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DON’T GET COCKY: Ground Game: Is Joe Biden’s Campaign Committing Political Suicide? “Joe Biden and the Democratic Party may have seriously hobbled their election prospects in November by refusing to send out staff and volunteers to campaign door-to-door, building the essential ‘ground game’ that helps win elections. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) claim to have volunteers and staff knocking on 1 million doors a week across America.”

DON’T GET COCKY: Have we passed peak Biden?

DON’T GET COCKY: If This Poll Is Accurate, Trump Will Be Reelected Easily.

Also from Matt Margolis: Ten More Lies About President Trump’s Response to the Coronavirus.

NICE POLL, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Poll: Trump Takes Lead over Biden. “A new poll released this weekend shows President Donald Trump, the incumbent GOP president, has taken a national and battleground states lead over his Democrat challenger presumptive nominee former Vice President Joe Biden. The survey, from the Democracy Institute commissioned by the Sunday Express newspaper, shows Trump leading Biden 48 percent to 46 percent. What’s more, Trump has opened up a bigger lead according to this poll in the crucial battleground states, meaning the president by this pollster’s estimates currently is projected to win 309 electoral votes—more than he did in 2016.”

May it be so. But if you care, get out there and donate, and volunteer. And if you don’t want to work in a campaign, consider an organization like True the Vote, which fights voting fraud.

DON SURBER: Even CNN sees Trump winning. Nice blog post, kid. Don’t get cocky. And if you care about this election, put your money and your time where they’ll do the most good.

THE CENTER HOLDS: Focus Groups Show Midwest Swing Voters Solidly Behind Trump. “Pollsters are consistently telling us Democratic nominee Joe Biden is far ahead. I’m not looking to pick a fight, as their sample sizes are much larger than mine. That said, as a focus group moderator, I’m hearing strong support for President Donald Trump from a critical sliver of the electorate.”

As always, don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Don Surber: Trump flipping Nevada and New Mexico. “Democrat riots help the president in New Mexico.”

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: “BLITZ: Trump Will Smash the Left and Win” by David Horowitz.

SIGNS AND PORTENTS: Here’s the third-highest ranked comment at the NYT:

I applaud this community for rejecting BLM demands. The article says “The proposal didn’t seem like too much of an ask…”. Well, it was!! I firmly believe the “silent majority” who are paying close attention but not voicing any opinion, will be heard on voting day. BLM has no right to “assume” they can put their message wherever they want. Believe it or not, other people have opinions that are “equal”. BLM doesn’t want equality, they want superiority and they use race and intimidation as a club to get it.

How many people feel this way now? How many will feel this way by November? The “activists” seem to be trying to make sure it’s as many as possible. 37 states? Some are working to make it 45. Then again, the last time the left went this crazy, we got 1972, with more than 45.

But don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: GOP voter registrations outpace Dems in swing states: report.

But, without getting cocky, ask yourself: If five years ago you’d been told that in 2020 the Democrats’ messaging would revolve around defunding the police and taking down statues of George Washington, how would you have expected the election to go?

Still, if you care, get to work: Donating, volunteering, helping out however you can. There’s always the margin of fraud to overcome, and it’ll be bigger this time than in 2016, when the Democrats were cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Professor doubles down on prediction model of Trump’s chances in 2020.

DON’T GET COCKY: The Landslide of 2020?

DON’T GET COCKY: Biden Reelected Trump Last Friday — The former VP’s patronizing remark was no jest and it was fatal to his campaign.

Biden is opening up multiple fronts in the culture wars: Joe Biden’s campaign has set feminism back decades.

ROGER SIMON: Why Joe Biden and the Democrats Are Going to Lose Big.

Don’t get cocky, to coin an Instaphrase.

DON’T GET COCKY: Predicted Blue Wave Crashes In Wisconsin, California Special Elections.

NICE COLUMN, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Stacy McCain: Has Trump Already Won Reelection?

Ever since President Trump was elected, conservatives have nervously watched the poll numbers to see whether constant attacks from Democrats and the media (but I repeat myself) were damaging the president’s popularity among his core constituency. Of course, Trump has sometimes suffered from self-inflicted damage — at times, he is his own worst enemy — but never in recent history has any president faced such unrelenting opposition from the moment of his election.

Trump’s shocking 2016 upset of Hillary Clinton, which contradicted nearly every expert forecast, triggered a series of events that included the “Russiagate” investigation, the Democrats’ takeover of the House in the 2018 midterm election, and Nancy Pelosi’s impeachment proceeding against the president that culminated in his acquittal in February. As soon as that crisis ended, Trump was immediately plunged into the COVID-19 emergency, in which his leadership was questioned and the strongest suit of his reelection platform, a robust economic performance, melted down in the span of a few days. Throughout his term, the major national news media have worked hand-in-glove with Democrats to treat Trump as an enemy to democracy itself, with journalists enlisted as part of the “resistance” to the president’s alleged authoritarianism.

Because all of this is so unprecedented, no one had any idea what the ultimate result might be, and many pundits who succumbed to poll-gazing obsession were inclined to believe two things: First, that Trump, who fell short of a popular-vote majority in 2016, faced an uphill challenge to win reelection in 2020; and second, that Joe Biden was the Democrat best qualified to beat Trump. Both these beliefs might yet prove true, but there is evidence that the poll-gazing pundits are as wrong now as they were four years ago. In fact, Trump’s reelection could already be a near certainty, and the establishment Democrats who lined up behind Biden’s candidacy may be leading their party to a landslide defeat in November.

