bloomberg, Democrats’ circular firing squad must have made Trump smile.

YEAH. WHATEVER. DON’T GET COCKY. BEATING THE DEMS ISN’T HARD. IT’S BEATING THE FRAUD…  The State of the Race: Democrats In Despair?

DON’T GET COCKY: Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected; Sanders Overtakes Biden Among Dem Voters. “Enthusiasm up from 2016, but with a partisan gap.”

Mind the gap:

Currently, 39% of American voters say they feel more enthusiastic than usual about the 2020 election, 21% say they are less enthusiastic, and 40% say they feel about the same level of enthusiasm as they have in past elections. In August 2016, 21% were more enthusiastic, 46% less enthusiastic, and 31% about the same. All partisan groups feel more enthusiastic than they did four years ago, including Republicans (47% more enthusiastic now versus 32% in 2016), Democrats (36% now versus 20% in 2016), and independents (34% now versus 15% in 2016).

“Enthusiasm is up compared to 2016, but optimism has split along party lines. These conflicting findings in public opinion seem to reflect the muddled state of the race on the Democratic side right now,” said Murray.

That last line was a bit of unnecessary (not to mention lame) spin. If Democratic voters can’t get enthused about the huge field of candidates they have to choose from, that says more about the quality of the field than it does about anything being “muddled.”

MARK LEVIN:

President Trump is politically stronger today than at anytime since entering politics. The Democrat Party-press and their Democrat comrades have failed miserably in their relentless and depraved coup efforts. No wonder they look manically depressed and sound insanely unhinged. They’re a force for darkness and despair, dystopia and chaos. Meanwhile, however, through it all, the president is racking up major accomplishment after major accomplishment, a steady stream of unprecedented successes. And due to his leadership, the nation is truly thriving. Americans are proud and overwhelmingly happy with their personal lives. Patriotism is back. Respect for America overseas is back. And I am sure if President Reagan were with us, he’d tip his hat to President Trump and with a smile tell him — terrific job my friend. Keep it up. It’s morning in America again.

Stay tuned. And don’t get cocky, kids.

JOHN HINDERAKER: Why Trump Will Be Re-Elected in One Data Point.

Gallup has some fascinating poll data on Americans’ views of their own financial well-being. The headline sums it up: “Record-High Optimism on Personal Finances in U.S.”

Gallup finds that 59% say they are better off than they were a year ago, as opposed to only 20% who say they are worse off. Those are great numbers–interestingly, we are so divided that political affiliation makes a big difference even on a simple question about one’s own finances–but that isn’t the data point I mean.

The most striking finding is this one: 74% say they expect to be better off a year from now than they are today, the highest such finding Gallup has ever recorded.

Don’t get cocky, kids.

DON’T GET COCKY: The impeachment ‘sea change’ shows Trump can beat anyone in 2020.

QUESTION ASKED AND ANSWERED:

Shot: The test: Can Democrats flip the most watched Republican district in Texas?

—The Houston Chronicle, yesterday.

Chaser: GOP poised to dash Democratic hopes of bellwether win in Fort Bend, TX.

Republican Gary Gates on Tuesday appeared headed to a smashing victory over Democrat Eliz Markowitz in a special runoff election for a vacant state House seat in the Houston suburbs, where Democrats hoped an upset win would kick-start efforts to wrangle control of the Texas House in 2020.

In the early vote, Gates, with 10,707 votes, was leading Markowitz, who had 7,461 votes, 59% to 41%.

If he prevails when all the votes are counted, Gates will serve the unexpired term of state Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond, who announced in mid-summer that he was stepping down from representing House District 28 in Fort Bend County. The race for a full term in the House will take place in November.

The contest in Fort Bend, where Beto O’Rourke lost in his 2018 bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz by 3.14 points, was the 16th best prospect on a list unveiled by Texas Democrats on Monday. The list contains 22 seats that Democrats are targeting in hopes of flipping the nine they need to gain control of the House and the speakership ahead of redistricting in the next session.

Markowitz’s defeat was also a setback for O’Rourke, whose surprisingly strong run against Cruz has become the yardstick of success for heightened Democratic ambitions in Texas in 2020, but whose deep personal involvement in recent weeks working on behalf of Markowitz and drawing volunteers from across the state and the nation to Fort Bend County may have proved a mixed blessing at best.

* * * * * * * *

Gates was always the favorite to win the runoff. But his consultant Craig Murphy said that O’Rourke’s presence, as well as campaign appearances on behalf of Markowitz by former presidential candidate Julián Castro and presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, and endorsements by two other candidates — former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren — nationalized the campaign in unproductive ways for Democrats.

—The Austin Statesman, this evening.

Still though, don’t get cocky, to coin an Insta-phrase.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Steven Hayward: The State of Things for Dems: Gloomy & Getting Gloomier.

SEEN ON FACEBOOK:

Don’t get cocky, kid. Ruth Ginsburg is the Keith Richards of the judiciary.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump is holding all the cards this November.

He has the ability to thoroughly dominate media coverage with one 280-character tweet.

No matter what reporters want to report on, from impeachment to the Emoluments Clause, Trump can change the subject to what he wants to talk about.

He ups the ante with each tweet, making grandiose and often ridiculous statements.

The whole controversy over the supposed targeting of Iranian cultural sites is a case in point.

Nobody seriously thinks that the American people (or the military) would allow the president to target historically or religiously significant sites to punish the Iranians.

