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SOME INTERESTING DATA: “The current situation is a sharp contrast to the disparity seen over the summer, when US cases were spiking across much of the Midwest and South while European countries seemed to have kept the coronavirus (mostly) in check due to stricter adherence to social distancing and mask-wearing.” Seemed to. More charts at the link.

A friend on Facebook adds: “This shows data that I am not seeing (at least not this graphically) anywhere else. Basically, for all the trashing of US response to COVID vis-a-vis the EU, it seems that Europe is more out of control. (Sweden has managed to avoid this wave so far). I am mystified that Trump and the GOP don’t talk about these data more OR discuss the contrast between relative success of blue vs red states with COVID.”

DON’T GET COCKY: Biden-Harris Have a Big Problem in Pennsylvania.

Two months ago, Donald Trump’s numbers in Pennsylvania didn’t look good. Now, given this sudden grassroots groundswell, I’m convinced Biden is the one in trouble. That’s no B.S. And it’s Biden’s leftward lurch that has hurt him, especially with the highly ill-advised pick of Kamala Harris, who folk in this area see as a West Coast leftist whose “progressive” bona fides include an unwavering opposition to fracking.

Yes, fracking. Do not underestimate the significance of that issue to this region, and to the kind of guys posting the signs I’m describing. These guys are not white-collar businessmen. No, these are the blue collar, big labor, union hardhats that the Democratic Party once owned. They are totally for Trump.

Trump’s blue-collar appeal is, if anything, even greater than Reagan’s was.


Look, maybe I’m paranoid, but when the impeachment failed, we got the “pandemic lockdown.”  (The virus is real, the reaction to it was pants on the head crazy and a complete overreaction fed — on cue — by the media that had been drumming up the impeachment now feeding panic.)  When that started to fail and break down, as even health authorities turned against it — the mountain numbers on its doing nothing to curb infections and also the infection not being as lethal as claimed are getting hard to ignore, and even Doctor Fauci says there probably won’t be a second wave — we get riots.  Right on cue.  What are the odds?

DON’T GET COCKY: Predicted Blue Wave Crashes In Wisconsin, California Special Elections.

HMM: CA Primary Reveals Bad News For Pelosi. GOP Could Win House Back.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported, “Republicans took a strong first step in the primary election toward grabbing back at least some of the seven California congressional districts that Democrats flipped in 2018. With millions of late-arriving mail ballots still uncounted from Tuesday’s election, Republicans have so far combined for a majority of the votes in six of those seven districts. GOP candidates have solid leads in two of them.”

The Chronicle noted, “In Orange County, GOP candidates were winning a majority of the votes in three of the four targeted districts.” Fred Whitaker, chairman of the Orange County GOP, stated, “On Tuesday night, the waters of the blue wave began to recede … and Republicans showed that we will take back Orange County. The pathway to restoring the House of Representatives is through Orange County.”

It’s good to see the California GOP is only mostly dead.

THIS IS CNN: Anderson Cooper turns the air blue with risque line about male Hollywood stars while downing tequila shots with Andy Cohen on live CNN coverage of New Year’s Eve in Times Square. Both Cooper and co-host Andy Cohen were “downing tequila, loosening up their commentary and spicing up the evening’s festivities…Cooper, who is listening to someone on an ear piece and appears to ask if the manhood reference can be said on live television verbatim, decided to clarify with the exact quote…’She [Cooper’s mom, the late Gloria Vanderbilt], turns to me out of the blue and goes, ‘He’s not going to ask me who’s got the biggest c–k in Hollywood, is he?’ That’s what she said’. Cohen waves his hands and responds, ‘Anderson just said it, ok.’”

I’m so old, I can remember September of 2017, when CNN’s Brooke Burke channeled her inner Margaret Dumont, and pretended to get the vapors over sportswriter Clay Travis saying that he believes in “the First Amendment and boobs.”

BLUE ON BLUE: Progressives fume at Buttigieg, warn him not to attack Warren at debate.

Buttigieg, who has emerged as a center-left contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, has drawn the ire of progressives in recent days for remarks viewed as swipes against more liberal contenders like Warren and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas).

“It’s sad to see the potential self destruction of @PeteButtigieg, a rising star,” tweeted Adam Green, a cofounder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which backs Warren. “Tuesday will be a key trajectory moment. Does he attack the next President of The United States or take the high road and make positive waves by adding his unique voice to progressive issues of the day?”

The warning comes as Buttigieg has been rising in Iowa polls, positioning him to become a potential top-tier challenger to Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden.

It’s the old, “You don’t have to fall in love. You just have to fall in line.”

ANNALS OF LEFTIST AUTOPHAGY: Rahm Emanuel calls AOC’s chief of staff “a snot-nosed punk,” according to Maureen Dowd in a column titled “Scaling Wokeback Mountain:”

And then there’s the real instigator, Saikat Chakrabarti, A.O.C.’s 33-year-old chief of staff, who co-founded Justice Democrats and Brand New Congress, both of which recruited progressives — including A.O.C. — to run against moderates in Democratic primaries. The former Silicon Valley Bernie Bro assumed he could apply Facebook’s mantra, “Move fast and break things,” to one of the oldest institutions in the country.

But Congress is not a place where you achieve radical progress — certainly not in divided government. It’s a place where you work at it and work at it and don’t get everything you want.

The progressives act as though anyone who dares disagree with them is bad. Not wrong, but bad, guilty of some human failing, some impurity that is a moral evil that justifies their venom.

Chakrabarti sent shock waves through the Democratic caucus when he posted a tweet about the border bill comparing moderate and Blue Dog Democrats — some of whom are black — to Southern segregationists in the ’40s.

Rahm Emanuel told me Chakrabarti is “a snot-nosed punk” who has no idea about the battle scars Pelosi bears from the liberal fights she has led.

“What votes did you get?” Emanuel said, rhetorically challenging A.O.C.’s chief of staff. “You should only be so lucky to learn from somebody like Nancy who has shown incredible courage and who has twice returned the Democratic Party to power.

Talk about projection — Chakrabarti simply doesn’t want to let an (imaginary) crisis go to waste to transform the entire American economy.


If the name “Amy McGrath” doesn’t ring a bell it’s because she was one of the few Dems running last fall who *lost* a toss-up House race against her Republican opponent. She fell a few points short against Rep. Andy Barr in KY-6 despite her credentials as the first woman to fly in combat for the Marines and a viral campaign ad that made her a figure of national interest to Democrats. She raised big big big money as a result, making her a serious threat to knock off Barr in a rematch if the political climate is trending blue next fall.