There’s a good argument that Joe Biden is Bob Dole without the war heroism, the legislative achievements, the dry sense of humor, or the ability to speak in complete sentences. But everything is up in the air, and there’s a good chance that the Democrats will try to pull a Torricelli and replace Biden at the last minute.

DON’T GET COCKY: Forget Trump: Biden Is Less Popular Than Hillary Clinton Was at This Point in 2016.

DON’T GET COCKY: Joe Biden’s poll numbers — he’s in trouble with this key voting bloc.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Businesses adopted stricter health policies, even as dire predictions didn’t materialize.

CONRAD BLACK: Democrats Get Outmaneuvered By Trump’s Cunning.

But the president has flipped the table: he has met the public health challenge and is “flattening the curve.” And he has met the economic challenge with an imaginative economic package and now with a scientifically economic validated restart.

The Democrats — in a year when they can’t do anything right except sandbag Bernie Sanders, when they defended the infamous Chinese performance for a long time, and upheld the corrupt leadership of the World Health Organization — are still calling for Americans to hide like moles, whatever the financial hardship and the danger of starvation, severe economic loss, and public demoralization.

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: How the Obamas could easily win eight more years in the White House.

DON’T GET COCKY: James Carville predicts ‘Democratic wipeout’ in November after Trump’s coronavirus response.

And never trust Carville.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: U.S. urged to go slow on easing coronavirus lockdown, even as jobless claims surge.

CONRAD BLACK: Trump’s Leadership in Pandemic Paves Way to Reelection.

The president has done an excellent job of mobilizing the private sector, kicking around companies that he thought were being sluggish (General Motors) or were profiteering abroad at the expense of the safety of Americans (3M), and he invoked the National Emergencies Act and ignored silly tweets from the Democratic hecklers on the sidelines such as Hillary Clinton, and explained the law generally only needed to be referred to for targeted companies to comply; not to be specifically enforced. Again, he left his critics talking to themselves.

It is generally recognized that his experience as a businessman (the first serious businessman ever to hold that office) has been of great value in marshaling private sector collaboration—something that was especially helpful in getting Abbott Laboratories to move swiftly in developing a test that could be administered anywhere by almost anyone and produce results in 15 minutes.

This shut down the next wave of criticism that had become audible: that the president should carry the can for the backward testing facilities and antiquarian methods the country possessed.

Well into March, all tests had to be sent to Atlanta for evaluation and could only be made in hospitals by appointment. This was obviously completely unacceptable for a pandemic and Abbott Laboratories rendered a great service as well as producing a valuable product that the president could take some credit for and in any case enabled him to dodge this bullet.

Fauci and others have been at pains to emphasize that the president’s suspension of direct flights from China on January 31 and from Europe on March 11 has saved a large number of American lives, and a cautionary shot has been discharged across the bow of the Democrats with recollections of putative presidential candidate Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) calling the suspension of flights from China “hysterical and xenophobic,” and “racist.”

Trump has admirably mobilized the natural desire of Americans to rise to a national challenge, part of which is generally a rallying behind the leader, as long as the leader knows how to lead.

Don’t get cocky, kids. As much as you might wish otherwise, this thing is nowhere near over.

CHOOSE THE FORM OF YOUR DESTRUCTOR: Trump: Schiff’s New Partisan Investigation Amid a Pandemic Will Just ‘Build Up My Poll Numbers.’

Related: Former Obama staffer David Plouffe: Trump’s going to win in November, you know.

Don’t get cocky (especially now that we’re in seriously uncharted waters), to coin an Instaphrase.

I AGREE, BUT… Ex-Clinton adviser: Coronavirus pandemic ‘changes the presidential race overwhelmingly in Trump’s favor.’

“This crisis completely changes the presidential race overwhelmingly in Trump’s favor,” Dick Morris, who was Clinton’s political adviser and later campaign manager, told radio show host John Catsimatidis on Sunday.

“There is no more oxygen left in the room for Joe Biden. … He can’t say anything. He can’t campaign. He can’t attack Trump. He can’t talk about [the coronavirus]. There is nothing left for him to say,” he added. “Biden is kind of an afterthought. He’s almost in the history books.”

Biden, who is likely to win the Democratic presidential nomination, and his rival Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders have been sidelined from campaigning across the country because of the pandemic. Trump has also canceled campaign events, but the White House has held daily news briefings on the crisis.

Morris argued Hurricane Sandy had a similar effect on President Barack Obama’s reelection and other policy issues that could derail Trump’s chances of keeping the White House have been brushed under the rug as the coronavirus pandemic takes precedence.

“There are no other issues anymore in America. Nobody’s thinking about immigration, or income inequality, or climate change,” he said. “All Trump has to do now is be a good president. … Ride out this epidemic. Succeed in containing it, and he’s home free.”

…don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Three reasons Joe Biden will never be president.

BYRON YORK: Three reasons Joe Biden will never be president. “The third reason Biden will not be president is the 14 Year Rule. The idea of former George W. Bush speechwriter John McConnell, and popularized by writer Jonathan Rauch, it basically says that politicians have a strict sell-by date. “No one gets elected president who needs longer than 14 years to get from his or her first gubernatorial or Senate victory to either the presidency or the vice presidency,” Rauch wrote. That has been true for a century.”