And yet the president mentions it, and the media goes nuts.

Trump baited the press all the way to the White House, yet they still fall for it every single time.

Not very bright, are they?

VDH: WHY TRUMP WILL WIN AGAIN IN 2020. There is a growing wrath in the country, either ignored, suppressed or undetected by the partisan media.

It is easy to say that 2020 seems to be replaying 2016, complete with the identical insularity of progressives, as if what should never have happened then certainly cannot now. But this time around there is an even greater sense of anger and need for retribution especially among the most unlikely Trump supporters. It reflects a fed-up payback for three years of nonstop efforts to overthrow an elected president, anger at anti-Trump hysteria and weariness at being lectured. A year is a proverbial long time. The economy could tank. The president might find himself trading missiles with Iran. At 73, a sleep-deprived, hamburger-munching Trump might discover his legendary stamina finally giving out. Still, there is a growing wrath in the country, either ignored, suppressed or undetected by the partisan media. It is a desire for a reckoning with ‘them’. For lots of quiet, ordinary people, 2020 is shaping up as the get-even election — in ways that transcend even Trump himself.

Don’t get cocky, but millions of Americans are well-aware, that as Trump himself tweeted last month:

DON’T GET COCKY:  Why Trump Will Cruise to Victory Next Year.

DON’T GET COCKY: How Democrats lost the Impeachment War — and probably 2020.

And a related item from Bill Whittle: Impeach Trump: The Democrat Party’s 2020 Election Concession Speech.

DON’T GET COCKY: Heartland Poll Shows Voters Decisively Reject Socialism and Socialist Candidates.

DON’T GET COCKY: Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon Predicts Trump ‘Will Be Re-elected in 2020.’

DON’T GET COCKY: The latest battleground poll tells us Democrats are over-correcting for 2020 — and they can’t beat Trump that way.

The three key states, based on the 2016 results, are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Trump became the first Republican since 1984 to win Wisconsin and the first since 1988 to win Pennsylvania and Michigan. The narrow margin of around 70,000 votes in all three states was enough to win the electoral college and sweep Trump into office.

Democrats must win those states to defeat Trump, who doesn’t care if he doesn’t win the popular vote. The problem, however, is voters in those states may not want to go all in with Sanders’ or Warren’s big spending plans, which include Medicare-for-All.

On Medicare-for-All, it is not difficult to see the message from the GOP and Trump as the campaign moves into 2020. While PA, MI, and WI are no longer the manufacturing powerhouses they were 40 or 50 years ago, they still employ a decent number of union workers who have great healthcare benefits through their employers. How will they react to getting presented with a proposal that will take away their private plan and put in the hands of the federal government?

For many people, even those inclined to vote for Democrats, words that still make them cringe are, “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”

Whether people want to credit Trump or not, the reality in politics is that the person in the Oval Office gets the credit or blame for the economy. With the unemployment rate at 3.6 per cent, low interest rates, no inflation, and a stock market that is humming along, Democrats have to convince voters Trump doesn’t deserve another term as re-election races are almost always a referendum on the incumbent.

Another Trump advantage: He always looks like he’s having fun on the campaign trail. Every single one of the Democratic contenders is a real eat-your-peas type.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Prediction Market Favoring Trump Over Democrats. If you want to make a difference, forget the prediction markets and go volunteer at a campaign.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Voter Enthusiasm for 2020 Is Off the Charts — Especially for Trump Fans.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Marcellus Fracking Means Farewell to Dems in 2020.

Fracking does not cause earthquakes. Nor does it taint well water. The mixture used to fracture shale is in fact a benign blend of 90% water, 9.5% sand, and 0.5% chemicals such as the sodium chloride of table salt and the citric acid of the orange juice you had for breakfast.

Shale formations in which fracking is employed are thousands of feet deep. Drinking water aquifers are generally only 100 feet deep. There is a lot of solid rock between them.

It is fracking that has produced a boom in the production of natural gas, a fossil fuel that has produced a significant reduction in the U.S. of so-called “greenhouse gases.” . . .

The Democrats have no case, moral or otherwise, for banning fracking, which would ironically hurt the environment they allegedly want to heal while creating an economic collapse. If they insist on advocating, they will be caught between shale rock and a hard place.

Read the whole thing.

DON’T GET COCKY: Elizabeth Warren the front-runner? That’s great news for Republicans.

DON’T GET COCKY: Moody Election Model Has Some Very Bad News for 2020 Democrats.

TRADE WARS ARE FUN AND EASY TO WIN: Cramer on Trump vs. China: ‘Hate him or like him, he has them where he wants them.’

UPDATE: From the comments: “The Chinese must have decided Trump is going to be re-elected.” Don’t get cocky. Until election day, they assumed Hillary would win. But yes, I think that’s one of the things this means.

TWO TAKES ON THE SYRIA DECISION THAT DISAGREE WITH THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: (1) Security Studies Group: The Syria Decision.

As we warned at the time, the American position was much more exposed and much less tenable than was commonly understood. . . .

Just as allowing Iran to run wild hurts China much more than it hurts the United States, China is harmed by our allowing the Turks to provoke an insurgency that will bedevil the stability of the very region where China intends its massive investments. The wars that China’s own allies are starting are going to be the biggest tax on China’s growing power and influence, which means it will become China’s problem — and not America’s — to stop those wars. That means that China and Turkey, and not America, will end up paying the cost of Middle Eastern security. The danger they face is that they will overextend themselves, and provoke fights they cannot walk away from in the process. It may be a bigger burden than Erdogan or Xi imagine that they are taking on here.