Instead she’s going to challenge the most influential man in the Senate, who has the number of every major Republican donor in the country in his phone’s contacts and has had only one close-ish race in the last 25 years. That came in the Democratic Hopenchange wave of 2008; even with Obama fever at its peak, Dems couldn’t knock off Cocaine Mitch in Kentucky. Now here’s McGrath ready to challenge him in a presidential election year, with Trump at the top of the ballot in a state he won by just a hair under 30 points.

In the meantime, McGrath will get the full Beto/Wendy Davis/Stacey Abrams treatment by the DNC-MSM, beginning with: NYT journo compares Amy McGrath to Luke Skywalker.

Wait a second — Mitch McConnell is Amy’s father? And she’s become a full-on communist-inspired slave-owning religious terrorist, killing hundreds of thousands to protest dad’s firm but fair rule? Who’s side is the Times on here?

JULIE BINDEL: Camille Paglia vs the trans-Taliban: The feminist thinker has a fight on her hands.

Camille Paglia has joined the ever-growing list of women in the metaphorical stocks being pelted with accusations of transphobia. A number of blue-fringed students at her university are demanding she be fired for her statements criticizing some women who bring charges of sexual assault, and because of her comments about transgender people. ‘I am highly skeptical about the current transgender wave, which I think has been produced by far more complicated psychological and sociological factors than current gender discourse allows’, she said in 2017.

Explain to them that they are a small fringe of neurotics, and that normals aren’t required to take their views seriously, much less refrain from expressing their own opinions for fear of upsetting a small fringe of neurotics.

I’M NOT SAYING THAT IT’S ALIENS, BUT IT’S ALIENS: Strange waves rippled around the world, and nobody knows why. “They’re too nice; they’re too perfect to be nature.”

Though I suppose that BLUE HADES aren’t, technically, aliens.

SALENA ZITO: Yes, there’s a political realignment. Just look at the Republican wins — and losses — in Ohio.

In no state was the realignment in American politics more apparent in last week’s midterm elections than in the Buckeye State.

It’s not just that Republicans swept the statewide executive offices, most illustrative was where and how they did it.

Here in Mahoning County, where Democrats have held the political upper-hand for nearly a century, Republican candidates are now much more competitive. And some of those Republicans win.

Michael Rulli eked out a win in the state senate race in the 33rd District. Don Manning won a race in the 59th District. Two Republicans are going to Columbus representing the Mahoning Valley.

Meanwhile, in Franklin County, where Republicans have held the political upper-hand in the sprawling suburban county for decades, GOP candidates went down hard. Voters flipped three open state legislative seats from Republicans to Democrats. Mary Lightbody won the19th District, Dr. Beth Liston won the 21st District and Allison Russo won the 24th District.

All women, all in suburbs, all in districts Hillary Clinton won by 10 percentage points in 2016.

In short, the Mahoning Valley has shifted from blue to purple and Franklin County flipped from red to blue.

While everyone has focused on the nationwide wave, and they should, in the process they missed the realignment in real time in Ohio when one of the most Democratic counties in the state in Mahoning, weakened to being very competitive for Republicans, and one of the most Republican counties in the state in Franklin has flipped blue.

So if you lived in a suburb you rejected Trump through your vote against any Republican running for office, if you lived in a mixed area, where suburbs, exurbs, and blue-collar neighborhoods overlap each other, you voted more for Republicans.

Read the whole thing.

WHATEVER HAPPENED TO THAT “BLUE WAVE?” “A look at the electoral map shows that much of America, from the Appalachians to the Sierra Nevada and the Cascades, returned Republicans to both the Senate and the House. Not all of these people are undereducated. Not all of them are working class. Many live in suburbs, many are independent, many are even women!”

IF YOU STILL HAVEN’T EXPLAINED TUESDAY’S RESULTS TO YOUR KIDS: “Uncle Strickland” at the Washington Free Beacon has it all laid out for you. Here’s a sample:

“I’m certainly no stranger when it comes to discussing politics with children. My nephews, Brayden and Attechus, are a pair of pompous, pampered hipsters who embody everything wrong with their generation — lazy cynics masquerading as intellectuals who trust Amazon to pack their orders of neckbeard oil and ironic tank tops, but don’t trust Arby’s to pack a sandwich full of succulent, slow-roasted American beef. I’ve had to set them straight a time or two at holiday gatherings. But when it comes to my own offspring, and other patriotic children, the conversations aren’t always so much fun.”


MY USA TODAY COLUMN ON THE ELECTIONS: Election results 2018: Forget the blue wave and behold the purple puddle.

ROGER KIMBALL: The midterms delivered a feeble rivulet, not a blue wave.

YEAH, PRETTY MUCH: The blue wave ran into Trump’s red wall.

MY USA TODAY COLUMN ON THE ELECTIONS: Election results 2018: Forget the blue wave and behold the purple puddle.

MY USA TODAY COLUMN ON THE ELECTIONS: Election results 2018: Forget the blue wave and behold the purple puddle.

MY USA TODAY COLUMN ON THE ELECTIONS: Election results 2018: Forget the blue wave and behold the purple puddle.

THE LEFT IS 100% RESULT-ORIENTED: The Left is preparing either to praise or vilify white women, depending on today’s results.

The Right has a steadfast fall guy, rightly or wrongly, in media bias. We’ve seen the Left, instead, try to reinvent excuses for the past two years. But it initially chose fake news, only to realize that Republicans would effectively hijack it. Then came Russia, followed by the laments of the electoral college.

Leading up to today, two narratives have emerged from the Left. First is the statistically probable one — namely that the blue wave is significantly contingent on suburban white women swinging left, in tandem with voter turnout. On the other side of the coin is the excuse: If Democrats lose, it’s because fragile, complicit white women couldn’t leave the kitchen long enough to vote against their husbands.

This isn’t a straw man. It’s their actual argument. Tamika Mallory, Women’s March organizer and Louis Farrakhan BFF, calls the demographic trend of white women voting for Republicans their ” Becky situation.”

“Dear white women: Here’s how to step up for women of color,” wrote Victoria Rodriguez at Mashable. (Spoiler alert: Vote “intersectional,” read: Democrat.)