Two more reasons at the link, and as ever, don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Joe Biden is ‘completely unelectable,’ says ‘Bond King’ Jeffrey Gundlach.

KURT SCHLICHTER: The Democratic Disaster Just Got Even More Hilarious. “So, now the Democrats are choosing between a pair of doddering crustaceans. The Crusty Commie Curmudgeon and the Crusty Comedy Relief both did well enough Tuesday to keep going. Big Chief Warren, whose actual people call corn ‘corn’ and not ‘maize,’ may still go on because she’s an insufferable monster whose transcendent yearning to nag us into schoolmarm’d submission knows no bounds, plus because the establishment wants her in the race siphoning Chablis socialist votes away from her Marx brother.”

Don’t get cocky, kid. But yeah.

IF YOU LIVE IN THIS WORLD, YOU’RE FEELING THE CHANGE OF THE GUARD: Eight elected officials announce party switch, join Mississippi Republican Party.

Related: Poll: Democrats underperforming with black voters. But don’t get cocky. November is a long time away.

DON’T GET COCKY: A new swing state poll paints an ominous picture for Democrats.

In a Quinnipiac survey of registered voters released Thursday, Trump beats all of the major 2020 Democratic contenders in the key state of Wisconsin by between 7 and 11 percentage points, with frontrunner Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) seven points away from Trump in the state.

The major Democratic contenders fare better against Trump in Pennsylvania and Michigan, where all of them are beating the president, although the margins in Michigan are generally more narrow. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) beats Trump by four points in Pennsylvania and five points in Michigan.

Wait until Trump starts hitting the nominee on their promise to ban fracking (they’ve all promised to ban fracking), which is the best thing to happen to Pennsylvania since the ’70s Steelers.

CHANGE: ‘National satisfaction’ reaches 15-year high, ‘greatly increases’ Trump reelection. Don’t get cocky, kids.

NICE POLL, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Trump takes 2020 lead, 52%-48%, all Democrats ‘probably lose.’

DON’T GET COCKY: Bloomberg, Democrats’ circular firing squad must have made Trump smile.

YEAH. WHATEVER. DON’T GET COCKY. BEATING THE DEMS ISN’T HARD. IT’S BEATING THE FRAUD…  The State of the Race: Democrats In Despair?

DON’T GET COCKY: Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected; Sanders Overtakes Biden Among Dem Voters. “Enthusiasm up from 2016, but with a partisan gap.”

Mind the gap:

Currently, 39% of American voters say they feel more enthusiastic than usual about the 2020 election, 21% say they are less enthusiastic, and 40% say they feel about the same level of enthusiasm as they have in past elections. In August 2016, 21% were more enthusiastic, 46% less enthusiastic, and 31% about the same. All partisan groups feel more enthusiastic than they did four years ago, including Republicans (47% more enthusiastic now versus 32% in 2016), Democrats (36% now versus 20% in 2016), and independents (34% now versus 15% in 2016).

“Enthusiasm is up compared to 2016, but optimism has split along party lines. These conflicting findings in public opinion seem to reflect the muddled state of the race on the Democratic side right now,” said Murray.

That last line was a bit of unnecessary (not to mention lame) spin. If Democratic voters can’t get enthused about the huge field of candidates they have to choose from, that says more about the quality of the field than it does about anything being “muddled.”

MARK LEVIN:

President Trump is politically stronger today than at anytime since entering politics. The Democrat Party-press and their Democrat comrades have failed miserably in their relentless and depraved coup efforts. No wonder they look manically depressed and sound insanely unhinged. They’re a force for darkness and despair, dystopia and chaos. Meanwhile, however, through it all, the president is racking up major accomplishment after major accomplishment, a steady stream of unprecedented successes. And due to his leadership, the nation is truly thriving. Americans are proud and overwhelmingly happy with their personal lives. Patriotism is back. Respect for America overseas is back. And I am sure if President Reagan were with us, he’d tip his hat to President Trump and with a smile tell him — terrific job my friend. Keep it up. It’s morning in America again.

Stay tuned. And don’t get cocky, kids.

JOHN HINDERAKER: Why Trump Will Be Re-Elected in One Data Point.

Gallup has some fascinating poll data on Americans’ views of their own financial well-being. The headline sums it up: “Record-High Optimism on Personal Finances in U.S.”

Gallup finds that 59% say they are better off than they were a year ago, as opposed to only 20% who say they are worse off. Those are great numbers–interestingly, we are so divided that political affiliation makes a big difference even on a simple question about one’s own finances–but that isn’t the data point I mean.

The most striking finding is this one: 74% say they expect to be better off a year from now than they are today, the highest such finding Gallup has ever recorded.

Don’t get cocky, kids.

DON’T GET COCKY: The impeachment ‘sea change’ shows Trump can beat anyone in 2020.

QUESTION ASKED AND ANSWERED:

Shot: The test: Can Democrats flip the most watched Republican district in Texas?

—The Houston Chronicle, yesterday.

Chaser: GOP poised to dash Democratic hopes of bellwether win in Fort Bend, TX.

Republican Gary Gates on Tuesday appeared headed to a smashing victory over Democrat Eliz Markowitz in a special runoff election for a vacant state House seat in the Houston suburbs, where Democrats hoped an upset win would kick-start efforts to wrangle control of the Texas House in 2020.

In the early vote, Gates, with 10,707 votes, was leading Markowitz, who had 7,461 votes, 59% to 41%.