It is unlikely that President Trump thinks so strategically or so ruthlessly. More likely he is simply convinced that these wars drain American blood and treasure in an unacceptable way, and he just intends to stop doing it whatever it costs.

(2) Trump’s Syria withdrawal bravely puts America First, the establishment last. “His decision will stop risking American lives and wasting taxpayer dollars on policing Middle East politics. This is long overdue, seeing as our security goals in Syria have already been accomplished. To recap, the U.S. military first intervened in the Syrian conflict in 2014. Our goal was to destroy the Islamic State Caliphate, as the terrorist group had built up territorial control of much of the conflict-ridden region. Mission accomplished.”

Well, I’m fine on reducing our commitments to the region. Trump’s diplomatic approach has the Arab world allied with Israel, and Saudi Arabia liberalizing internally. And thanks to fracking, the mideast isn’t that important to us anymore. On the other hand, the Kurds are good people, and I don’t like leaving them hanging, which is what this looks like to me. On that point, I’m in general agreement with Tom Rogan: “We relied upon the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and other Kurdish militias in order to substantially degrade ISIS. Yes, Western special operations played a crucial role in this effort. But the Kurds took the brunt of the casualties. And the Kurds kept fighting alongside us even after their northern heartlands had been retaken. Their tenacious courage saved American lives by denying ISIS the space and time to plot attacks against Western homelands.”

UPDATE: Two more: Walter Russell Mead: Trump’s Jacksonian Syria Withdrawal.

Explaining his decision to pull U.S. troops away from the Turkish-Syrian border at the cost of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, and open the way for Turkish forces to create what Ankara calls a “safety zone,” President Trump tweeted early Monday that “it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home.” . . .

Mr. Trump isn’t the first U.S. president to try to hold America back from a Middle East conflict. President Obama made a similar, and similarly hasty, decision in 2013 when he chose not to respond to Syria’s violation of his chemical weapons “red line” with a military strike. Many of the same people criticizing Mr. Trump today criticized Mr. Obama then, and the subsequent course of the Syrian war underlined both the humanitarian and the strategic case against Mr. Obama’s decision. Mr. Trump’s Syria decision may also prove to be a mistake, but it should give the establishment pause that two presidents as different as Messrs. Obama and Trump reached similar conclusions about the political risks in the Middle East.

The U.S. may be the most powerful actor in the region, but it can’t resolve the economic and social conflicts that destabilize the Middle East. As long as this is the case, those who want presidents to commit to long-term military engagements, however limited and however advantageous, must expect a skeptical hearing in the Oval Office.

Plus: Syria Could Be Turkey’s Vietnam. “Erdoğan may talk about a terror threat emanating from northern Syria, but he has yet to prove that one exists. Quite the contrary: Not only were Syrian Kurds the most effective indigenous fighting force against the Islamic State, there is also overwhelming evidence that Turkey cooperated, profited from, and at times coordinated with Syria’s Al Qaeda affiliates and the Islamic State. . . . Erdoğan may be cocky, but he could be falling into a trap. Turkey’s drones may give it a qualitative military edge in mountains and rural regions but may be of substantially less utility in the northern Syrian cities if limiting collateral damage is any concerns. The Kurds have extensive experience fighting on the ground. Meanwhile, recent political purges of the Turkish military make the Turkish Army a shell of its former self. With Kurdish insurgents voluntarily going into Syria at Turkey’s request as part of the previous peace agreement, Syrian Kurds simply have no place to go. A century ago, Turkish forces slaughtered the Armenians by marching them into the desert to their deaths; the Kurds refuse to be the sequel. Turkish invasion and ethnic cleansing—Turkey’s stated purpose is to settle a couple million Arabs in the region—will spark insurgency in northeastern Syria and across Turkey.”

Things have changed in the mideast, but when your decisions about Syria are compared to Obama’s, it’s not a good sign.

Plus, it’s a NATO thing.

I am speaking, of course, of president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is, increasingly, Turkey’s effective dictator. But it’s crucial to emphasize that these are Nato forces. This not only means they are supplied with state-of-the-art weaponry; it also means those weapons are being maintained by other Nato members.

Fighter jets, helicopter gunships, even Turkey’s German-supplied Panzer forces – they all degrade extremely quickly under combat conditions. The people who continually inspect, maintain, repair, replace, and provide them with spare parts tend to be contractors working for American, British, German or Italian firms. Their presence is critical because the Turkish military advantage over Northern Syria’s “People’s Defense Forces” (YPG) and “Women’s Defense Forces” (YPJ), those defenders of Kobane that Turkey has pledged to destroy, is entirely dependent on them.

That’s because, aside from its technological advantage, the Turkish army is a mess. Most of its best officers and even pilots have been in prison since the failed coup attempt in 2016, and it’s now being run by commanders chosen by political loyalty instead of competence. Rojava’s defenders, in contrast, are seasoned veterans.

Plus:

DON’T GET COCKY: Happy retirement, Speaker Pelosi.

DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats toss Biden aside in zeal to impeach — ensuring Trump’s reelection.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Conrad Black: Why Donald Trump will win big in 2020.

MICHAEL GOODWIN: Pelosi’s impeachment flip-flop changes everything.

