June 22, 2009


He comments:

I don’t know if you’ve seen this video, but this is by and large my favorite video of of the Iranian revolt so far. It shows a large mass of people being kept back by riot police throwing tear gas grenades. At some point, a few people begin throwing the grenades back at the police and eventually the entire crowd joins in and rushes the police as they run away in fear!

The coming two to three weeks will be decisive. Will this be a revolution or not? It obviously will not be a bloodless event such as the Orange Revolution, as people have already been murdered in cold blood. The context is completely different. I do believe that, just as the journalist Gongadze was a martyr in the cause of Ukrainian democracy, the slaying of the martyred Neda is a symbol for what the ayatollah regime has represented for thirty years. And, much like Ukraine, the regime has undergone a severe regime split that has been developing for the past few years and is culminating right now. Oftentime the masses can be put down when there is no regime split, but it’s do or die at this point. They have to go full speed ahead because if they don’t overthrow Ahmadinejad, and possibly Khamenei, the defectors will all be shot. What we need to see now is the security forces turning. We’ll know the answers to that in these 2-3 weeks.

I chose this video because it perfectly demonstrates that a government that rules based on fear can be overcome by the people when they are willing to fight it. And even as governments all over the world try to harness technology for repressive means, individuals and informal organizations can stay one step ahead.

I see the biggest challenge to all governments in the beginning of the 21st century is the issue of their own legitimacy — even democratic governments. Albert Einstein said that he did not know with what weapons WWIII will be fought, but WWIV will be fought with sticks and stones. I see WWIV as a general revolt against the legitimacy of most governments worldwide, and in [most] countries where citizens may not own guns, it will be fought with sticks, stones, and proxy servers.

As BT said, prophetically, the revolution will be televised:

The revolution will be fought in all forms of media

The revolution will be fought on phone lines and cable modems and cellphones

The revolution will be a war of attrition, against the great dumbing down of our people.

But in some places, it has to be fought in the streets, too.

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