If he prevails when all the votes are counted, Gates will serve the unexpired term of state Rep. John Zerwas, R-Richmond, who announced in mid-summer that he was stepping down from representing House District 28 in Fort Bend County. The race for a full term in the House will take place in November.

The contest in Fort Bend, where Beto O’Rourke lost in his 2018 bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz by 3.14 points, was the 16th best prospect on a list unveiled by Texas Democrats on Monday. The list contains 22 seats that Democrats are targeting in hopes of flipping the nine they need to gain control of the House and the speakership ahead of redistricting in the next session.

Markowitz’s defeat was also a setback for O’Rourke, whose surprisingly strong run against Cruz has become the yardstick of success for heightened Democratic ambitions in Texas in 2020, but whose deep personal involvement in recent weeks working on behalf of Markowitz and drawing volunteers from across the state and the nation to Fort Bend County may have proved a mixed blessing at best.

* * * * * * * *

Gates was always the favorite to win the runoff. But his consultant Craig Murphy said that O’Rourke’s presence, as well as campaign appearances on behalf of Markowitz by former presidential candidate Julián Castro and presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg, and endorsements by two other candidates — former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren — nationalized the campaign in unproductive ways for Democrats.

—The Austin Statesman, this evening.

Still though, don’t get cocky, to coin an Insta-phrase.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Steven Hayward: The State of Things for Dems: Gloomy & Getting Gloomier.

SEEN ON FACEBOOK:

Don’t get cocky, kid. Ruth Ginsburg is the Keith Richards of the judiciary.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump is holding all the cards this November.

He has the ability to thoroughly dominate media coverage with one 280-character tweet.

No matter what reporters want to report on, from impeachment to the Emoluments Clause, Trump can change the subject to what he wants to talk about.

He ups the ante with each tweet, making grandiose and often ridiculous statements.

The whole controversy over the supposed targeting of Iranian cultural sites is a case in point.

Nobody seriously thinks that the American people (or the military) would allow the president to target historically or religiously significant sites to punish the Iranians.

And yet the president mentions it, and the media goes nuts.

Trump baited the press all the way to the White House, yet they still fall for it every single time.

Not very bright, are they?

VDH: WHY TRUMP WILL WIN AGAIN IN 2020. There is a growing wrath in the country, either ignored, suppressed or undetected by the partisan media.

It is easy to say that 2020 seems to be replaying 2016, complete with the identical insularity of progressives, as if what should never have happened then certainly cannot now. But this time around there is an even greater sense of anger and need for retribution especially among the most unlikely Trump supporters. It reflects a fed-up payback for three years of nonstop efforts to overthrow an elected president, anger at anti-Trump hysteria and weariness at being lectured. A year is a proverbial long time. The economy could tank. The president might find himself trading missiles with Iran. At 73, a sleep-deprived, hamburger-munching Trump might discover his legendary stamina finally giving out. Still, there is a growing wrath in the country, either ignored, suppressed or undetected by the partisan media. It is a desire for a reckoning with ‘them’. For lots of quiet, ordinary people, 2020 is shaping up as the get-even election — in ways that transcend even Trump himself.

Don’t get cocky, but millions of Americans are well-aware, that as Trump himself tweeted last month:

DON’T GET COCKY:  Why Trump Will Cruise to Victory Next Year.

DON’T GET COCKY: How Democrats lost the Impeachment War — and probably 2020.

And a related item from Bill Whittle: Impeach Trump: The Democrat Party’s 2020 Election Concession Speech.

DON’T GET COCKY: Heartland Poll Shows Voters Decisively Reject Socialism and Socialist Candidates.

DON’T GET COCKY: Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon Predicts Trump ‘Will Be Re-elected in 2020.’

DON’T GET COCKY: The latest battleground poll tells us Democrats are over-correcting for 2020 — and they can’t beat Trump that way.

The three key states, based on the 2016 results, are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Trump became the first Republican since 1984 to win Wisconsin and the first since 1988 to win Pennsylvania and Michigan. The narrow margin of around 70,000 votes in all three states was enough to win the electoral college and sweep Trump into office.

Democrats must win those states to defeat Trump, who doesn’t care if he doesn’t win the popular vote. The problem, however, is voters in those states may not want to go all in with Sanders’ or Warren’s big spending plans, which include Medicare-for-All.

On Medicare-for-All, it is not difficult to see the message from the GOP and Trump as the campaign moves into 2020. While PA, MI, and WI are no longer the manufacturing powerhouses they were 40 or 50 years ago, they still employ a decent number of union workers who have great healthcare benefits through their employers. How will they react to getting presented with a proposal that will take away their private plan and put in the hands of the federal government?

For many people, even those inclined to vote for Democrats, words that still make them cringe are, “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help.”

Whether people want to credit Trump or not, the reality in politics is that the person in the Oval Office gets the credit or blame for the economy. With the unemployment rate at 3.6 per cent, low interest rates, no inflation, and a stock market that is humming along, Democrats have to convince voters Trump doesn’t deserve another term as re-election races are almost always a referendum on the incumbent.

Another Trump advantage: He always looks like he’s having fun on the campaign trail. Every single one of the Democratic contenders is a real eat-your-peas type.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Prediction Market Favoring Trump Over Democrats. If you want to make a difference, forget the prediction markets and go volunteer at a campaign.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Voter Enthusiasm for 2020 Is Off the Charts — Especially for Trump Fans.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Marcellus Fracking Means Farewell to Dems in 2020.