In surrendering to the radicals and the noisy drumbeat of their media handmaidens, Pelosi established a formal investigative process involving the top legislative committees.

Yet she did something else, too, something far more monumental: She effectively committed House Dems to impeaching President Trump.

Because of what she said and did, if the House doesn’t go all the way, it will be a political disaster. Either failing to take a vote on articles of impeachment, or failing to get enough votes among her majority to pass any articles, would be seen as a political exoneration for Trump, likely leading to his re-election.

Don’t get cocky.

That aside, maybe the only thing to the Democrats’ kamikaze wing worse than not going ahead with an impeachment inquiry would be an unsuccessful one.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: 2020 Vision Wednesday: Trump raised $15 million in California in one day. That should worry Democrats.

NICE SPECIAL ELECTION, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Roll Call: Why the GOP victory in North Carolina spells disaster for Democrats in 2020. “House Republicans are now 3-0 in special elections this cycle and, in all three races, the GOP nominee outperformed the 2018 result. In Pennsylvania’s 12th and North Carolina’s 3rd districts, Republicans even outperformed President Donald Trump’s 2016 numbers.”

NICE COLUMN, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Trump in a Landslide: Here’s Why.

THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS: The Media’s no good, very bad week (and what’s coming next).

I think this week is a harbinger of things to come. Why? Because the Mueller report didn’t work out as Democrats and the media hoped. There’s no public appetite for impeachment. Progressives are getting nervous and the NY Times has signaled privately and publicly, through its 1619 Project, that the 2020 election will be all about racism because that’s the best chance Democrats have to activate their base.

So what’s coming next? A lot more careless mistakes by the usual suspects looking to drag Trump and the GOP down. What this week demonstrates is that many of them care less about their credibility than ensuring the desired outcome. This isn’t really new of course. In fact, some version of this happens every four years. See dog-abusing-vampire-capitalist-with-80s-foreign-policy Mitt Romney for a previous example.

Which dovetails well with Tucker Carlson and Neil Patel’s look at how things went this week with the Democratic Party operatives without bylines, aka the politicians: Crackup in the Democratic Party.

Imagine you’re Biden’s political director, sitting offstage. All of a sudden, Biden wanders into the unscripted territory and says, “Imagine the assassination of Obama.” This is not an attack on Biden, but he’s not going to be the nominee. So the actual race comes down to Warren’s and Sanders’ competing visions of how to achieve the same socialist fantasy. Warren is promising reparations based on skin color. That’s popular. Sanders wants a government takeover of the entire energy sector. They will be working to out-crazy each other for the next six months. That is a dynamic guaranteed to produce even more extremism. And it has some Democratic leaders worried. The Democratic National Committee voted on a proposal to hold a debate focused exclusively on climate change. Why wouldn’t they? Well, because the solutions the candidates would promise live on television are insane: spend $16 trillion, ban airplanes, seize control of the entire U.S. economy.

The Trustafarians love stuff like that. Normal people find it terrifying. Even the party hacks here in D.C. don’t like it, and that’s probably a compliment. Do you really think Nancy Pelosi believes climate change is an existential crisis? Of course, she doesn’t think that. Plus, she flies private. Obama can say whatever he wants about carbon emissions. He can shake his chin and be concerned, but when you’re spending 15 million of your own dollars on a beachfront estate on Martha’s Vineyard, you’re not too worried about the oceans rising. But the Democratic base doesn’t get the joke. Democratic primary voters believe the talking points. And very soon, they will be powerful enough to nominate their own presidential candidate. And when that happens, it’s going to be a very different party.

Nobody should be getting cocky in this election cycle.

Classical reference in headline, from a time when the left still viewed satire as a weapon, before the revolution devoured its own.

DON’T GET COCKY: GOP Smashes Another Fundraising Record in July.

THAT’S NICE, BUT DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS. A ‘recession dashboard’ from Credit Suisse indicates the economy is nowhere near a recession.

DON’T GET COCKY: Joe Biden won’t win.

DON’T GET COCKY: Sean Trende: Yes, The GOP Should Worry About Texas.

MARK ELLIS: Don’t Get Cocky, But Things Look Good for Trump.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump’s economy is on fire, but Democrats aren’t so hot (and that’s why he’ll win in 2020).

Bill Clinton ran in 1992 claiming the brief ’90-’91 recession (which had ended before the election) was the worst economy since the Great Depression. And the media helped him sell that fake news. So it doesn’t really matter to the media what the economy does between now and November, 2020 — they’ll tell whatever story they think will help put a Democrat in the White House.

DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats and Republicans agree — Donald Trump will be re-elected.

DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats are trying their best to keep Trump in the White House. Jon Gabriel’s column in the Arizona Central.

JOHN NOLTE: Democrats Just Had Their Worst Week in 47 Years. “Not since the 1972 discovery that George McGovern’s vice presidential pick, Thomas Eagleton, had been hospitalized and given electroshock treatments have the Democrats had a worse week than the one we just concluded.”

The Fake News Media Is the Only Shrinking Institution in America’s Booming Economy

Before 2019 is over, there will be upwards of 12,000 job cuts within the American media. That’s 12,000 fewer Democrat foot soldiers; 12,000 fewer propagandists, serial liars, cheerleaders, and toadies to hold Antifa’s jacket as they beat elderly Trump supporters to death with crowbars.