Pod Save America warned the “47 percent of White Women who didn’t sell us out” to convince the 53 percent who voted for Trump to go blue.

Best yet, Jen Kirkman warned white women, “Vote like your husbands aren’t watching.” Because naturally, all white women still live in a kitchen in Victorian England. Or modern-day Iran.

And as for the white women who don’t follow the blue line? Ex-GOP strategist Cheri Jacobus says they are a part of his “rancid, racist base,” comprising solely of “uneducated white men ( and the women who make them their sandwiches).”

To be fair, the Insta-Wife makes an awesome sandwich. She sent me off with one for the plane last weekend.

THIS WAS ROLLED OUT A BIT LATE: One way to get that blue wave rolling: CNN feminist commentator tells women to go on a sex strike to get their husbands to vote Democratic. The assumption that all women vote Democrat is also adorable.

BLUE WAVE? Nate Silver Admits He Doesn’t Know What’s Going to Happen With Midterms. “Both outcomes ‘extremely possible’.”

FROM HER MOUTH TO GOD’S EARS:  Tuesday Will Tell: Blue Wave or Red Tsunami?

Slap the fake “resistance” back, put an end to their antifa tantrums, their Kavanaugh slimings, their “exactly like Hitler” slanders.  Slap them so hard they’ll still be reeling by 2020.  Vote. If there’s no one you wish to vote for, vote against your local democrat/socialist/progressive/whatever the heck they call themselves this Tuesday.  Vote like your life depends on it. Stop Nancy Pelosi’s announced contract on America.
As Based Lindsey Graham said, these people should not be allowed anywhere near power.  Not until and unless they gain some measure of sanity.

BLUE WAVE? Republicans are still killing it in the early voting.

BLUE WAVE? Cook Political Report outlook: Democrats gain 30-40 seats in House, up from 25-35. “Wasserman added that this prediction could change before the Nov. 6 midterm elections.”

That’s just a few days from now and early voting is breaking records, so I’m taking that last line as an indicator that they don’t really know.

ROGER KIMBALL: They Can’t Bear the Thought That Trump’s Win Was No Anomaly. “Adamant anti-Trump and NeverTrump commentators have circulated and then taken solace from the Blue Wave meme not because they are especially credulous, but because the election of Donald Trump offended their sense of existential propriety.”

I’m still dumbfounded by supposedly principled conservatives who place personality and NOKD snobbery above principles.

CHRISTIAN TOTO: Are Hard Left Celebrity PSAs Losing Steam? “Hollywood’s biggest stars are back, begging you to support the Blue Wave. “But is anyone watching them?”

ANALYSIS: TRUE. “If there’s no blue wave the Dems will blame it on gerrymandering, Russia, racism, sexism and xenophobia rather than having some introspection about why voters continually reject their ideas.” The Democratic Party is the crazy ex-girlfriend of American politics. They just can’t move on after a rejection.

ANDREW SULLIVAN: Democrats Can’t Keep Dodging Immigration As a Real Issue.

It’s the optics that are fatal. The image of that caravan, crammed with thousands of desperate brown human beings, winding its way tortuously through Central America and Mexico, headed to a showdown at the U.S. border, is a white nationalist’s twisted fantasy. The question is not if George Soros funded it, but if Steve Bannon did (I’m kidding, I’m kidding). It reminds me of that infamous poster in the Brexit campaign which showed a long, packed line of migrants, in theory waiting to enter Britain, with the slogan: “Breaking Point.” . . .

I’m an immigrant myself. But it doesn’t answer a simple question. What do we do when the caravan gets here? And more saliently: What do we do if many more caravans show up behind it? This is not an abstract question. It’s a pressing, practical, and in some ways existential one. It cuts to the core of whether the United States has to choose between being inhumane to the point of betraying some core moral principles and remaining a sovereign nation in control of who joins its population. . . .

All of it is putting unprecedented strain on liberal democracy in the West itself. The connection between mass migration and the surge in far-right parties in Europe is now indisputable. Without this issue, Donald Trump would not be president. As we can see right now in front of our eyes, elections can turn on this. Which is why Trump is hyping this caravan story to the heavens — and why, perhaps, the last few weeks have seemed less promising for a “blue wave.” David Frum is right: “If liberals insist that only fascists will defend borders, then voters will hire fascists to do the job liberals will not do.” And unless the Democrats get a grip on this question, and win back the trust of the voters on it, their chance of regaining the presidency is minimal.

One of the messages that Democrats’ unconcern sends to voters is that to Democrats, voters are fungible. They really don’t care about Americans who are already here, if they can get more votes by importing others. It’s basically “Message: I don’t care.”

BLUE WAVE? Flop Sweat: Democrats Pour Nearly Three Million More Dollars Into…New Jersey.

Don’t get cocky.

BLUE WAVE: Menendez In Trouble As Cook Moves New Jersey Senate Race to ‘Toss-Up.’

MICHAEL BARONE: Will ‘burly men’ stop the Democrats’ blue wave?

Do they live in two different worlds? White college graduate women favor Democrats over Republicans in House elections, 62 to 35 percent. White noncollege-graduate men favor Republicans over Democrats in House elections, 58 to 38 percent.

Those results are from a Washington Post poll conducted only in 69 seriously contested congressional districts, 63 of them currently held by Republicans. The numbers in other polls are only slightly different for these two groups.

They all tell the same story. These Americans live in the same relatively small slices of America (average population about 750,000), not many miles away from each other. But they take very different — often angrily different — views of where the nation is headed and on sensitive issues. . . .

It’s not that white college women are diehard Keynesians and white noncollege men supply-siders. People tend to tailor their economic theories to partisan preference, not vice versa. But the economic policies of the last two administrations and concurrent trends have had — and were intended to have — very different effects on white college women and white noncollege men.

President Barack Obama’s 2009 stimulus package was heavily tilted toward college women. As my American Enterprise Institute colleague Christina Hoff Summers wrote in The Weekly Standard in June 2009, the Obama economic team’s original idea was to finance infrastructure, construction, and manufacturing, sectors which lost 3 million jobs in 2007-09.

But feminist groups objected. Obama economist Christina Romer, Summers wrote, recalled that her first email “was from a women’s group saying, ‘We don’t want this stimulus package to just create jobs for burly men.’” So Obama ditched his “macho” stimulus plan for one stimulating creation of jobs in government and especially in education and healthcare, which had gained 588,000 jobs during the 2007-09 recession. Forget the bridge-building and electric grid modernization; let’s subsidize more administrators, facilitators, liaisons.