Fracking does not cause earthquakes. Nor does it taint well water. The mixture used to fracture shale is in fact a benign blend of 90% water, 9.5% sand, and 0.5% chemicals such as the sodium chloride of table salt and the citric acid of the orange juice you had for breakfast.

Shale formations in which fracking is employed are thousands of feet deep. Drinking water aquifers are generally only 100 feet deep. There is a lot of solid rock between them.

It is fracking that has produced a boom in the production of natural gas, a fossil fuel that has produced a significant reduction in the U.S. of so-called “greenhouse gases.” . . .

The Democrats have no case, moral or otherwise, for banning fracking, which would ironically hurt the environment they allegedly want to heal while creating an economic collapse. If they insist on advocating, they will be caught between shale rock and a hard place.

Read the whole thing.

DON’T GET COCKY: Elizabeth Warren the front-runner? That’s great news for Republicans.

DON’T GET COCKY: Moody Election Model Has Some Very Bad News for 2020 Democrats.

TRADE WARS ARE FUN AND EASY TO WIN: Cramer on Trump vs. China: ‘Hate him or like him, he has them where he wants them.’

UPDATE: From the comments: “The Chinese must have decided Trump is going to be re-elected.” Don’t get cocky. Until election day, they assumed Hillary would win. But yes, I think that’s one of the things this means.

TWO TAKES ON THE SYRIA DECISION THAT DISAGREE WITH THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM: (1) Security Studies Group: The Syria Decision.

As we warned at the time, the American position was much more exposed and much less tenable than was commonly understood. . . .

Just as allowing Iran to run wild hurts China much more than it hurts the United States, China is harmed by our allowing the Turks to provoke an insurgency that will bedevil the stability of the very region where China intends its massive investments. The wars that China’s own allies are starting are going to be the biggest tax on China’s growing power and influence, which means it will become China’s problem — and not America’s — to stop those wars. That means that China and Turkey, and not America, will end up paying the cost of Middle Eastern security. The danger they face is that they will overextend themselves, and provoke fights they cannot walk away from in the process. It may be a bigger burden than Erdogan or Xi imagine that they are taking on here.

It is unlikely that President Trump thinks so strategically or so ruthlessly. More likely he is simply convinced that these wars drain American blood and treasure in an unacceptable way, and he just intends to stop doing it whatever it costs.

(2) Trump’s Syria withdrawal bravely puts America First, the establishment last. “His decision will stop risking American lives and wasting taxpayer dollars on policing Middle East politics. This is long overdue, seeing as our security goals in Syria have already been accomplished. To recap, the U.S. military first intervened in the Syrian conflict in 2014. Our goal was to destroy the Islamic State Caliphate, as the terrorist group had built up territorial control of much of the conflict-ridden region. Mission accomplished.”

Well, I’m fine on reducing our commitments to the region. Trump’s diplomatic approach has the Arab world allied with Israel, and Saudi Arabia liberalizing internally. And thanks to fracking, the mideast isn’t that important to us anymore. On the other hand, the Kurds are good people, and I don’t like leaving them hanging, which is what this looks like to me. On that point, I’m in general agreement with Tom Rogan: “We relied upon the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and other Kurdish militias in order to substantially degrade ISIS. Yes, Western special operations played a crucial role in this effort. But the Kurds took the brunt of the casualties. And the Kurds kept fighting alongside us even after their northern heartlands had been retaken. Their tenacious courage saved American lives by denying ISIS the space and time to plot attacks against Western homelands.”

UPDATE: Two more: Walter Russell Mead: Trump’s Jacksonian Syria Withdrawal.

Explaining his decision to pull U.S. troops away from the Turkish-Syrian border at the cost of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, and open the way for Turkish forces to create what Ankara calls a “safety zone,” President Trump tweeted early Monday that “it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home.” . . .

Mr. Trump isn’t the first U.S. president to try to hold America back from a Middle East conflict. President Obama made a similar, and similarly hasty, decision in 2013 when he chose not to respond to Syria’s violation of his chemical weapons “red line” with a military strike. Many of the same people criticizing Mr. Trump today criticized Mr. Obama then, and the subsequent course of the Syrian war underlined both the humanitarian and the strategic case against Mr. Obama’s decision. Mr. Trump’s Syria decision may also prove to be a mistake, but it should give the establishment pause that two presidents as different as Messrs. Obama and Trump reached similar conclusions about the political risks in the Middle East.

The U.S. may be the most powerful actor in the region, but it can’t resolve the economic and social conflicts that destabilize the Middle East. As long as this is the case, those who want presidents to commit to long-term military engagements, however limited and however advantageous, must expect a skeptical hearing in the Oval Office.