Every industry in Trump’s America is expanding and thriving … except for the media.

What’s more, the Democrats primary propaganda outlet, the far-left CNN, is hemorrhaging viewers like an Ebola victim hemorrhages solid foods.

Where’s your god now, Jeff Zucker?

Democrats Lost “The Sane One” Joe Biden

Slow Joe will always be the stupid one, the gaffe machine on the verge of imploding, but he has now openly embraced gun confiscation, taxpayer-funded abortions, the banning of every gun currently being manufactured (except those stupid “smart guns”), raising everyone’s taxes, and putting an end to deportations of illegal immigrants. And now, we don’t really know where Creepy Joe stands on awarding health insurance to illegals and decriminalizing illegal immigration because he’s flip-flopping all over the place on those two.

The so-called “sane one” is an aging moron ready to take our guns, ban all the others, and force us to pay for an illegal alien’s abortion.

Much more at the link, but as always, don’t get cocky.

WELL, HAVE YOU SEEN THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD? Why Trump has reason for optimism in 2020. But don’t get cocky, kids. If you care, you’re better spending your time as a campaign volunteer than surfing the Internet.

DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats Just Had Their Worst Week in 47 Years.

SEE, THIS IS WHY I SAY DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Zogby: Trump behind in battleground states key to 2016 victory.

Related: Trump’s Way To Victory.

WINNING: Democrats fear Trump, Republicans are making inroads with Hispanic voters in Florida.

The usual “Don’t get cocky™” disclaimer aside, Trump’s not-so-secret weapon is going after the other side’s base. Reagan was a master at that, too, but every GOP candidate since then has preemptively surrendered yuge blocks of voters.

Maybe that’s a bit unfair to George W. Bush, who did make some plays towards black and Hispanic voters, but not nearly to the degree Trump does — and much less aggressively, too.

HMM: Rush Limbaugh Has A Nasty Reality Check For Joe Biden.

“Imagine if you’re Joe Biden last night,” said Rush (transcript via RushLimbaugh.com). “You’re Joe Biden last night, and your advisers come in, and they say, ‘Joe, don’t sweat it, don’t sweat anything that happened last night. What happened last night doesn’t mean anything, Joe. The debates are the only thing that matter, Joe, and you’re gonna wipe the floor with this guy, Joe. You’re gonna wipe the floor about him in the debates, and you got the big money behind you, Joe. You got fundraisers, you’re setting records all over. Joe, don’t sweat this stuff last night.’”

But then came a tweet from Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel early Wednesday morning: “Donald Trump has raised a record-breaking $24.8 million in less than 24 hours for his reelection,” she announced. “The enthusiasm across the country for this president is unmatched, unlike anything we have ever seen.”

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: 797 Trump reelection ‘watch parties’ set, six times the number of #ImpeachTrump events.

Here’s why you shouldn’t get cocky: Swing states: Biden dominates, Trump’s reelection in trouble.

CHRISTOPHER ROACH: 2020 Has Echoes of 1996 for the Opposition Party.

The objective facts favor Donald Trump’s reelection for many of the same reasons Clinton was a favorite in 1996. The economy is doing quite well, and his tax cuts and regulatory reforms appear to be at least part of the reason.

Of course, he has not delivered on his main campaign promises, but he appears to his supporters at least to be trying, even in the face of bipartisan resistance. His deviations from promises appear aligned with rather than opposing public opinion.

Also, Trump rather decisively defeated ISIS’s caliphate in Syria, but has so far avoided calls for getting involved in another Middle Eastern war. Even Obama could not avoid this temptation, in spite of running as the “peace candidate” in 2008.

In short, we were warned that Trump would destroy the economy, the norms of good governance, and possibly act recklessly with his “finger on the button” in the event he became president. Instead, everything feels quite normal, prosperous, and predictable.

The gap between the Democratic Party’s hatred of Trump and his results mirrors the chasm between Republican Party’s Clinton hatred and the relatively modest evils of Clinton’s first term as president. Then, as now, there is some “outrage fatigue” among ordinary Americans, who are not nearly as partisan or engaged as the political press, volunteers, and donors who follow politics like a sport in both parties.

More important, by combining this background of ideological fervor and a “ho hum” candidate, Dole failed to excite the base, even as Republican rhetoric alienated those in the middle and within the Democratic Party.

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Biden Beating Trump in Texas? We’ve Heard This Story Before.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump Finally Has the Wind at his Back.

DON’T GET COCKY: Why Joe Biden can’t win.

DON’T GET COCKY: Three Modelers Predict Trump Will Be Reelected.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: 3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: SpaceX Starlink Will Equal Launch Revenue in 2020 and Will Make Elon the World’s Richest Person by 2023. But actually, I hope this is true. If it is, there’ll be lots of other people investing in space development.

CHANGE? Theresa May on track for the worst General Election result in Tory Party history – as Brexit Party is predicted to win more votes than Labour and Conservatives COMBINED in European elections, polls say.

In an Opinium poll in the Observer, focused on this month’s European elections, Nigel Farage’s new party is predicted to hoover up 34 per cent of the vote. The same poll gave Labour 21 per cent and put the Tories in a miserable fourth place with 11 per cent

But an even more extraordinary poll, commissioned by a Brexit Party donor and published in the Sunday Telegraph, said for the first time the Brexit Party would beat the Tories in a General Election.