The results were disappointing. Sputtering growth nudged up toward 3 percent and down toward zero, which is what it was during the last quarter of the Obama administration. Administrators outnumbered teachers in higher education but added little value; government payrolls were sheltered from cuts, temporarily. There was little recovery in blue-collar jobs, and millions of men lingered on the disability rolls. Life-expectancy fell among downscale groups amid a rise in opioid dependency and deaths.

The trajectory of the economy — and the beneficiaries — seem different in the Trump presidency so far. Growth is more robust, obviously, though some economists thought this was impossible, and the the biggest gains are, in contrast to the last 30 years, in blue-collar jobs and downscale earnings.

Yep. You know, if Obama had stuck with his instincts on infrastructure, he could have cemented Democratic rule for a generation. But when he caved to the feminists, he planted the seeds for the Trump revolution.

ROGER SIMON: Does It Matter Which Crazy Sent the Bombs?

Even if Brennan was misspelled, Occam’s Razor is beginning to spell “HOAX”  correctly.  But by and for whom?  Here as well we don’t know, but again followers of William of Ockham would tend to point you toward the left wing – a single leftie nutcase or some Antifa types, perhaps. After all, cui bono?  With Kavanaugh and the caravan, things were not looking good for the Democrats. The subject had to be changed before it was too late and the blue wave turned red. So far, however, it’s not working.

No wonder the reliably left-leaning Chuck Todd is suddenly pointing toward Russia, not some MAGA-hatted redneck with a Confederate flag tattooed on his chest, as the perpetrator. It’s a dead giveaway.  He’s probably hoping for the Russians now.  Because if it goes as it’s currently looking, it’s bad news for his team.

Read the whole thing.

BLUE WAVE? Republican Patrick Morrisey Takes Lead Over Sen. Manchin in West Virginia. “Morrisey, the state attorney general, leads Manchin 44 percent to 42 percent in new poll.”

CONRAD BLACK: About That ‘Blue Wave.’

Those repelled by Trump will not soften until he has retired as president, as with those who hated Franklin D. Roosevelt for spurious ideological or mythic reasons (such as that he gave Eastern Europe to Stalin); or those who disparaged Reagan as “an amiable dunce,” in the words of Clark Clifford, the ageless and elegant Washington fixer and an unsuccessful defense secretary. It would be at least premature, and perhaps wildly optimistic, to compare Trump to FDR and Reagan, the two greatest presidents since Lincoln, but as the voters proceed to the polls in two weeks, they will have to reflect on the indisputable fact of President Trump’s successes. He took a sluggish economy where GDP growth per capita had declined from 4.5 percent under President Reagan to 1 percent under President Obama, under whom federal debt increased by 233 percent in eight years. He has focused attention on the unutterable scandal of the steady influx of millions of illiterate peasants, including many violent criminals, across the southern border, and is the enemy of the permissiveness of “sanctuary” and the prohibition of constitutionally mandated census-takers to ask respondents’ citizenship. Trump has made himself the sole possible agent of enforcement of nuclear nonproliferation by his actions to prevent North Korea and Iran from becoming nuclear military powers, a status that his predecessors effectively conceded to them.

Obama said 2 percent economic growth is the “new normal,” as poverty, food-stamp use, and violence increased. Trump has created a full-employment economy and generated the first increases in purchasing power and job security in this millennium for the lower third of Roosevelt’s “forgotten man at the bottom of the economic pyramid.” I don’t believe that most pollsters have adjusted their techniques to allow for a higher voting turnout from what used to be the white working class, or to allow for the reluctance of many Trump voters to identify themselves.

As I was saying earlier, there’s a big gap between the polls and how it feels like this election ought to go.

DON’T GET COCKY: The 2018 Democratic ‘Blue Wave’ May Be a Dud.

DON’T MESS WITH TEXAS: Gov. Greg Abbott: George Soros ‘is trying to turn Texas into California.’

“George Soros has been involved in Texas elections for the past couple of cycles,” Abbott explained. “He is trying to turn Texas into California, and that’s on top of all this money pouring in from California for candidates like Beto.”

They also discussed the growing caravan of migrants currently headed for the U.S. border. Read the latest on the migrant caravan here.

“If you think these are people who are leaving Honduras or Guatemala or wherever they’re coming from, [and are] just trying to escape violence and seek asylum, that is incorrect,” Abbott said. “This is very well organized. It’s funded. There are others who are behind this. And very importantly, in this caravan [there] are not just people from Honduras and Guatemala. We know that some of the leaders of it are involved in MS-13. We know that some of the people are from countries across the globe.”

As I said yesterday, this “caravan” is a national security concern rather than an immigration issue.

BLUE WAVE? Dem holds single-digit lead in race to replace Franken.


Once upon a time Hollywood was in the entertainment business.  Today that’s taken a backseat to indulging the egos which exist in their exclusive liberal bubble.  As the rest of us tune in to laugh and be entertained, they offer instead a steady dose of self-righteous lectures and activism blown our way, often laced with hate and antagonism.

In an interview with the Hollywood Reporter, British actress Claire Foy admitted she wanted to “violently hurt” a supporter of then Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh at an anti-Kavanaugh protest.

Foy said, “I have a real problem with people not understanding the effect that they have on other people.”

I hope she doesn’t trip over her irony while riding her high horse.

Most of us who don’t spend our days bouncing around in an ultra-liberal bubble also have a problem with people not understanding the effect they have on other people. Particularly, people who want to physically harm another human being just because they disagree with them.

Yeah, that’s a real problem for us.

Foy, along with Ryan Gosling, stars in “First Man,” which got an “F” for flop in its opening weekend at the box office after being engulfed in controversy for excluding an iconic scene where Neil Armstrong plants an American flag on the moon.  Gosling justified the move saying “I think this was widely regarded in the end as a human achievement.”

Gosling wasn’t even alive when President John F. Kennedy called on America to be first on the moon, or to witness the space race with the Soviets, or to see how that competitive environment drove countless scientists and technicians to do the tireless work that led to that historic and timeless visual.

Kennedy famously said, “We choose to go to the moon…and do the other things not because they are easy but because they are hard.”

But whatever, let’s disregard one of the greatest accomplishments in American history and give everyone a participation trophy.