Plus: Syria Could Be Turkey’s Vietnam. “Erdoğan may talk about a terror threat emanating from northern Syria, but he has yet to prove that one exists. Quite the contrary: Not only were Syrian Kurds the most effective indigenous fighting force against the Islamic State, there is also overwhelming evidence that Turkey cooperated, profited from, and at times coordinated with Syria’s Al Qaeda affiliates and the Islamic State. . . . Erdoğan may be cocky, but he could be falling into a trap. Turkey’s drones may give it a qualitative military edge in mountains and rural regions but may be of substantially less utility in the northern Syrian cities if limiting collateral damage is any concerns. The Kurds have extensive experience fighting on the ground. Meanwhile, recent political purges of the Turkish military make the Turkish Army a shell of its former self. With Kurdish insurgents voluntarily going into Syria at Turkey’s request as part of the previous peace agreement, Syrian Kurds simply have no place to go. A century ago, Turkish forces slaughtered the Armenians by marching them into the desert to their deaths; the Kurds refuse to be the sequel. Turkish invasion and ethnic cleansing—Turkey’s stated purpose is to settle a couple million Arabs in the region—will spark insurgency in northeastern Syria and across Turkey.”

Things have changed in the mideast, but when your decisions about Syria are compared to Obama’s, it’s not a good sign.

Plus, it’s a NATO thing.

I am speaking, of course, of president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is, increasingly, Turkey’s effective dictator. But it’s crucial to emphasize that these are Nato forces. This not only means they are supplied with state-of-the-art weaponry; it also means those weapons are being maintained by other Nato members.

Fighter jets, helicopter gunships, even Turkey’s German-supplied Panzer forces – they all degrade extremely quickly under combat conditions. The people who continually inspect, maintain, repair, replace, and provide them with spare parts tend to be contractors working for American, British, German or Italian firms. Their presence is critical because the Turkish military advantage over Northern Syria’s “People’s Defense Forces” (YPG) and “Women’s Defense Forces” (YPJ), those defenders of Kobane that Turkey has pledged to destroy, is entirely dependent on them.

That’s because, aside from its technological advantage, the Turkish army is a mess. Most of its best officers and even pilots have been in prison since the failed coup attempt in 2016, and it’s now being run by commanders chosen by political loyalty instead of competence. Rojava’s defenders, in contrast, are seasoned veterans.

Plus:

DON’T GET COCKY: Happy retirement, Speaker Pelosi.

DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats toss Biden aside in zeal to impeach — ensuring Trump’s reelection.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: Conrad Black: Why Donald Trump will win big in 2020.

MICHAEL GOODWIN: Pelosi’s impeachment flip-flop changes everything.

In surrendering to the radicals and the noisy drumbeat of their media handmaidens, Pelosi established a formal investigative process involving the top legislative committees.

Yet she did something else, too, something far more monumental: She effectively committed House Dems to impeaching President Trump.

Because of what she said and did, if the House doesn’t go all the way, it will be a political disaster. Either failing to take a vote on articles of impeachment, or failing to get enough votes among her majority to pass any articles, would be seen as a political exoneration for Trump, likely leading to his re-election.

Don’t get cocky.

That aside, maybe the only thing to the Democrats’ kamikaze wing worse than not going ahead with an impeachment inquiry would be an unsuccessful one.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: 2020 Vision Wednesday: Trump raised $15 million in California in one day. That should worry Democrats.

NICE SPECIAL ELECTION, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Roll Call: Why the GOP victory in North Carolina spells disaster for Democrats in 2020. “House Republicans are now 3-0 in special elections this cycle and, in all three races, the GOP nominee outperformed the 2018 result. In Pennsylvania’s 12th and North Carolina’s 3rd districts, Republicans even outperformed President Donald Trump’s 2016 numbers.”

NICE COLUMN, KID. DON’T GET COCKY. Trump in a Landslide: Here’s Why.

THAT WAS THE WEEK THAT WAS: The Media’s no good, very bad week (and what’s coming next).

I think this week is a harbinger of things to come. Why? Because the Mueller report didn’t work out as Democrats and the media hoped. There’s no public appetite for impeachment. Progressives are getting nervous and the NY Times has signaled privately and publicly, through its 1619 Project, that the 2020 election will be all about racism because that’s the best chance Democrats have to activate their base.

So what’s coming next? A lot more careless mistakes by the usual suspects looking to drag Trump and the GOP down. What this week demonstrates is that many of them care less about their credibility than ensuring the desired outcome. This isn’t really new of course. In fact, some version of this happens every four years. See dog-abusing-vampire-capitalist-with-80s-foreign-policy Mitt Romney for a previous example.

Which dovetails well with Tucker Carlson and Neil Patel’s look at how things went this week with the Democratic Party operatives without bylines, aka the politicians: Crackup in the Democratic Party.

Imagine you’re Biden’s political director, sitting offstage. All of a sudden, Biden wanders into the unscripted territory and says, “Imagine the assassination of Obama.” This is not an attack on Biden, but he’s not going to be the nominee. So the actual race comes down to Warren’s and Sanders’ competing visions of how to achieve the same socialist fantasy. Warren is promising reparations based on skin color. That’s popular. Sanders wants a government takeover of the entire energy sector. They will be working to out-crazy each other for the next six months. That is a dynamic guaranteed to produce even more extremism. And it has some Democratic leaders worried. The Democratic National Committee voted on a proposal to hold a debate focused exclusively on climate change. Why wouldn’t they? Well, because the solutions the candidates would promise live on television are insane: spend $16 trillion, ban airplanes, seize control of the entire U.S. economy.

The Trustafarians love stuff like that. Normal people find it terrifying. Even the party hacks here in D.C. don’t like it, and that’s probably a compliment. Do you really think Nancy Pelosi believes climate change is an existential crisis? Of course, she doesn’t think that. Plus, she flies private. Obama can say whatever he wants about carbon emissions. He can shake his chin and be concerned, but when you’re spending 15 million of your own dollars on a beachfront estate on Martha’s Vineyard, you’re not too worried about the oceans rising. But the Democratic base doesn’t get the joke. Democratic primary voters believe the talking points. And very soon, they will be powerful enough to nominate their own presidential candidate. And when that happens, it’s going to be a very different party.