The ComRes survey of voting intentions put Brexit on 21 per cent to the Conservatives’ 20, which would see Farage’s team win 49 seats, becoming the UK’s second biggest party after Labour, with 137.

Don’t get cocky, of course, and this election is only for the European Parliament, not the actual British Parliament. Even so, Tories ought to weight this advice heavily: “If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.”

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Trump captures Biden’s blue-collar, older voter base.

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s hope of riding the support of blue-collar workers and older voters to the White House has hit a wall called President Trump.

In a survey of key battleground states conducted after Biden entered the 2020 Democratic primary, Trump not only has a 46%-44% edge, but he has a 26-point lead among non-college educated workers earning $75,000 or less, considered the blue-collar base and a Biden target.

What’s more, the battleground state survey from WPA Intelligence showed that Trump does better with Biden’s other main support group, older voters, and has a 48%-44% lead over Biden in Florida, dubbed the Democrat’s “firewall.”

Well, Trump has been a successful President. Biden was an unexceptional Vice President.

ROGER KIMBALL: It doesn’t matter who Trump runs with: he’ll still win in 2020.

I realize we’re talking about Trump here, but still, as Glenn says, don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Four Reasons Why the Dems Will Lose in 2020.

The nation is actually doing quite well under President Trump, although you could never tell if your news comes from MSNBC, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, collectively the propaganda wing of the Democratic Party. Those manufacturing jobs we were told were gone? They are back. That 3% GDP that eluded Trump’s predecessor has returned and been exceeded. Those young black men who could not find work previously? They have found it now. That wealth disparity that Brother Bernie goes on and on about? It has diminished in recent years. Those flat wages? They have increased. Those who gave up looking for jobs? Many have now found the work that eluded them. Such positive news is always downplayed by the media and the Democrats.

The Democrats do best when the nation does poorly.

Remember in ‘92, Bill Clinton said; “It’s the economy, stupid”. When he said that, he did not have the facts regarding the economy on his side, but the message was clear: The economic condition will play a key role in determining the outcome of the election. Today that plays into President Trump’s hands.

Yeah, but I remember the press falling all over themselves to go along with Clinton’s claim that the short and relatively mild recession of late-1990/early-1991 was the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression — even though it was over before the campaign began.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: The Trump 2020 campaign is much, much more formidable than 2016.

RICK MORAN: Forecasting Model that Predicted Trump Win in 2016 Shows the President in Good Shape for 2020. “It won’t matter who the Democrats run if the economy is experiencing modest growth.”

Great model. Don’t get cocky.

CONRAD BLACK: Democrats in 2020: Unelectable Nonentities. “It is now almost too late for the Democrats to shift lanes into plausible electability.”

Don’t get cocky, kid.

CONRAD BLACK: Donald Trump’s Annihilation of the Democratic Party. Nice speech, kid. Don’t get cocky.

RASMUSSEN: Generic Congressional Ballot’s All Tied Up.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead. Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one until early last month. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.

The GOP now has a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But significantly, 20% of these voters remain undecided or prefer someone other than the Republican or Democratic candidates.

In other words: Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Poll: Trump Hits Record High Approval Rating with Black Voters Amid BLEXIT Launch.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Smart money is on Republicans keeping control of House, betting site odds say.

UPDATE: I said not to get cocky. Three well-known sites have DEMOCRATS favored to win House. Meanwhile, a friend on Facebook posts: “What am I doing this afternoon? Well, so glad you asked: I’m making thousands of phone calls to NC Republicans and asking them if they know where their polling place is; do they need a ride to the polls; is there someone they know who needs one; would they like a Republican voter guide (or at least see if they understand the other ballot proposals)… Hook up with your (largely useless) GOP locally and do what you can – everything (and I do mean EVERYTHING) hinges on these midterm elections!”

DON’T GET COCKY, BUT I ADVISE YOU VOTE AS LATE AS YOU CAN AND LIE TO ALL POLLSTERS:  Early Voting: Don’t Get Complacent.

USA TODAY: President Trump’s approval rating hits new high as Democratic lead shrinks in tight races, poll says. Don’t get cocky, kids.

AND DON’T GET COCKY:  Don’t Get Cocky: Republican Election Hurdles for November.

WORRIES AT THE NEW YORK TIMES: What if the Republicans Win Everything Again? Total victory for the G.O.P. would mean Trump unleashed.

Related: “Anyway, R+6 in the Senate is, if not crazy, pretty close to it. But it says something both about the awfulness of this map for Democrats & where things have gone since Labor Day that it’s October 19 & R+6 is still not a possibility you could totally rule out.”

Well, don’t get cocky, kids. If you care, you should be volunteering and donating.

DON’T GET COCKY OR COMPLACENT. EVEN IF YOU LIKE TO PICK AND CHOOSE, THIS YEAR VOTE STRAIGHT GOP. THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AS CURRENTLY CONSTITUTED IS A CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER TO THE REPUBLIC AND WILL NOT CHANGE EXCEPT THROUGH PERSISTENT DEBACLE:  ‘Blue Wave’ Ebbing? Dem Advantages Offset by Strong Economy.

IT COULD HAVE A LOT TO DO WITH THE WAY THE MOB THE DEMS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING. THREATS OF VIOLENCE INCREASE NEED FOR DEFENSE: Poll: Support for Gun Control Drops Ahead of Midterm Elections.  But remember how wrong the polls were in 16. So even if it seems to favor us, don’t get cocky.  Don’t answer polls, or lie, vote as late as you can, and if you can in person (if they don’t know how many votes to manufacture we get to surprise them) but above all VOTE.

