STRATEGYPAGE ON SYRIA’S BASHAR ASSAD:

The elder Assad’s untimely death put Bashar in command, but not in control, of Syria. His dad’s cronies control most of the bureaucracy, armed forces and security organizations. There is no agreement among all these chiefs about what to do to stay in power. Thus we have the bizarre contrast of Syrian police turning over Saddam’s half-brother and 30 of his henchmen, while Syrian agents facilitate the assassination of a prominent anti-Syrian Lebanese politician, and a suicide bombing inside Israel. All within two weeks. No senior Syrians will admit that no one is completely in control in Syria. It is feared that there may be a coup, as some of the senior generals and security officials push Bashar Assad aside and take over. Bashar is seen by his father’s old timers as too inexperienced. But the problem is that Syria is simply in a very bad situation. Like Iraq, Syria adopted the Baath Party to run the country decades ago. Like Iraq, the socialist dictatorship of the Baath Party led to corruption and economic decline. This has made enemies of Syria’s neighbors, and the Syrian people. The Syrian Baath Party has run out of credit, and credibility. The bill is now due, and no one wants to pay.

I hope the collapse is graceful, rather than deadly. But I certainly hope for the collapse.

UPDATE: Some interesting translations.

ANOTHER UPDATE: More trouble for Assad, from the Arab League. And Russia looks to be jumping ship, too.

MORE: Oh, this is a heartbreaker:

If the European Union follows Israeli recommendations this week and places Hezbollah on a list of official terror organizations, the economic consequences of sanctions would “destroy” the Lebanese terror group, Hezbollah’s leader told Arabic language television.

Heh. But will the EU actually follow through on this?

STILL MORE: The bandwagon continues to roll, with TigerHawk noting this report:

Russia and Germany joined an international chorus of demands for Syria to leave Lebanon, and President Bashar al-Assad was expected to travel to Saudi Arabia on Thursday for talks diplomats said would focus on a pullout.

TigerHawk also observes: “The anti-terror coalition that fractured over Iraq has needed an issue to rally around without offending domestic constituencies or the internationalist media. It is Bashar al-Assad’s enormous misfortune that Syria’s occupation of Lebanon has become that issue.”