Nobody should be getting cocky in this election cycle.

Classical reference in headline, from a time when the left still viewed satire as a weapon, before the revolution devoured its own.

DON’T GET COCKY: GOP Smashes Another Fundraising Record in July.

THAT’S NICE, BUT DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS. A ‘recession dashboard’ from Credit Suisse indicates the economy is nowhere near a recession.

DON’T GET COCKY: Joe Biden won’t win.

DON’T GET COCKY: Sean Trende: Yes, The GOP Should Worry About Texas.

MARK ELLIS: Don’t Get Cocky, But Things Look Good for Trump.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump’s economy is on fire, but Democrats aren’t so hot (and that’s why he’ll win in 2020).

Bill Clinton ran in 1992 claiming the brief ’90-’91 recession (which had ended before the election) was the worst economy since the Great Depression. And the media helped him sell that fake news. So it doesn’t really matter to the media what the economy does between now and November, 2020 — they’ll tell whatever story they think will help put a Democrat in the White House.

DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats and Republicans agree — Donald Trump will be re-elected.

DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats are trying their best to keep Trump in the White House. Jon Gabriel’s column in the Arizona Central.

JOHN NOLTE: Democrats Just Had Their Worst Week in 47 Years. “Not since the 1972 discovery that George McGovern’s vice presidential pick, Thomas Eagleton, had been hospitalized and given electroshock treatments have the Democrats had a worse week than the one we just concluded.”

The Fake News Media Is the Only Shrinking Institution in America’s Booming Economy

Before 2019 is over, there will be upwards of 12,000 job cuts within the American media. That’s 12,000 fewer Democrat foot soldiers; 12,000 fewer propagandists, serial liars, cheerleaders, and toadies to hold Antifa’s jacket as they beat elderly Trump supporters to death with crowbars.

Every industry in Trump’s America is expanding and thriving … except for the media.

What’s more, the Democrats primary propaganda outlet, the far-left CNN, is hemorrhaging viewers like an Ebola victim hemorrhages solid foods.

Where’s your god now, Jeff Zucker?

Democrats Lost “The Sane One” Joe Biden

Slow Joe will always be the stupid one, the gaffe machine on the verge of imploding, but he has now openly embraced gun confiscation, taxpayer-funded abortions, the banning of every gun currently being manufactured (except those stupid “smart guns”), raising everyone’s taxes, and putting an end to deportations of illegal immigrants. And now, we don’t really know where Creepy Joe stands on awarding health insurance to illegals and decriminalizing illegal immigration because he’s flip-flopping all over the place on those two.

The so-called “sane one” is an aging moron ready to take our guns, ban all the others, and force us to pay for an illegal alien’s abortion.

Much more at the link, but as always, don’t get cocky.

WELL, HAVE YOU SEEN THE DEMOCRATIC FIELD? Why Trump has reason for optimism in 2020. But don’t get cocky, kids. If you care, you’re better spending your time as a campaign volunteer than surfing the Internet.

DON’T GET COCKY: Democrats Just Had Their Worst Week in 47 Years.

SEE, THIS IS WHY I SAY DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Zogby: Trump behind in battleground states key to 2016 victory.

Related: Trump’s Way To Victory.

WINNING: Democrats fear Trump, Republicans are making inroads with Hispanic voters in Florida.

The usual “Don’t get cocky™” disclaimer aside, Trump’s not-so-secret weapon is going after the other side’s base. Reagan was a master at that, too, but every GOP candidate since then has preemptively surrendered yuge blocks of voters.

Maybe that’s a bit unfair to George W. Bush, who did make some plays towards black and Hispanic voters, but not nearly to the degree Trump does — and much less aggressively, too.

HMM: Rush Limbaugh Has A Nasty Reality Check For Joe Biden.

“Imagine if you’re Joe Biden last night,” said Rush (transcript via RushLimbaugh.com). “You’re Joe Biden last night, and your advisers come in, and they say, ‘Joe, don’t sweat it, don’t sweat anything that happened last night. What happened last night doesn’t mean anything, Joe. The debates are the only thing that matter, Joe, and you’re gonna wipe the floor with this guy, Joe. You’re gonna wipe the floor about him in the debates, and you got the big money behind you, Joe. You got fundraisers, you’re setting records all over. Joe, don’t sweat this stuff last night.’”

But then came a tweet from Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel early Wednesday morning: “Donald Trump has raised a record-breaking $24.8 million in less than 24 hours for his reelection,” she announced. “The enthusiasm across the country for this president is unmatched, unlike anything we have ever seen.”

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: 797 Trump reelection ‘watch parties’ set, six times the number of #ImpeachTrump events.

Here’s why you shouldn’t get cocky: Swing states: Biden dominates, Trump’s reelection in trouble.

CHRISTOPHER ROACH: 2020 Has Echoes of 1996 for the Opposition Party.

The objective facts favor Donald Trump’s reelection for many of the same reasons Clinton was a favorite in 1996. The economy is doing quite well, and his tax cuts and regulatory reforms appear to be at least part of the reason.