YES, SURE, BUT REMEMBER CRAZY TACTICS WORK ON THE INSANE AND DON’T GET COCKY:  The Democrats Must Be Defeated.

BLUE WAVE? Polarization Seems to Be Helping Republicans in Run-Up to Midterms. “Energized voters on the right dim prospects for big Democratic gains in red districts and states.”

Nate Cohn:

The fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court seems to have contributed to polarizing the electorate, helping Republicans gain in red states and districts even as Democrats cement their strong position elsewhere. The trend might fade, but if it holds it will be an abrupt change from earlier polls and last year’s special election results, which indicated that Democrats were highly competitive in red areas.

Instead, the district and state polling raises the possibility of an election more like last year’s Virginia elections or the 2010 midterm elections. Both were strong results for the party out of power — but the big numbers came mainly on home turf. A similar result this year would tend to lock the Democrats into their single biggest disadvantage: the map.

The Democratic geographic disadvantage is so severe that it gives the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election, like the 1994, 2006 and 2010 elections that flipped control of the House.

Don’t. Get. Cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall, a new CNBC poll says.

BLUE WAVE: ABC: Generic Ballot In Battleground Districts Is … R+1? Nice poll, kid. Don’t get cocky.

Related: Salena Zito: A Republican red tide is pushing back against the Dems’ blue wave. “If people like Westbrook and Vogel coalesce around the GOP, the Democrats could be in trouble. And if the Democrats keep supporting people who claw at the doors of the Supreme Court in protest, or harass Republicans and their families at dinners, or talk nonstop about impeachment or echo Hillary Clinton’s sentiment that: ‘You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for,’ then they may do what I thought unlikely: stop their own blue wave mid-flow.”

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Pollster Zogby: Dem House win ‘far from certain, elusive,’ Senate ‘nearly impossible.’

But if it turns out that way, this is why: Trump’s list: 289 accomplishments in just 20 months, ‘relentless’ promise-keeping.

Related: Marc Thiessen: Trump could be the most honest president in modern history. To be fair, that’s a low bar to clear. “For better or worse, since taking office Trump has done exactly what he promised he would do.”

NEW YORK TIMES: Why New Jersey Democrats Are Suddenly Worried About the Menendez Race. Don’t get cocky, kids.

So what are the Senate races where an injection of volunteers and donations might make a difference? I have some ideas, but I want yours.

DON’T GET COCKY:  CBS News pollster reveals why ‘blue wave’ is unlikely.

DON’T GET COCKY:  So much for the ‘blue wave’ in Florida.

DON’T GET COCKY: It’s Been A Bad Week For Liberals.

DON’T GET COCKY:  Blue Wave Missing in Action.

REPUBLICAN TROY BALDERSON WINS BELLWETHER OHIO SPECIAL ELECTION.

Link is to the NYT, but here’s how Drudge plays it:

Related: Socialist star Ocasio-Cortez strikes out: All endorsed candidates lose Tuesday primaries.

Don’t get cocky, kids. The Ohio race shouldn’t have been this close.

BLUE WAVE? In Deeply Blue New Jersey, an Unexpected Battle for Senate.

Facing a deep-pocketed Republican challenger, a blitz of negative ads and lingering concerns over a lackluster performance in an uncontested primary, Mr. Menendez’s race has started to concern some Democrats. After weathering a criminal indictment and a harsh ethics rebuke from his Senate peers, Mr. Menendez may find himself in a tough enough re-election fight that will force the party to devote money and energy needed in other races critical to the party’s quest to retake Congress.

In theory, Mr. Menendez, 64, should win easily: Registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by nearly 900,000; President Trump remains deeply unpopular; contested congressional races are energizing Democrats; and he has the backing of a Democratic machine that still has enough clout to deliver victory.

But despite the advantages, Mr. Menendez has shown signs of weakened support.

I wonder why that is…

In any case, don’t get cocky.

DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT GETTING COCKY:  All Hands on Deck for Operation Midterms.

PAUL BEDARD: Pollsters: Trump knows ‘how to win,’ would beat 2020 liberal ‘decisively.’

Democratic pollster John Zogby doesn’t care much for many of President Trump’s policies and thinks the man is rude, but he’s also coming to the conclusion that the Republican has something very big going for him.

“Some people just know how to win,” said Zogby, who didn’t think Trump would make it out of the Republican primaries in 2016.

After two years of polling on Trump, Zogby said that the president is emerging as an unusual non-politician who has confounded his critics and even his own party leaders by succeeding on an aggressive agenda that has pleased his supporters.

He compares Trump to three former presidents, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, and Theodore Roosevelt, who entered office to shock from the ruling elite. “With all three there was sense by the elites that this was the end of the world,” said Zogby.

But like them, Trump has connected with many in the country by battling the ruling powers. In his latest John Zogby Strategies poll, 54 percent view Trump as one “who is fighting the Washington, D.C. establishment,” compared to 26 percent who view him as an insider. He revealed the results in his Forbes Magazine column.

It is part of what Trump campaign pollster John McLaughlin called the president’s profile as the “blue collar billionaire,” a leader standing up to Washington, and last week NATO, for taxpayers and workers.

