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DEMOCRATS ARE RIGHT TO WORRY ABOUT THE GEORGIA RUNOFFS, BUT DON’T GET COCKY.

PAUL BEDARD: Perdue and Loeffler edge into lead in Georgia, ‘should’ win both. Don’t get cocky.

Related, from Erick Erickson: Republicans in Georgia Are Turning Out.

I can’t speak for Georgia, but driving through Lower Alabama and the Florida Panhandle last week, the InstaWife and I saw Trump signs still defiantly flying a month after the election. We quit counting after a couple of hundred, but we only saw a single Biden/Harris sign. The refusal of the Deplorables to give in inspired my latest NY Post column.

DON’T GET COCKY: Emerson runoff polls: 51/48 in both Georgia races for…

BARACK TO THE FUTURE! Biden admin looks like one more try at liberal technocratic government.

Technocracy, climate cultism & dumb wars

Are you ready for the Great Reset? It’s the Great Leap Forward of 21st-century technocracy. It’s time, we are told by the likes of Davos guru Klaus Schwab, to reboot our passé, 18th-century ideas about rights, democracy and constitutions — and surrender to the smooth rule of the ­experts and the climate cultists, not forgetting, of course, their financial advisers.

The reality, however, is less Great Reset than Great Preset. What elites who talk this way really want is to turn the clock back to circa 2014, before Donald Trump’s ascent, before Brexit, before populists swept to power across the West on a wave of discontent with the liberal-technocratic order.

Look at who Joe Biden, the great hope of resetters, wants to drive the economic recovery. Janet Yellen, who was President Barack Obama’s choice at the Federal Reserve, for Treasury. Neera Tanden, the corporatist Clinton sidekick, for the Office of Management and Budget. Adewale Adeyemo, president of the Obama Foundation, as Yellen’s deputy.

It’s Obama Time all over again in defense and diplomacy too.

This is an ideology running on fumes, led by a sclerotic leader who has been a loyal Democrat foot-soldier for nearly half-century. However, as Dominic Green predicts, there is one happy ending: “In 2010, the voters responded to Obama’s first two years by flipping the House to the Republicans. They will do the same in 2022.”

Don’t get cocky, to coin an Instaphrase.

DON’T GET COCKY: Georgia runoff poll: Loeffler leads by one, Perdue leads by four.

Want to make a difference right now? Donate to David Perdue’s Georgia Senate Runoff Campaign.

Also Kelly Loeffler’s Georgia Senate Runoff Campaign.

You might also volunteer, if you can spare the time.

DON’T GET COCKY: The red wave is inbound.

YUGE: Trump Campaign’s Internal Numbers Explain Why Team Biden Is Freaking Out About Election Day.

“Election day is going to look like a Trump rally,” Nick Trainer, the campaign’s director of battleground strategy said on the press call.

“Democrat are really panicking because Joe Biden hasn’t run up a large enough lead” in absentee ballots and mail-in ballots in order to counter the expected Trump turnout on Election Day, Deputy Campaign Manager Justin Clark said. “They know that Trump’s margin on Election Day will make up the difference for victory.”

Therefore, Democrats are working to delegitimize the Election Day results as a “red mirage,” claiming that postal delays with mail-in ballots are giving a false impression of a Trump victory. “None of this will be true,” Clark argued.

Read the whole thing — and don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: If New Batch of Polls are Correct, Trump Will Soar Past 300 Electoral Votes.

DON’T GET COCKY: The Latest Poll Out of Iowa Foreshadows Disaster for Biden.

THE 41% SOLUTION: 41% Wrecks Dems’ Confidence, Biden Camp’s Narrative.

I’ve been covering American politics for a long time and I can’t remember a number that so dramatically altered the political community’s perception of a presidential campaign as that number did, last night, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

The source of the number was The Iowa Poll, which has been the gold standard for statewide polling in the United States for decades. The number itself was the percentage of likely voters in Iowa supporting Joe Biden’s candidacy for president.

President Trump’s number was 48%, which put him ahead in the “horse race” by 7 percentage points. There was nothing really remarkable about that, in context. Mr. Trump won the state in 2016 by (roughly) nine percentage points.

What was remarkable was Biden’s 41%. What made it doubly disconcerting was the way The Des Moines Register (accurately) described the poll results:

“Republican President Donald Trump has taken over the lead in Iowa as Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden has faded…”

Faded! Could there be a more terrible word in the last week of a presidential campaign?

More at the link, with the usual “don’t get cocky” disclaimer.

DON’T GET COCKY: Wow! Massive Crowd for Trump Rally In Pennsylvania Floors Even Democrats.

DON’T, AS THEY SAY, GET COCKY: Biden May Have the Polls But Events Are Trending Toward Trump.

HMM: Poll: Donald Trump set to win US presidency by electoral college landslide. “Donald Trump is on course to win four more years in the White House with a one point lead in the popular win, the final Democracy Institute poll for the Sunday Express has found. . . . Significantly, the President has, according to the latest findings, maintained a four point lead of 49 percent to 45 percent in the key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It means he is on course to easily win the electoral college by 326 to 212 votes against his Democrat rival in a result which would shock the world even more than his astonishing defeat of Hilary Clinton in 2016. The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll has throughout the campaign been one of the few to predict a Trump victory since March. This is because unlike other polls it only looks at people identifying as likely voters instead of just registered to vote and it has tried to identify the shy Trump vote.”