Or as Glenn noted in his latest USA Today column: Blue Wave’s Biggest Weakness: Voters Reject Political Correctness By Huge Margins.

MY USA TODAY COLUMN: Blue Wave’s Biggest Weakness: Voters Reject Political Correctness By Huge Margins.

MY USA TODAY COLUMN: Blue Wave’s Biggest Weakness: Voters Reject Political Correctness By Huge Margins.

MY USA TODAY COLUMN: Blue Wave’s Biggest Weakness: Voters Reject Political Correctness By Huge Margins.

MY USA TODAY COLUMN: Blue Wave’s Biggest Weakness: Voters Reject Political Correctness By Huge Margins.

BLUE WAVE? Dems’ midterm advantage narrows among registered voters as Trump’s approval rating rises, poll finds.

It’s a little too close to election day to still be polling registered voters, who trend more Democrat than likely voters.

BLUE WAVE? Interest in Midterms Surges, Along With Trump Approval Rating.

Nearly two thirds of registered voters showed a high level of interest in the election—the highest ever recorded in a midterm election since the Journal/NBC poll began asking the question in 2006.

“It’s a barnburner,” Bill McInturff, a GOP pollster who conducted the survey with Democrat Fred Yang, said of the surge of voter interest. “There’s a switch that’s been flipped…They are engaging in the campaign and the process.”

The Kavanaugh hearings made a lot of people sit up and notice.

BLUE TSUNAMI OR BLUE SPLASH?:  John Fund’s report is somewhat more optimistic than I am about the GOP’s chances of retaining the House.  But judge for yourself.

Meanwhile, I’ve been getting a deluge of emails from left-leaning political organizations.  I got one yesterday that said Cruz and O’Rourke are “officially tied” and asked for more money.  Note that if a corporation made a similar statement about its business prospects it would be sued for securities violations and fraud.


BLUE WAVE? Dem congressional candidates raise over $1B in record haul.

This would be a great time to step away from the computer screen and volunteer for a vulnerable local candidate.

SLATE: Republicans Aren’t Running on Taxes Anymore. They’re Running on Bigotry.

This schtick was played out in 2012 at the latest, but Jamelle Bouie keeps going back to it.

MEGAN MCARDLE: “If the Blue Wave collapses before it hits shore, Democrats may need to ask whether #MeToo and other forms of identity politics are really the wave of the Democratic future.”

Democrats have been waiting for that wave to crest for a long time, at least since the 2002 publication of “The Emerging Democratic Majority” by John Judis and Ruy Teixeira. That book’s modest thesis suggested that demographic trends would increase traditional Democratic constituencies while slowly shrinking the GOP’s base, as long as Democrats could find a way to hold their then-current coalition together.

By 2016, many saw that as prophecy: All they needed to do was wait for the GOP’s atavistic denizens to die off, leaving the country to those on the right side of history.

Yet salvation keeps failing to arrive.

Yeah that “emerging Democratic majority” stuff was the best disinformation op ever.

BLUE WAVE? Conservative Leah Vukmir Looks To Defeat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) in Wisconsin. “The most recent poll shows Baldwin leading Vukmir by 10 points, 53% to 43%. Asked about this, Vukmir responded by noting that the usually reliable poll has been all over the map since the beginning of the senatorial campaign, showing her at one point trailing by 30 points and at another two points behind, well within the margin of error. Vukmir also noted that the polling was done before the recent debate at the University of Wisconsin Milwaukee campus, in which she clearly dominated an uncomfortable and often flustered Baldwin.”

Good bio of an unconventional candidate in a largely overlooked race.

BLUE WAVE? Polarization Seems to Be Helping Republicans in Run-Up to Midterms. “Energized voters on the right dim prospects for big Democratic gains in red districts and states.”

Nate Cohn:

The fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court seems to have contributed to polarizing the electorate, helping Republicans gain in red states and districts even as Democrats cement their strong position elsewhere. The trend might fade, but if it holds it will be an abrupt change from earlier polls and last year’s special election results, which indicated that Democrats were highly competitive in red areas.

Instead, the district and state polling raises the possibility of an election more like last year’s Virginia elections or the 2010 midterm elections. Both were strong results for the party out of power — but the big numbers came mainly on home turf. A similar result this year would tend to lock the Democrats into their single biggest disadvantage: the map.

The Democratic geographic disadvantage is so severe that it gives the Republicans a chance to survive a so-called wave election, like the 1994, 2006 and 2010 elections that flipped control of the House.

Don’t. Get. Cocky.

DON’T GET COCKY: Don’t expect a big Democratic wave this fall, a new CNBC poll says.

BLUE WAVE: ABC: Generic Ballot In Battleground Districts Is … R+1? Nice poll, kid. Don’t get cocky.

Related: Salena Zito: A Republican red tide is pushing back against the Dems’ blue wave. “If people like Westbrook and Vogel coalesce around the GOP, the Democrats could be in trouble. And if the Democrats keep supporting people who claw at the doors of the Supreme Court in protest, or harass Republicans and their families at dinners, or talk nonstop about impeachment or echo Hillary Clinton’s sentiment that: ‘You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for,’ then they may do what I thought unlikely: stop their own blue wave mid-flow.”

WHY IS THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY SUCH A CESSPIT OF OPEN ILLEGALITY? Video: Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams: Democrats’ “blue wave” in November would be comprised of those who are “documented and undocumented.”

BLUE WAVE? With Florida Governor’s Race Tied, Donors and Hillary Rally to Democrat’s Rescue. “DeSantis-Gillum gubernatorial election described as the ‘most nationalized race for Florida governor we’ve ever seen.'”

BLUE WAVE: Texas: Cruz 54, O’Rourke 45. But the GOP shouldn’t get cocky. There are weeks to go, and weeks are like years in today’s politics.

BLUE WAVE? Kavanaugh Effect: GOP Fundraising Up 500 Percent in Past Few Weeks.

To be clear, that’s a Five followed by two Zeros.

UH OH – BAD NEWS FOR FOLKS COUNTING ON A BLUE WAVE: Rasmussen Reports surveyed 1,000 people earlier this week and found Republicans are significantly madder than Democrats about the treatment of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh during his confirmation and the GOPers are also more likely to vote as a result.

Rasmussen also says its latest generic ballot survey shows voters split evenly, 45-45, on which party’s candidates they plan to support on election day. Remember, Rasmussen only talks to likely voters, who are routinely better barometers for election day than folks who are only registered voters.