Of course, he has not delivered on his main campaign promises, but he appears to his supporters at least to be trying, even in the face of bipartisan resistance. His deviations from promises appear aligned with rather than opposing public opinion.

Also, Trump rather decisively defeated ISIS’s caliphate in Syria, but has so far avoided calls for getting involved in another Middle Eastern war. Even Obama could not avoid this temptation, in spite of running as the “peace candidate” in 2008.

In short, we were warned that Trump would destroy the economy, the norms of good governance, and possibly act recklessly with his “finger on the button” in the event he became president. Instead, everything feels quite normal, prosperous, and predictable.

The gap between the Democratic Party’s hatred of Trump and his results mirrors the chasm between Republican Party’s Clinton hatred and the relatively modest evils of Clinton’s first term as president. Then, as now, there is some “outrage fatigue” among ordinary Americans, who are not nearly as partisan or engaged as the political press, volunteers, and donors who follow politics like a sport in both parties.

More important, by combining this background of ideological fervor and a “ho hum” candidate, Dole failed to excite the base, even as Republican rhetoric alienated those in the middle and within the Democratic Party.

Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Biden Beating Trump in Texas? We’ve Heard This Story Before.

DON’T GET COCKY: Trump Finally Has the Wind at his Back.

DON’T GET COCKY: Why Joe Biden can’t win.

DON’T GET COCKY: Three Modelers Predict Trump Will Be Reelected.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: 3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020.

DON’T GET COCKY, KID: SpaceX Starlink Will Equal Launch Revenue in 2020 and Will Make Elon the World’s Richest Person by 2023. But actually, I hope this is true. If it is, there’ll be lots of other people investing in space development.

CHANGE? Theresa May on track for the worst General Election result in Tory Party history – as Brexit Party is predicted to win more votes than Labour and Conservatives COMBINED in European elections, polls say.

In an Opinium poll in the Observer, focused on this month’s European elections, Nigel Farage’s new party is predicted to hoover up 34 per cent of the vote. The same poll gave Labour 21 per cent and put the Tories in a miserable fourth place with 11 per cent

But an even more extraordinary poll, commissioned by a Brexit Party donor and published in the Sunday Telegraph, said for the first time the Brexit Party would beat the Tories in a General Election.

The ComRes survey of voting intentions put Brexit on 21 per cent to the Conservatives’ 20, which would see Farage’s team win 49 seats, becoming the UK’s second biggest party after Labour, with 137.

Don’t get cocky, of course, and this election is only for the European Parliament, not the actual British Parliament. Even so, Tories ought to weight this advice heavily: “If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.”

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Trump captures Biden’s blue-collar, older voter base.

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s hope of riding the support of blue-collar workers and older voters to the White House has hit a wall called President Trump.

In a survey of key battleground states conducted after Biden entered the 2020 Democratic primary, Trump not only has a 46%-44% edge, but he has a 26-point lead among non-college educated workers earning $75,000 or less, considered the blue-collar base and a Biden target.

What’s more, the battleground state survey from WPA Intelligence showed that Trump does better with Biden’s other main support group, older voters, and has a 48%-44% lead over Biden in Florida, dubbed the Democrat’s “firewall.”

Well, Trump has been a successful President. Biden was an unexceptional Vice President.

ROGER KIMBALL: It doesn’t matter who Trump runs with: he’ll still win in 2020.

I realize we’re talking about Trump here, but still, as Glenn says, don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Four Reasons Why the Dems Will Lose in 2020.

The nation is actually doing quite well under President Trump, although you could never tell if your news comes from MSNBC, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, collectively the propaganda wing of the Democratic Party. Those manufacturing jobs we were told were gone? They are back. That 3% GDP that eluded Trump’s predecessor has returned and been exceeded. Those young black men who could not find work previously? They have found it now. That wealth disparity that Brother Bernie goes on and on about? It has diminished in recent years. Those flat wages? They have increased. Those who gave up looking for jobs? Many have now found the work that eluded them. Such positive news is always downplayed by the media and the Democrats.

The Democrats do best when the nation does poorly.

Remember in ‘92, Bill Clinton said; “It’s the economy, stupid”. When he said that, he did not have the facts regarding the economy on his side, but the message was clear: The economic condition will play a key role in determining the outcome of the election. Today that plays into President Trump’s hands.

Yeah, but I remember the press falling all over themselves to go along with Clinton’s claim that the short and relatively mild recession of late-1990/early-1991 was the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression — even though it was over before the campaign began.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: The Trump 2020 campaign is much, much more formidable than 2016.

RICK MORAN: Forecasting Model that Predicted Trump Win in 2016 Shows the President in Good Shape for 2020. “It won’t matter who the Democrats run if the economy is experiencing modest growth.”

Great model. Don’t get cocky.

CONRAD BLACK: Democrats in 2020: Unelectable Nonentities. “It is now almost too late for the Democrats to shift lanes into plausible electability.”

Don’t get cocky, kid.

CONRAD BLACK: Donald Trump’s Annihilation of the Democratic Party. Nice speech, kid. Don’t get cocky.

RASMUSSEN: Generic Congressional Ballot’s All Tied Up.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead. Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one until early last month. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.

The GOP now has a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But significantly, 20% of these voters remain undecided or prefer someone other than the Republican or Democratic candidates.

In other words: Don’t get cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY, KIDS: Poll: Trump Hits Record High Approval Rating with Black Voters Amid BLEXIT Launch.