Nice poll kid. Don’t get cocky.

CHANGE:

Don’t get cocky.

IT’S AS RELIABLE AS THE POLLS: Forget the Polls: This Chinese Indicator Is Flashing ‘Trump.’ “The measure is unscientific at best. But merchants say sales of the president’s campaign merchandise at a major wholesale market are outstripping Biden’s.”

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Forget the polls, these Rust Belters offer real election insight.

Fran Coombs, managing editor of Rasmussen Reports, sees the numbers this year as very similar to the 2016 presidential election, when Hillary Clinton and Trump were neck-and-neck to the end.

In its daily national tracking poll Wednesday, Rasmussen had Trump ahead of Biden by one point for the second day running, after trailing by as much as 12.

The margin of error is 2.5 percentage points, but the trajectory is in the right direction.

Coombs says polls have picked up a “level of Trump hatred [that is] is mind-boggling” and accounts for a high “shy” Trump vote. Republicans are 10 to 15 points less likely than Democrats to divulge their voting intentions.

Democratic talk about “truth and reconciliation councils” and the like seems to be skewing the polls, which in turn skews Democrats’ ability to make sound campaigning decisions.

It’s almost as though they’re trying to lose.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump Is Doing Better In Michigan And Wisconsin Than Polls Suggest. “We just spent a week driving through Michigan and Wisconsin, talking with farmers, bartenders, politicians, priests, and ordinary voters, from suburban Detroit to western Wisconsin, and what we saw and heard left us with a very different impression: Trump’s support here is not reflected in the polls, and he might well win both states.”

AL PERROTTA: The Landslide America Will Be Glad to Have.

Oh, I could point to little signs. Like Trump building a lead in Florida. Or even The New York Times reporting that Trump is polling about 10 points better in Philadelphia than he did in 2016, which would all but guarantee him a win in Pennsylvania. Or his stunning rise among Blacks and Latinos.

I could point to more Trump supporters showing up at Biden rallies than Biden supporters, or wild Trump car rallies in places where having a GOP sticker on your car used to guarantee your car getting keyed. I could point to the enthusiasm gap, which is massive.

Or Kamala Harris blowing her big audition, voters understanding she is the real candidate in this election, and going, “No, thank you!” Or the common sense observation that few people will stand for line in hours just to vote against Trump.

I could point to the fact that Donald Trump is actually out there working to earn votes while Biden is, well, barely trying.

Or that Biden thinks he’s running for Senate and running against George Bush … or George Lopez … or George Jetson. George someone.

I could point to that, but no, I am talking about a sense. A feeling in my bones that a spirit of division and rancor is being broken. That something’s changed in recent weeks. Almost overnight.

Read the whole thing, which is about much more than just a single election.

Related: Chins Up, Buckaroos: Donald Trump Is Going to Win.

That one was originally just for our VIP members, but today I’ve unlocked it for everyone.

Still, don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY:

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Roger Kimball: Trump sealed the deal last night. He moved methodically, like a battle tank, over Biden’s incontinent expostulations. It’s not over until it’s over.

But there is this:

DON’T GET COCKY: Rasmussen Says Trump Just Hit the ‘Holy Grail’ of Reelection Numbers.

OKAY, THIS IS BIG, IF TRUE:

If the electorate is really R+1, it’s a Trump landslide. Here’s the Gallup report. At the very least, this suggests that the polls this year are in uncertain territory. But don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY. Gallows Polls: Democrats, Beware the Internals.

PREFERENCES, REVEALED AND CONCEALED: How Trump’s ‘enthusiasm factor’ could lead to another surprise win on Election Day.

Related, from a friend on Facebook who’s going door-to-door in Pennsylvania:

Latest news from the GOTV front: I personally still never hear anyone who switched to or from Trump bc of Covid or debates or media bombs. South Brooklyn (NY 11) or Bristol/Levittown.

My boss in Bristol says TONS of people switched – streaming into office to chg registration to GOP bc:
1) Philly riots that went right up to the county line but Bucks Co police stopped them from coming in. + lots have cops family members or friends. 2) COVID: many out of work for months, flatten the curve goalposts moving, fed up. 3) debates: Harris bitchface, Pence steady nice guy.

Historically as lower Bucks Cty goes, so goes PA.

PS DONT GET COCKY.

And I got this email from a friend about his lunch with three Hispanic co-workers:

They are all mid 20’s and working full time. They are all perfectly bi-lingual. Two were born in the USA and one in Mexico.

I asked them what they thought about Trump and Biden. This is what it all boiled down to:

‘Trump’s going to win. He says stupid shit but he actually does what he says he will do so they [other politicians] hate him.’

‘Biden’s going to lose. No one wants to elect a child molester.’ They all then went on about the videos of Biden sniffing children. They were viscerally disgusted. They also wondered why they heard so much about Hillary and absolutely nothing about Biden. They figured they [politicians again] were keeping Biden quiet because “he liked to creep on girls.” (Their words).