Go here for the rest of the story, he says modestly.

BLUE WAVE? Democratic fundraiser says America is racist and sexist, ‘F–k the bible voters.’ “Democrats are hoping to make gains in Republican-leaning congressional districts by running moderates with biographies that appeal to center-right voters including veterans, gun owners, and football players, and in doing so have distanced themselves from the far-left of the Democratic Party.”

This is the same bait-and-switch the Democrats used in part to win back the House in 2006. After the last fews weeks though, it seems less and less likely that voters will fall for it a second time.

BLUE WAVE? Multiple pollsters now warning Dems they may fall short of winning the House.

Nobody should get cocky in this election cycle.


This process has inflicted real damage to Judge Kavanaugh and Ms. Ford—enough to make any intelligent citizen wonder if it would ever be worth entering public service. But the most immediate casualty is likely to be the much-hyped November blue wave. If a vote for a Democratic majority in the Senate is a vote for the tactics of Sen. Feinstein, or for the boorish behavior of Sens. Blumenthal, Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, then that vote may not materialize at all.

In the Missouri Senate race, Republican Josh Hawley has overtaken incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill, largely in reaction to the Kavanaugh hearings. In North Dakota, Republican Kevin Cramer has opened up a yawning lead over Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. The newest Quinnipiac and NPR/PBS NewsHour polls show that the Democratic generic-ballot advantage has halved and the party’s enthusiasm advantage has vanished.

Napoleon counted on offensive bluster at Waterloo to give him victory, and it failed. By amplifying the politicization of the judiciary, Democrats may have achieved a Waterloo—but not the one they imagined.

Read the whole thing.

BLUE WAVE? GOP Cuts Into Dem Lead In House Races, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds.

Five weeks before the Midterm Elections, 49 percent of American voters back the Democratic candidate in their local race for the U.S. House of Representatives and 42 percent support the Republican candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

This compares to the results of a September 12 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University National Poll, showing Democrats with a 52 – 38 percent lead.

I wonder what might have happened in the last few weeks to cause such a large red shift?

Now if only the NRCC, which seems to be in the midst of a preemptive surrender, would take note.

THE AKAKA BILL, IT’S BAAACK!!: Out of nowhere, my Democratic colleagues on the U.S. Comm’n on Civil Rights have decided to attach an endorsement of the proposed Native Hawaiian Government Reorganization Act (formerly nicknamed “the Akaka Bill”) to an unrelated report.  The report will then be fast-tracked.

For reasons you can read about in the testimony I gave several years ago before the House Committee on Natural Resources, the Akaka bill—which would facilitate the creation of what would likely be the nation’s Indian tribe—has always been a very bad idea. During the Bush Era, the Commission’s majority recommended against it.  Fortunately, when the GOP took the House of Representatives in 2011, the bill got shelved.

The Obama Administration tried to achieve the same result through administrative action, but so far, those efforts have not yet borne fruit. It now looks like supporters of the idea of Native Hawaiian sovereignty are hoping for a blue wave that will put the bill back on the legislative agenda.


Betteridge almost always gets the last laugh on headline writers.

BLUE WAVE? NRCC Cancels $1 Million In Ads In Vulnerable House Seat.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has reportedly decided to cut at least $1 million in advertising that was going toward helping Rep. Kevin Yoder of Kansas as the GOP re-evaluates certain candidates’ chances of winning heading into November.

Yoder, who has served in Kansas’ 3rd congressional district since 2011, was endorsed by President Donald Trump and faces Sharice Davids in November’s election.

The NRCC’s decision to slash advertising for Yoder reportedly comes from the organization’s lack of confidence that Yoder can pull out a win against Davids, The Hill reports, who would become Kansas’ first Native American and openly gay nominee for Congress.

Republicans have cut funding and advertisements for several other races as well in recent months where it’s similarly unsure of their chances against Democrats amid a so-called “blue wave.”

Both the NRCC and the Congressional Leadership Fund have pulled ads from Reps. Keith Rothfus of Pennsylvania, Mike Coffman of Colorado and Mike Bishop of Michigan, the report states.

This would be an excellent time to find a vulnerable candidate to donate to, or better yet volunteer for their campaign.

BLUE WAVE? There Is Still Time To Help Save the Senate:

Pretty much all observers expect the Democrats to capture the House in November. If they do, they will impeach President Trump. But the much more serious danger is that they may also take the Senate. If that happens, the Trump administration will be paralyzed. The Democrats likely will refuse to confirm a single significant appointment. I would not rule out the possibility of a constitutional crisis, if the Democrats try to bring the executive branch to a standstill by abusing its “advise and consent” power to insist that President Trump nominate Democrats to key posts in the administration and the judiciary. In the Democrats’ disgraceful obstruction of Brett Kavanaugh’s appointment to the Supreme Court, we have a preview of the insanity that will reign if they become a Senate majority.

Read the whole thing.

MATTHEW CONTINETTI: Call the Roll on Kavanaugh: It’s time to see where each senator stands.

The Democratic strategy toward Judge Brett Kavanaugh has been apparent since September 4. Within minutes of Chuck Grassley calling the Judiciary Committee to order, Democrats began to interrupt him. They wanted to delay the hearing until their demands for documents had been met. They managed to prolong the hearing for about an hour. Then they retreated.

The objective was clear: Delaying the confirmation would be tantamount to defeating the confirmation. Why? Because if the delay lasted past Election Day, and if Democrats took the Senate, then the empowered minority could pressure two wayward Republicans into voting No. In January the Democratic Senate could block any subsequent Trump nominee—payback for Merrick Garland. . . .

What is clear is that the Senate must vote, up or down, on Kavanaugh’s nomination. One way or another, the roll must be called. Yeas and Nays must be recorded.

For two reasons. The first is political. If Republicans walk away from Kavanaugh now, especially after Lindsey Graham’s philippic, the conservative grassroots will revolt and the midterm election will be an unmitigated disaster. According to polls, the GOP has already lost the middle. It cannot afford to lose the right. The base is the difference between no wave and a blue wave, between a blue wave and a tsunami. Let each senator say what he or she believes, and record that judgment by vote. Even if the nomination fails because no Democrat votes yes and two Republicans vote no, that is a better outcome for the GOP than no vote at all. Conservatives expect to be disappointed by individual Republicans. No vote? Conservatives walk away.