“If you are a working class person, it feels to you that he is fighting for you,” McLaughlin said. “He’s their president.”

New polling from Zogby’s son Jonathan, who conducts the trademarked Zogby Poll, revealed that feeling is true even among some Hispanics and African Americans. His polling shows that a sizable portion of minorities feel positive about their lives and future finances under Trump, something that his father John Zogby said could “lessen the fervor to say, ‘We’re going to Hell, I’ve got to get this guy out of there.’ ”

While Trump’s critics suggest that there has never been such a threatening president, Zogby said that the same charges were filed against Jackson, Lincoln and Roosevelt, and they won reelection. “They don’t remember that we’ve been here before. There is precedent,” he said.

Well, don’t get cocky, kids.

WORRIES AT SALON: New poll spells doom for Democrats’ dreams of a blue wave: Three Senate Democrats are running behind their Republican challengers — leaving Democrats worried about the fall.

Don’t get cocky, kids. And if you care about what happens, find a close race and donate or volunteer.

BLUE WAVE? Heidi Heitkamp faces reality of losing seat as race re-classified to ’tilt Republican.’

The classification increases the pressure on Heitkamp, who has been busy forging herself as a moderate Democrat not afraid to work with President Donald Trump and Republicans while fighting for the interests of North Dakotans.

Heitkamp has been forced to move toward the center because she’s defending a seat in a state that Trump won by more than 30 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016. To make matters worse, Heitkamp endorsed Clinton during the 2016 presidential race, an endorsement she has since rescinded.

When Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement, Heitkamp’s plate became even fuller. To appease North Dakota voters and help herself in November, Heitkamp will likely be forced to vote against her party and in favor of whoever Trump nominates to the Supreme Court.

To put it kindly, Heitkamp is vulnerable and Inside Elections’ analysis only confirms what political observers predicted about the race.

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Beware The Red Wave.

But however skewed Rasmussen’s poll sample might be, that 74 percent number indicates the Democrats are in serious trouble if they actually believe a far-left push is the key to winning those mid-term elections. It isn’t. It is a complete invitation to disaster. The Rasmussen poll isn’t the only one recently offering an indication the Democrats are on the absolute wrong track this year. In another, this one from Reuters/Ipsos, the Dems are cratering among the millennials they’re trying to build their party around — dropping from 55 percent support over Republicans two years ago to 46 percent now. And among white millennials the numbers are catastrophic. Two years ago with white voters between 18 and 34, Democrats held a 47-33 edge over Republicans; now it’s 39-39. And with white male millennials it’s an almost unimaginable swing; what was a 48-36 Democrat advantage is now a 46-37 GOP edge.

Dems are underperforming among Hispanics this year, too. But November is still a long way away, and if you want to have an impact, you should get involved in a campaign — not necessarily where you live, but where it will make the most difference.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Roger Kimball: The Left Is Slipping into Terminal Irrelevance.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Trump ‘bullish’ on midterm elections, poll shows ‘rising tide’ for GOP.

Buoyed by the support he sees for his policies outside the Beltway and new polls showing a “rising tide” for Republicans, President Trump is growing more confident that his party will retain control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections.

“He’s pretty bullish,” said Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy, who traveled on Air Force One to Trump’s sold out rally in Duluth, Minn., Wednesday. . . .

Once poised to deliver a knockout blow to the White House, Democrats have seen their advantage lessen in midterm election polls. The latest Suffolk University/USA Today survey found Trump’s approval ratings increasing and the gap between House Democrats and Republicans shrinking.

There’s still a lot of time before November. And if you care what happens, you should be donating to, or better yet volunteering for, a candidate you like.

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: Michael Barone: California results suggest blue wave has crested and ebbed. Don’t get cocky, kids. And remember, you can do much more good picking a campaign to donate to and volunteer for than you can by tweeting or posting blog comments.

DON’T GET COCKY:  In the midterms, even those who dislike Trump may not like the Democrats’ focus on impeachment and “resistance,” says John Fund.

YUGE: 5 Reasons Trump Will Win 40 States in 2020.

Here’s one:

He Will Garner Record African American Support.

Driven largely on great home-ownership numbers, George W. Bush garnered the modern era’s greatest numbers of African American voters. It was all of 11%.

The lock-hold that the American left has handcuffed the African American vote with is both cultural and economic. And while President Trump will — like all GOP Presidents in the era — not likely gain the majority of African American votes, even an increase of 15-20% of their overall votes would trigger a seismic landslide. Consider that Bush was able to improve the lives of many by increased home-ownership. Consider that President Obama oversaw a rapid decline in the lives of African Americans. Then consider that no group has benefitted more from Trump reforms, deregulation, and job creation initiatives than the nation’s African Americans. But also consider the cultural impact President Trump is making on the issue of prison reform, cracking down on dangerous gang activity (of which minorities are the overwhelming majority of victims,) and pardoning African Americans wrongfully imprisoned, and their is a cultural shift occurring that no one is yet reporting. That he is even reaching out to the very sports figures who have opposed him and embracing cultural figures and giving them audience to hear their hearts and minds in order to achieve justice on some social level—is a picture that African American communities are unaccustomed to seeing. President Obama’s went to black churches, put in affected speech patterns, and bemoaned conditions. By contrast President Trump invites them to the White House, listens to their legitimate complaints and plots solutions. I would not be surprised if he were to break 30% of African American support in 2020.

Don’t get cocky.