I was pretty shocked at the whole conversation, as I guess I just assumed they’d vote Biden. None of them are willing to take a phone or internet poll. They are afraid of Antifa finding out. They are all armed and have concealed carry permits. One bought his first gun and the other two bought more guns recently. They also talked of Antifa and a coming Civil War and are on the side of law and order. Even so, they think the police are definitely prejudiced against “brown people” and they really want serious police reform. I was really shocked by the whole conversation.

Is there a hidden Trump vote? Absolutely. How big is it? We’ll see. And don’t get cocky. Pedal to the metal all the way.

DON’T GET COCKY. Oh look: 56% of Americans expect Trump to win the election vs. 40% for Biden despite lame polls showing Biden ahead by a zillion points.

As Glenn wrote on Thursday, “Really, don’t get cocky. You should be donating and working on this election, and putting out the max effort, because everything is up for grabs. And encourage your friends to turn out and vote too.”

*REALLY* DON’T GET COCKY: Trump is losing. Badly. That’s what the recent polls shows. That doesn’t mean he will lose. There’s almost a month left, and if he can turn around 2.5% of current Biden voters, and thus get within around 4% of Biden, plus pick up a few “shy Trump” voters, he can win the electoral college while losing the popular vote by several points. But right now he’s losing, and it’s not because the polls are biased, not because of any conspiracy by the media to cover up his success. He’s basically getting the vote of every voter who approves of his job performance, and no one else. He’s more popular than he was in 2016, but Biden is much more popular than Clinton was. Worse yet, a lot of people think the race is much closer than it is right now, and are sending in early ballots voting for Democratic Senate candidates to “check” Trump. I’m telling it like it is, and I’m sorry that’s bad news for most Instapundit readers. And note that I am totally not averse to calling things for Trump against the media consensus when I see things going his way.

UPDATE (FROM GLENN): Really, don’t get cocky. You should be donating and working on this election, and putting out the max effort, because everything is up for grabs. And encourage your friends to turn out and vote too.

ANOTHER UPDATE (FROM GLENN): A Facebook friend sends this:

Someone asked me what feedback I am getting with door knocking in Bristol/Levittown PA. I’ve been doing this 3 days/wk, for 3 wkends. Working class to upper middle neighborhoods, all registered voters, all ages, roughly equal by party.

1) if it’s Biden they usually say Biden, occasionally apologetically.
2) if they say I’m undecided but don’t close the door, if you ask what are your issues or how will you decide, they say Trump or give you clues it’ll be Trump (ex: “I’m pro life.”)
3) I always ask if anything in the debates changed their mind – so far always no, they already were going to vote for that person.
4) So far no mind changes at all, or they didn’t say.
5) sometimes they refuse to say, period, and close the door.
6) if Trump – they are going to vote in person.
7) if anti Trump – why? 2-3/day – emotional negative reaction to him (“he’s disgusting”) or media memes (“wants to be a dictator”)
8) I always get maybe 1 in 25 who are vociferously Democrat or pro-Biden and let me have it.
9) but most aren’t home or don’t answer the door.

10) this weekend I want to ask if Trump’s covid diagnosis and choices around that changed their minds.

Interesting.

DON’T GET COCKY: Biden Lead Over Trump Cut To 3 Points After Presidential Debate: IBD/TIPP Poll.

SCHRODINGER’S CANDIDATE: The Strangest Campaign in History? Joe Biden may be running for president — and then again, maybe he’s not.

And yet if Biden were to explicitly and publicly advocate the Sanders, AOC, or Warren neo-socialist agenda, he would also lose, turning off his supposed swing-voter and independent suburban constituents.

So Biden in the vortex stays nearly mute — a quietude certainly well suited to his age, the prior news cycles of 2020, his cognitive limitations, and his hope that he can win with a rope-a-dope, run-out-the-clock strategy.

And now? The polls tighten. This strange year is gradually normalizing. Biden should be rested, after his months-long hiatus. And so will he in the eleventh hour actually conduct a campaign? Yes and no.

His strategists still seem to suffer from the Hillary disease. As in 2016, Trump is frenetic in the swing states, the Democratic candidate is virtually nonexistent.

As in 2016, Biden and the Democrats talk of a 70 to 90 percent likelihood of victory and an Electoral College blowout. They speculate about who will be the nation’s next cabinet officers, oblivious that such arrogance only feeds their blindness.

As in 2016, a few polls — Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Emerson, Zogby — show Trump nearly even or ahead in some states and are thus dismissed. Mainstream polls, as in 2016, likely “prove” their absence of bias by under-sampling working-class Democratic constituencies and over-sampling suburbanites, many of them Republicans — as if they cannot be accused of party asymmetries even as they do not reflect accurate ideological affinities.

And the polling outfits that in 2016 assured a Clinton victory are now once against cited for their reassurance that the Democrat remains clearly ahead.

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Day 10 of Trump 50% or higher approval, first since Inauguration, key to reelection.

Seriously, don’t get cocky. If you’re not working on this election, you should be.

IT’S 2004 ALL OVER AGAIN: It’s all about Ohio.

Ohio voters traditionally rewarded Republican and Democratic gubernatorial and US Senate candidates who appealed broadly across the state. A presidential candidate who could appeal beyond his party’s base also secured a majority of Ohioans. Trump is a great example of this reality.