The other reason to call the roll is more abstract. This story is about more than an allegation of sexual assault. It has become a matter of political precedent. The public deserves to know the Senate’s position on the following question: Are uncorroborated allegations, sometimes made anonymously, from high school and college enough to disqualify men and women from appointed office? Are we prepared to establish a standard by which appointees are judged by comments in a high school yearbook, statements from classmates 30 or 35 years ago, and attendance at student parties where alcohol was consumed?

If we are to go down this road, then we should know where each of the 100 men and women elected to the United States Senate, including Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Jeff Flake, stand at the outset. How else will we be able to apportion blame when the three Furies arrive? Because they are on their way.

Read the whole thing.

BLUE WAVE? The Return of the “Broken Glass Voter.”

BLUE WAVE? Republican Party Favorability Highest in Seven Years.


Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September’s 36%. It is the party’s most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections. Forty-four percent give the Democratic Party a favorable rating.

The parity in Republicans’ and Democrats’ favorable ratings marks a change from what has generally been the case since Barack Obama’s election as president in November 2008. Republicans have usually been rated less positively than Democrats over this time, with the Republican Party’s favorability rating for the last decade averaging 39%, compared with the Democratic Party’s 44%.

There’s been a big uptick in the last two or three months.

BLUE WAVE? Huge Upset for GOP in Texas: State Senate Seat Flips Red for First Time in 139 Years. “Apparently, Beto O’Rourke is sucking all of the oxygen out of the state’s Democratic Party resources.”

BLUE WAVE? Obama’s Return May Energize Republicans More Than Democrats.

BLUE WAVE: Democrats surge in new midterm election poll.

But it doesn’t matter what the polls say. If you care, you should be out volunteering and donating.

NEWS YOU CAN USE: Don’t Fool Yourself — The Blue Wave Is Probably Real.

BLUE WAVE: Is this a blue state? GOP governor looks unbeatable in Mass.

BLUE WAVE? GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter up by 8 points despite indictment.

BLUE WAVE? Fox News Poll: Democrats maintain lead in race for House.

Several findings point to the potential for a blue map in November:

– President Trump’s job rating remains underwater.

– Republicans alone say the economy is in positive shape.

– The GOP tax law is less popular (40 percent favorable) than Obamacare (51 percent favorable).

– The Republican Party is less popular (39 percent favorable) than the Democratic Party (50 percent favorable).

– Optimism about life for the next generation of Americans is down eight points from last year.

– There is greater enthusiasm to vote in the midterms among out-of-power Democrats.

It’s never too soon to donate, or even better, volunteer for a local campaign.

DON’T GET COCKY:  CBS News pollster reveals why ‘blue wave’ is unlikely.

HMM: New York’s 19th Congressional District Resists ‘Blue Wave.’

Nobody, red or blue, should get cocky. And if you care about this, pick a campaign to donate to or volunteer for.

DON’T GET COCKY:  CBS News pollster reveals why ‘blue wave’ is unlikely.

JUST LIKE IT DID IN 2016: Hollywood to help turn out Democratic voters.

The Washington-based Democratic Attorneys General Association lobby and two dozen other progressive groups have lined up actors Kyra Sedgwick and Kevin Bacon for an 11th hour voter turnout program.

They’re seeking 1 million volunteers in the weekend before the Nov. 6 elections to knock on doors and urge people to vote.

“We need to come together to devote 1 million hours of volunteer time to make the Big Blue Wave a reality,” said the Democratic Attorneys General Association.

“Be on the right side of history,” Sedgwick said. “Don’t just vote this year, volunteer,” her hubby of 29 years added.

Two old rich people telling you to be on the right side of history.

BLUE WAVE? Forecast: 75% Chance Dems Win House.

Assuming they do take the House, Matthew Continetti explores what happens next: The Agenda That Dare Not Speak Its Name.

Related: New pro-Trump theory: Losing the House this fall will all but guarantee his reelection in 2020.

Winning by subtraction theories are never a good look. In the interim, as Steve likes to say, “My 18-month-old advice to the GOP House still stands: Legislate like there’s no tomorrow, because there might not be one. And if they did, the increase in voter enthusiasm could make all the difference in November.”

(Via the Drudge Report.)

DON’T GET COCKY:  So much for the ‘blue wave’ in Florida.

BLUE WAVE? If Trump’s Voters Turn Out This Fall, They’ll Give Republicans A Big Senate Majority.

In Minnesota, where two Senate seats are in play, both Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, who replaced Al Franken, would face close votes if Minnesota’s smaller-town voters continue as they voted in 2016. Similarly, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, and Claire McCaskill in Missouri would likely lose if those voters come back this year.

Joe Donnelly looks almost certain to lose in Indiana at this point. Bob Casey’s continued career in the Senate appears to depend on his winning back the blue-collar voters who deserted Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Not every election goes by the numbers: incumbency, a willingness to chase after every voter in every village, hamlet, and farm community, and likable personalities can often give a popular incumbent a significant edge in a statewide race. The Midwestern voter shift that was so dramatic in 2016 may prove to be sharply watered-down in the 2018 midterms. However, this is not an excuse for Democrats’ campaigns to relax or become complacent.

Focusing the 2018 statewide elections on Trump may not succeed for Democrats. It certainly killed Hillary’s momentum to devote so much time to her opponent’s weaknesses, because it left so little time to emphasize her own strengths.

Considering her actual “strengths,” what else could she have done?

BLUE WAVE: Democrats Shoveling Loads of Cash into Longshot Races. “Do the Democrats know something the rest of us don’t?”

You know the drill: Less time on the internet, more time volunteering or donating to a vulnerable candidate.

WHY ARE BLUE STATES SUCH CESSPITS OF RACISM? Police chief’s son arrested in brutal attack on elderly Sikh man.

The 18-year-old son of a police chief in California’s Bay Area was arrested Wednesday in connection with an attack on a 71-year-old Sikh man who was out taking his daily stroll.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported that Tyrone Keith McAllister, son of Union City Police Chief Darryl McAllister, was booked on one count of attempted robbery, elder abuse and assault with a deadly weapon, the report said. Police said one of the two suspects seen in surveillance video may have waved a gun.

Sahbit Singh Natt told police that he was walking in Manteca, near Stockton in the Central Valley, at about 6 a.m. Monday and was asked by his assailants for money, the report said.