Specifically, unlike most Republicans who ran in 2016, Trump took orthodox views on two key issues that broadened his appeal beyond the Republican base. First, he attacked free trade agreements beloved by the Republican establishment because he felt those agreements hurt blue-collar workers in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Next, he didn’t embrace right-to-work, which is viewed as anti-union by many blue-collar workers. Rank-and-file union workers in Ohio and the other blue-collar state voters felt increasingly uncomfortable with the growing progressive, anti-America sentiment in the Democratic party. They saw Trump as a Republican they finally could support.

The support from those unionized workers and their families helped Trump beat Hillary Clinton in Ohio by more than 8 percent. Trump also converted blue-collar voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, too, which enabled him to squeak out victories in the ‘blue wall’. Those states pushed him over the 270-Electoral Vote threshold he needed to win The White House.

There is little evidence those voters are going to abandon Trump in 2020.

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: WaPo/ABC polls: Trump edging Biden in Florida and Arizona now.

TRUMP: A UNITER, NOT A DIVIDER! Lisa Murkowski Reverses Position on Filling SCOTUS Vacancy, Won’t Rule Out Vote to Confirm.

Related: Joy Behar concedes Democrats’ SCOTUS loss: ‘We’ve lost that battle.’

It’s always good to hear the lamentations of the Behars, but don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump’s Path to Victory.

DON’T GET COCKY: “President Trump has now edged to a one-point lead over Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the latest Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. While statistically insignificant, it’s the first time Trump has been ahead.”

THE BIDEN RIOTS SHOULD HELP IN THIS EFFORT: Trump moves to expand electoral map by flipping Clinton-won states.

Still though, don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump campaign reaches 100M voters as team Biden avoids door knocks.

DON’T GET COCKY: Many Trump voters staying silent again, duping media and pollsters.

WEIRD HOW SENDING MIDDLE-CLASS WHITE KIDS IN TO BURN DOWN THEIR NEIGHBORHOODS HASN’T IMPRESSED BLACK VOTERS: Trump’s black voter boom ‘could potentially cost’ Biden the election.

Related: Biden’s Soft Hispanic Support. Well, to be fair, Democrats offer even less to Hispanics than they do to blacks.

But don’t get cocky. If you’re not donating and volunteering, you’re taking things too lightly.

DON’T GET COCKY: Is Joe Biden another Tom Dewey?

DON’T GET COCKY: Biden is struggling to win Miami Latinos, new poll finds. Will it cost him Florida?

PAUL BEDARD: White House Report Card: Polls, jobs look good for Trump. Nice polls kid. Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Biden-Harris Have a Big Problem in Pennsylvania.

Two months ago, Donald Trump’s numbers in Pennsylvania didn’t look good. Now, given this sudden grassroots groundswell, I’m convinced Biden is the one in trouble. That’s no B.S. And it’s Biden’s leftward lurch that has hurt him, especially with the highly ill-advised pick of Kamala Harris, who folk in this area see as a West Coast leftist whose “progressive” bona fides include an unwavering opposition to fracking.

Yes, fracking. Do not underestimate the significance of that issue to this region, and to the kind of guys posting the signs I’m describing. These guys are not white-collar businessmen. No, these are the blue collar, big labor, union hardhats that the Democratic Party once owned. They are totally for Trump.

Trump’s blue-collar appeal is, if anything, even greater than Reagan’s was.

CHANGE: Boom: 5M new gun owners, with 58% black and 40% women.

Also: Black voters pushing Trump to victory, with support for Biden 15 points down. Don’t get cocky, kids. But: “The polling analysis suggested that the rioting in cities and Trump’s law and order stance could be driving more black voters into his camp and robbing Biden of votes from the Democratic Party’s most loyal base.”

DON’T GET COCKY: “How bad do things look for Joe Biden’s campaign right now? Consider this: Democrats are worried about Minnesota, a state no Republican presidential candidate has carried since Richard Nixon’s 1972 landslide. Yet polls show President Trump gaining ground in Minnesota, and Democrats are worried because they haven’t seen any appearances by Biden or his running mate Kamala Harris. ‘Why aren’t they here?’ one Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party official told Minnesota Public Radio last week. ‘We need to hear from them. We need to see their presence on the ground.'”

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: C-SPAN Had So Many Democrats Calling In Support For Trump That They Had To Change Their Protocol.

Before the Republican National Convention, C-SPAN’s open phone lines were labeled as open for “Democrats,” “Republicans,” and “Other” viewers to call into and share their opinions on-air. After Trump’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention, however, C-SPAN received an influx of callers who identified as Democrat but said they would be voting for Trump in November.

Due to the increasing nature of these calls, the network adjusted the phone lines to encompass those who “Support Trump,” “Support Biden,” and “Support Others.”

Has this ever happened before? But really, don’t get cocky.

NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS: Trending: Trump’s odds of winning rise to 50-50, first time in 92 days.

But also, don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Some smart advice from a smart friend on Facebook:

The future of the country will be decided in the next 60 days.

According to Real Clear Politics aggregation of polls, if the election were held today Biden would win the presidency and Democrats would win control of the U.S. Senate, to go along with their majority in the House of Representatives.

Don’t get cocky and dismiss the polls – I don’t care what happened in 2016.

I am a Virginian and never in a million years would’ve imagined my state would be where it is today. Democrats control us here now and they’re pushing their radical policies through at warp speed.