Authorities said Tyrone McAllister and a 16-year-old confronted the man and kicked him to the ground. Police said the video shows the suspect kick him at least three times.

Too bad the old man didn’t have a gun.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL EDITORIALIZES: The ‘Red Wave’ Illusion: Evidence builds of major GOP losses in November.

Republicans on present trend are poised in November to lose their majority in the House of Representatives and a slew of governorships. That’s the clear message from Tuesday’s election contests and a growing body of evidence. The President’s persona is trumping positive policy results among voters, and without some intervening news or a change in strategy the result is likely to be a national left turn.

Republicans appear to have won a narrow victory in the special House election in Ohio, with provisional and absentee ballots still to be counted. But a win of less than 1% in a heavily Republican district is hardly a show of strength. The Democratic share of the two-party vote surged as it has in every special election this year, while GOP State Senator Troy Balderson was crushed in Franklin County around Columbus by 2 to 1.

The ominous news for Republicans is that they hold about 68 House seats that are less Republican than this Ohio district.

On the other hand: Democrats lead in generic ballot is shrinking. Down to five points this morning – last four polls (three weekly trackers) in a row show it even tighter. IBD/TIPP has a tie.

But nobody knows anything. If you care, the best thing to do is get involved in a swing-state or swing-district race, whether or not it’s where you live.

UPDATE: “Absolutely” a blue Muslim wave coming, says Michigan congressional candidate Rashida Tlaib.

DON’T GET COCKY:  Blue Wave Missing in Action.

HMM: Sean Trende at RCP warns that the November Blue Wave could materialize.

My 18-month-old advice to the GOP House still stands: Legislate like there’s no tomorrow, because there might not be one.

And if they did, the increase in voter enthusiasm could make all the difference in November.

BLUE WAVE? In Deeply Blue New Jersey, an Unexpected Battle for Senate.

Facing a deep-pocketed Republican challenger, a blitz of negative ads and lingering concerns over a lackluster performance in an uncontested primary, Mr. Menendez’s race has started to concern some Democrats. After weathering a criminal indictment and a harsh ethics rebuke from his Senate peers, Mr. Menendez may find himself in a tough enough re-election fight that will force the party to devote money and energy needed in other races critical to the party’s quest to retake Congress.

In theory, Mr. Menendez, 64, should win easily: Registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by nearly 900,000; President Trump remains deeply unpopular; contested congressional races are energizing Democrats; and he has the backing of a Democratic machine that still has enough clout to deliver victory.

But despite the advantages, Mr. Menendez has shown signs of weakened support.

I wonder why that is…

In any case, don’t get cocky.

BLUE WAVE? Trump Driving Both Dem and GOP Leaders in Florida Governor Race. “Immigration, healthcare, the economy and gun control are at the top of voters’ minds going into Florida’s August primary.”

LITERALLY HITLER: Trump gives thumbs up to prison sentencing reform bill at pivotal meeting.

A senior White House official described the president as “positively inclined” toward the compromise proposal. The source said Trump told GOP senators to “do some work with your colleagues” and “let’s see where the Senate is and then come back to me with it.”
“We passed the First Step Act through the House, and we’re working with the Senate to pass that into law. And I think we’ll be able to do it,” Trump said in public comments Wednesday at a meeting with inner city pastors, according to a transcript from the White House.

The compromise offer was presented to Trump at a meeting with Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Tim Scott (R-S.C.).

Jared Kushner, a senior White House adviser and Trump’s son-in-law; Shahira Knight, the new White House legislative affairs director; and White House chief of staff John Kelly also attended the White House meeting.

Attendees described Trump’s support for the initiative as a positive development for the effort to reduce mandatory-minimum prison sentences for nonviolent drug offenders.


Also related: Pastor praises Trump as ‘pro-black’ at prison reform event.

He compared Trump to his predecessor, Barack Obama, the nation’s first African-American president, and said: “This president actually wants to prove something to our community, our faith-based community and our ethnic community.”

“The last president didn’t feel like he had to,” he added, saying of Obama: “He got a pass.”

On oh, so many things.

BLUE WAVE? If Trump is disciplined enough to make the economy his headline, there’s not much Democrats can do to counteract his message. “Democrats were left to grumble about the rich benefiting most, and the mainstream press pointed to farmers hurrying silos of soybeans to China ahead of looming tariffs. But others recognized the seriousness of 4.1 percent growth. The Twitter feeds of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), and potential presidential candidates like Sens. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), were silent on the numbers — apparently operating under the theory that if you don’t have something mean to say, don’t say anything at all.”

Democrats have gone from “It’s the economy, stupid” to “It’s the stupid economy.”

BLUE WAVE? Toss-Up Senate Races Abandoned by Koch Network Feature Unusually Strong Libertarian Party Contenders. “Neck-and-neck races in Indiana and Nevada could determine the balance of the Senate. Both feature Libertarians who have previously cracked 5% yet aren’t being polled.”

Matt Welch:

Nevada’s Tim Hagan, an engineer and longtime Libertarian activist, has on three occasions trounced the point spread in a swing-district state Senate election, earning 5.1 percent of the vote in 2016 (the Democrat won 47.9 percent to 47.0), 4.8 percent in 2008 (46.5–45.8), and 7.6 percent in 2006 (47.6–44.8). Hagan has never dipped below 3 percent in any of the nine elections he has run in, hitting a high of 23.7 percent in a 2014 race for Clark County assessor (in which no Republican ran).

And yet in this crucial swing-state race between vulnerable Republican incumbent Dean Heller and Democratic challenger Jacky Rosen, who the Real Clear Politics polling average separates by less than a percentage point, Hagan is nowhere to be found in six of the seven publicly available polls that have been conducted since he secured the L.P. nomination in early March. Only a Suffolk University survey of 500 likely voters last week included Hagan’s name, showing him with 2.4 percent. (Heller edged Rosen in the poll, 41–40, while 8.6 percent were undecided and 5.4 percent went for none of the above.)

To reiterate a point I made a month ago about the New York gubernatorial race, not listing Hagan as an option constitutes journalistic malpractice.

Handicapping elections is a tricky business, even with much better polling than this. So why, as Matt puts it, the journalistic malpractice?

BLUE WAVE? Texas GOP, Cruz Claim They’re Running Scared: Could O’Rourke Really Win? “Democrat raised more than $10.4 million in the second quarter to fund his race to unseat Ted Cruz, while senator pulled in $4 million.”