Biden can win. We can also lose the senate. That means a very real possibility of a democrat WH, House, and Senate in a matter of months.

You help no one if you continue thinking “Trump will win in a landslide.” Your overconfidence is as dangerous to this nation’s future as the leftist chaos we are seeing is.

Work. Work like your family’s life depends on it for the next 10 weeks.

Yep. Because it does.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS — IT HASN’T EXACTLY BEEN A GOOD YEAR FOR THE MODELS: Model says Trump wins if Dow hits 28,053 — and it just passed that.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Trump is Gaining, Biden is Losing: To win, Joe Biden will have to beat Donald Trump and himself.

DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats peddling grievance on their way to losing the presidential election.

FLASHBACK: FOUR YEARS AGO: GOP insiders: Trump can’t win: ‘Trump is underperforming so comprehensively…it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America,’’ said an Iowa Republican.

Actually, all it took was for people to seriously contemplate the prospect of a Hillary presidency. But don’t get cocky. The experts were wrong last time, but if you care about this time you need to get out and work.

OUCH: Sanders’ former press secretary: Let’s face it, the Harris pick is a disaster for progressives. “Just what exactly do progressives — especially those with antipathy to law enforcement — get from a Joe Biden/Kamala Harris ticket? The media has spent much of the past thirty hours celebrating this union rather than analyzing it, but not everyone’s tossing confetti. . . . These are not new concerns; last year, back when the New York Times felt more comfortable in drilling into Harris’ record, it laid out the issues in more detail.”

The best thing about a contested primary is that it’s basically the only time the press will report anything negative about leading Democrats.

Related:

Flashback: While Democrats get crazier, Tulsi Gabbard hits Kamala Harris criticism right on the nose.

As Gabbard pointed out, then California attorney general, Harris was responsible for putting “over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana violations and then laughed about it when she was asked if she ever smoked marijuana.”

Harris’ office also blocked DNA evidence that could have freed a man who may be innocent. And what’s more, as Gabbard said, “She kept people in prison beyond their sentences to use them as cheap labor for the state of California. And she fought to keep (the) cash bail system in place that impacts poor people in the worst kind of way.”

Related: Kamala Harris: Introducing a faked confession isn’t outrageous prosecutorial misconduct.

UPDATE: A friend on Facebook comments: “As my conservative friends relish the ‘unwinnable Biden/Harris ticket,’ I’m reminded of when my liberal friends were celebrating the ‘unwinnable Trump/Pence ticket.’ The American voter can be (and usually is) a fairly contrary critter. Taking them for granted is a quick way to get a November wakeup call.”

Yep. And they’ll have that famous five-to-fifteen point media wind at their back. Don’t get cocky, kids. Get out and work for it if you want to win.

DON’T GET COCKY: Kamala Harris on the Ticket Is an In-Kind Donation to Trump-Pence 2020.

DON’T GET COCKY: Ground Game: Is Joe Biden’s Campaign Committing Political Suicide? “Joe Biden and the Democratic Party may have seriously hobbled their election prospects in November by refusing to send out staff and volunteers to campaign door-to-door, building the essential ‘ground game’ that helps win elections. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) claim to have volunteers and staff knocking on 1 million doors a week across America.”

DON’T GET COCKY: Have we passed peak Biden?

DON’T GET COCKY: If This Poll Is Accurate, Trump Will Be Reelected Easily.

Also from Matt Margolis: Ten More Lies About President Trump’s Response to the Coronavirus.

NICE POLL, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Poll: Trump Takes Lead over Biden. “A new poll released this weekend shows President Donald Trump, the incumbent GOP president, has taken a national and battleground states lead over his Democrat challenger presumptive nominee former Vice President Joe Biden. The survey, from the Democracy Institute commissioned by the Sunday Express newspaper, shows Trump leading Biden 48 percent to 46 percent. What’s more, Trump has opened up a bigger lead according to this poll in the crucial battleground states, meaning the president by this pollster’s estimates currently is projected to win 309 electoral votes—more than he did in 2016.”

May it be so. But if you care, get out there and donate, and volunteer. And if you don’t want to work in a campaign, consider an organization like True the Vote, which fights voting fraud.

DON SURBER: Even CNN sees Trump winning. Nice blog post, kid. Don’t get cocky. And if you care about this election, put your money and your time where they’ll do the most good.

THE CENTER HOLDS: Focus Groups Show Midwest Swing Voters Solidly Behind Trump. “Pollsters are consistently telling us Democratic nominee Joe Biden is far ahead. I’m not looking to pick a fight, as their sample sizes are much larger than mine. That said, as a focus group moderator, I’m hearing strong support for President Donald Trump from a critical sliver of the electorate.”

As always, don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Don Surber: Trump flipping Nevada and New Mexico. “Democrat riots help the president in New Mexico.”

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: “BLITZ: Trump Will Smash the Left and Win” by David Horowitz.

SIGNS AND PORTENTS: Here’s the third-highest ranked comment at the NYT:

I applaud this community for rejecting BLM demands. The article says “The proposal didn’t seem like too much of an ask…”. Well, it was!! I firmly believe the “silent majority” who are paying close attention but not voicing any opinion, will be heard on voting day. BLM has no right to “assume” they can put their message wherever they want. Believe it or not, other people have opinions that are “equal”. BLM doesn’t want equality, they want superiority and they use race and intimidation as a club to get it.

How many people feel this way now? How many will feel this way by November? The “activists” seem to be trying to make sure it’s as many as possible. 37 states? Some are working to make it 45. Then again, the last time the left went this crazy, we got 1972, with more than 45.

But don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: GOP voter registrations outpace Dems in swing states: report.

But, without getting cocky, ask yourself: If five years ago you’d been told that in 2020 the Democrats’ messaging would revolve around defunding the police and taking down statues of George Washington, how would you have expected the election to go?

Still, if you care, get to work: Donating, volunteering, helping out however you can. There’s always the margin of fraud to overcome, and it’ll be bigger this time than in 2016, when the Democrats were cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump’s chances in 2020.

DON’T GET COCKY: The Landslide of 2020?

DON’T GET COCKY: Biden Reelected Trump Last Friday — The former VP’s patronizing remark was no jest and it was fatal to his campaign.

Biden is opening up multiple fronts in the culture wars: Joe Biden’s campaign has set feminism back decades.

ROGER SIMON: Why Joe Biden and the Democrats Are Going to Lose Big.

Don’t get cocky, to coin an Instaphrase.

DON’T GET COCKY: Predicted Blue Wave Crashes In Wisconsin, California Special Elections.

NICE COLUMN, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Stacy McCain: Has Trump Already Won Reelection?

Ever since President Trump was elected, conservatives have nervously watched the poll numbers to see whether constant attacks from Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) were damaging the president’s popularity among his core constituency. Of course, Trump has sometimes suffered from self-inflicted damage — at times, he is his own worst enemy — but never in recent history has any president faced such unrelenting opposition from the moment of his election.

Trump’s shocking 2016 upset of Hillary Clinton, which contradicted nearly every expert forecast, triggered a series of events that included the “Russiagate” investigation, the Democrats’ takeover of the House in the 2018 midterm election, and Nancy Pelosi’s impeachment proceeding against the president that culminated in his acquittal in February. As soon as that crisis ended, Trump was immediately plunged into the COVID-19 emergency, in which his leadership was questioned and the strongest suit of his reelection platform, a robust economic performance, melted down in the span of a few days. Throughout his term, the major national news media have worked hand-in-glove with Democrats to treat Trump as an enemy to democracy itself, with journalists enlisted as part of the “resistance” to the president’s alleged authoritarianism.

Because all of this is so unprecedented, no one had any idea what the ultimate result might be, and many pundits who succumbed to poll-gazing obsession were inclined to believe two things: First, that Trump, who fell short of a popular-vote majority in 2016, faced an uphill challenge to win reelection in 2020; and second, that Joe Biden was the Democrat best qualified to beat Trump. Both these beliefs might yet prove true, but there is evidence that the poll-gazing pundits are as wrong now as they were four years ago. In fact, Trump’s reelection could already be a near certainty, and the establishment Democrats who lined up behind Biden’s candidacy may be leading their party to a landslide defeat in November.

There’s a good argument that Joe Biden is Bob Dole without the war heroism, the legislative achievements, the dry sense of humor, or the ability to speak in complete sentences. But everything is up in the air, and there’s a good chance that the Democrats will try to pull a Torricelli and replace Biden at the last minute.

DON’T GET COCKY: Forget Trump: Biden Is Less Popular Than Hillary Clinton Was at This Point in 2016.

DON’T GET COCKY: Joe Biden’s poll numbers — he’s in trouble with this key voting bloc.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Businesses adopted stricter health policies, even as dire predictions didn’t materialize.

CONRAD BLACK: Democrats Get Outmaneuvered By Trump’s Cunning.

But the president has flipped the table: he has met the public health challenge and is “flattening the curve.” And he has met the economic challenge with an imaginative economic package and now with a scientifically economic validated restart.

The Democrats — in a year when they can’t do anything right except sandbag Bernie Sanders, when they defended the infamous Chinese performance for a long time, and upheld the corrupt leadership of the World Health Organization — are still calling for Americans to hide like moles, whatever the financial hardship and the danger of starvation, severe economic loss, and public demoralization.

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: How the Obamas could easily win eight more years in the White House.

DON’T GET COCKY: James Carville predicts ‘Democratic wipeout’ in November after Trump’s coronavirus response.

And never trust Carville.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: U.S. urged to go slow on easing coronavirus lockdown, even as jobless claims surge.

CONRAD BLACK: Trump’s Leadership in Pandemic Paves Way to Reelection.

The president has done an excellent job of mobilizing the private sector, kicking around companies that he thought were being sluggish (General Motors) or were profiteering abroad at the expense of the safety of Americans (3M), and he invoked the National Emergencies Act and ignored silly tweets from the Democratic hecklers on the sidelines such as Hillary Clinton, and explained the law generally only needed to be referred to for targeted companies to comply; not to be specifically enforced. Again, he left his critics talking to themselves.

It is generally recognized that his experience as a businessman (the first serious businessman ever to hold that office) has been of great value in marshaling private sector collaboration—something that was especially helpful in getting Abbott Laboratories to move swiftly in developing a test that could be administered anywhere by almost anyone and produce results in 15 minutes.

This shut down the next wave of criticism that had become audible: that the president should carry the can for the backward testing facilities and antiquarian methods the country possessed.

Well into March, all tests had to be sent to Atlanta for evaluation and could only be made in hospitals by appointment. This was obviously completely unacceptable for a pandemic and Abbott Laboratories rendered a great service as well as producing a valuable product that the president could take some credit for and in any case enabled him to dodge this bullet.

Fauci and others have been at pains to emphasize that the president’s suspension of direct flights from China on January 31 and from Europe on March 11 has saved a large number of American lives, and a cautionary shot has been discharged across the bow of the Democrats with recollections of putative presidential candidate Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) calling the suspension of flights from China “hysterical and xenophobic,” and “racist.”

Trump has admirably mobilized the natural desire of Americans to rise to a national challenge, part of which is generally a rallying behind the leader, as long as the leader knows how to lead.

Don’t get cocky, kids. As much as you might wish otherwise, this thing is nowhere near over.

CHOOSE THE FORM OF YOUR DESTRUCTOR: Trump: Schiff’s New Partisan Investigation Amid a Pandemic Will Just ‘Build Up My Poll Numbers.’

Related: Former Obama staffer David Plouffe: Trump’s going to win in November, you know.

Don’t get cocky (especially now that we’re in seriously uncharted waters), to coin an Instaphrase.

I AGREE, BUT… Ex-Clinton adviser: Coronavirus pandemic ‘changes the presidential race overwhelmingly in Trump’s favor.’

“This crisis completely changes the presidential race overwhelmingly in Trump’s favor,” Dick Morris, who was Clinton’s political adviser and later campaign manager, told radio show host John Catsimatidis on Sunday.

“There is no more oxygen left in the room for Joe Biden. … He can’t say anything. He can’t campaign. He can’t attack Trump. He can’t talk about [the coronavirus]. There is nothing left for him to say,” he added. “Biden is kind of an afterthought. He’s almost in the history books.”

Biden, who is likely to win the Democratic presidential nomination, and his rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders have been sidelined from campaigning across the country because of the pandemic. Trump has also canceled campaign events, but the White House has held daily news briefings on the crisis.

Morris argued Hurricane Sandy had a similar effect on President Barack Obama’s reelection and other policy issues that could derail Trump’s chances of keeping the White House have been brushed under the rug as the coronavirus pandemic takes precedence.

“There are no other issues anymore in America. Nobody’s thinking about immigration, or income inequality, or climate change,” he said. “All Trump has to do now is be a good president. … Ride out this epidemic. Succeed in containing it, and he’s home free.”

…don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Three reasons Joe Biden will never be president.

BYRON YORK: Three reasons Joe Biden will never be president. “The third reason Biden will not be president is the 14 Year Rule. The idea of former George W. Bush speechwriter John McConnell, and popularized by writer Jonathan Rauch, it basically says that politicians have a strict sell-by date. “No one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency,” Rauch wrote. That has been true for a century.”

Two more reasons at the link, and as ever, don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Joe Biden is ‘completely unelectable,’ says ‘Bond King’ Jeffrey Gundlach.

KURT SCHLICHTER: The Democratic Disaster Just Got Even More Hilarious. “So, now the Democrats are choosing between a pair of doddering crustaceans. The Crusty Commie Curmudgeon and the Crusty Comedy Relief both did well enough Tuesday to keep going. Big Chief Warren, whose actual people call corn ‘corn’ and not ‘maize,’ may still go on because she’s an insufferable monster whose transcendent yearning to nag us into schoolmarm’d submission knows no bounds, plus because the establishment wants her in the race siphoning Chablis socialist votes away from her Marx brother.”

Don’t get cocky, kid. But yeah.

IF YOU LIVE IN THIS WORLD, YOU’RE FEELING THE CHANGE OF THE GUARD: Eight elected officials announce party switch, join Mississippi Republican Party.

Related: Poll: Democrats underperforming with black voters. But don’t get cocky. November is a long time away.

DON’T GET COCKY: A new swing state poll paints an ominous picture for Democrats.

In a Quinnipiac survey of registered voters released Thursday, Trump beats all of the major 2020 Democratic contenders in the key state of Wisconsin by between 7 and 11 percentage points, with frontrunner Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) seven points away from Trump in the state.

The major Democratic contenders fare better against Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan, where all of them are beating the president, although the margins in Michigan are generally more narrow. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) beats Trump by four points in Pennsylvania and five points in Michigan.

Wait until Trump starts hitting the nominee on their promise to ban fracking (they’ve all promised to ban fracking), which is the best thing to happen to Pennsylvania since the ’70s Steelers.

CHANGE: ‘National satisfaction’ reaches 15-year high, ‘greatly increases’ Trump reelection. Don’t get cocky, kids.

NICE POLL, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Trump takes 2020 lead, 52%-48%, all Democrats ‘probably lose.’

DON’T GET COCKY: Bloomberg, Democrats’ circular firing squad must have made Trump smile.

YEAH. WHATEVER. DON’T GET COCKY. BEATING THE DEMS ISN’T HARD. IT’S BEATING THE FRAUD…  The State of the Race: Democrats In Despair?

DON’T GET COCKY: Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected; Sanders Overtakes Biden Among Dem Voters. “Enthusiasm up from 2016, but with a partisan gap.”

Mind the gap:

Currently, 39% of American voters say they feel more enthusiastic than usual about the 2020 election, 21% say they are less enthusiastic, and 40% say they feel about the same level of enthusiasm as they have in past elections. In August 2016, 21% were more enthusiastic, 46% less enthusiastic, and 31% about the same. All partisan groups feel more enthusiastic than they did four years ago, including Republicans (47% more enthusiastic now versus 32% in 2016), Democrats (36% now versus 20% in 2016), and independents (34% now versus 15% in 2016).

“Enthusiasm is up compared to 2016, but optimism has split along party lines. These conflicting findings in public opinion seem to reflect the muddled state of the race on the Democratic side right now,” said Murray.

That last line was a bit of unnecessary (not to mention lame) spin. If Democratic voters can’t get enthused about the huge field of candidates they have to choose from, that says more about the quality of the field than it does about anything being “muddled.”

MARK LEVIN:

President Trump is politically stronger today than at anytime since entering politics. The Democrat Party-press and their Democrat comrades have failed miserably in their relentless and depraved coup efforts. No wonder they look manically depressed and sound insanely unhinged. They’re a force for darkness and despair, dystopia and chaos. Meanwhile, however, through it all, the president is racking up major accomplishment after major accomplishment, a steady stream of unprecedented successes. And due to his leadership, the nation is truly thriving. Americans are proud and overwhelmingly happy with their personal lives. Patriotism is back. Respect for America overseas is back. And I am sure if President Reagan were with us, he’d tip his hat to President Trump and with a smile tell him — terrific job my friend. Keep it up. It’s morning in America again.

Stay tuned. And don’t get cocky, kids.

JOHN HINDERAKER: Why Trump Will Be Re-Elected in One Data Point.

Gallup has some fascinating poll data on Americans’ views of their own financial well-being. The headline sums it up: “Record-High Optimism on Personal Finances in U.S.”

Gallup finds that 59% say they are better off than they were a year ago, as opposed to only 20% who say they are worse off. Those are great numbers–interestingly, we are so divided that political affiliation makes a big difference even on a simple question about one’s own finances–but that isn’t the data point I mean.

The most striking finding is this one: 74% say they expect to be better off a year from now than they are today, the highest such finding Gallup has ever recorded.

Don’t get cocky, kids.

DON’T GET COCKY: The impeachment ‘sea change’ shows Trump can beat anyone in 2020.

QUESTION ASKED AND ANSWERED:

Shot: The test: Can Democrats flip the most watched Republican district in Texas?

—The Houston Chronicle, yesterday.

Chaser: GOP poised to dash Democratic hopes of bellwether win in Fort Bend, TX.

Republican Gary Gates on Tuesday appeared headed to a smashing victory over Democrat Eliz Markowitz in a special runoff election for a vacant state House seat in the Houston suburbs, where Democrats hoped an upset win would kick-start efforts to wrangle control of the Texas House in 2020.

In the early vote, Gates, with 10,707 votes, was leading Markowitz, who had 7,461 votes, 59% to 41%.

If he prevails when all the votes are counted, Gates will serve the unexpired term of state Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond, who announced in mid-summer that he was stepping down from representing House District 28 in Fort Bend County. The race for a full term in the House will take place in November.

The contest in Fort Bend, where Beto O’Rourke lost in his 2018 bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz by 3.14 points, was the 16th best prospect on a list unveiled by Texas Democrats on Monday. The list contains 22 seats that Democrats are targeting in hopes of flipping the nine they need to gain control of the House and the speakership ahead of redistricting in the next session.

Markowitz’s defeat was also a setback for O’Rourke, whose surprisingly strong run against Cruz has become the yardstick of success for heightened Democratic ambitions in Texas in 2020, but whose deep personal involvement in recent weeks working on behalf of Markowitz and drawing volunteers from across the state and the nation to Fort Bend County may have proved a mixed blessing at best.

* * * * * * * *

Gates was always the favorite to win the runoff. But his consultant Craig Murphy said that O’Rourke’s presence, as well as campaign appearances on behalf of Markowitz by former presidential candidate Julián Castro and presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, and endorsements by two other candidates — former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren — nationalized the campaign in unproductive ways for Democrats.

—The Austin Statesman, this evening.

Still though, don’t get cocky, to coin an Insta-phrase.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Steven Hayward: The State of Things for Dems: Gloomy & Getting Gloomier.

SEEN ON FACEBOOK:

Don’t get cocky, kid. Ruth Ginsburg is the Keith Richards of the judiciary.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump is holding all the cards this November.

He has the ability to thoroughly dominate media coverage with one 280-character tweet.

No matter what reporters want to report on, from impeachment to the Emoluments Clause, Trump can change the subject to what he wants to talk about.

He ups the ante with each tweet, making grandiose and often ridiculous statements.

The whole controversy over the supposed targeting of Iranian cultural sites is a case in point.

Nobody seriously thinks that the American people (or the military) would allow the president to target historically or religiously significant sites to punish the Iranians.

And yet the president mentions it, and the media goes nuts.

Trump baited the press all the way to the White House, yet they still fall for it every single time.

Not very bright, are they?