SPOILER: IT WON’T BE. The Mediterranean Should Be On Joe Biden’s Mind When He Meets Putin.

There is nothing humanitarian about Putin’s aims in Syria. But as Moscow builds leverage, Biden ends the license for the Delta crescent energy company in northeast Syria, Russian energy companies are poised to gain more control over Syrian oil—and therefore the Kremlin is set to further increase its influence in Syria and therefore the Mediterranean. That Moscow recently deployed nuclear-capable bombers to Syria shows it now has an extra platform it can use as both a tactical tit for tat reaction and on a strategic level as a deterrent to NATO’s southern flank. Biden said that human rights and democracy are a US foreign policy priority. As he meets with Putin, Syria will provide a crucial test of his commitment to this aim.

Nor is Moscow’s messaging limited to Syria. Russia is reportedly preparing to supply Iran with an advanced satellite system–something Russia is now denying–while the two countries signed a visa waiver agreement, To be sure, the two countries discussed simplifying travel requirements at least since last year in what has turned into the best bilateral relationship Russia and Iran have had since Putin’s 2015 Syria intervention. But Iran will also be another topic on the Biden-Putin meeting agenda, and it remains unclear how the Biden team views Russia’s role. It would be a mistake to count on Russia playing a helpful role as Moscow and Tehran remain aligned in their geostrategic goal of pushing the US out of the Middle East, while the Iranian malign regional activity regardless goes far beyond the nuclear file.

Biden will weaken our position in the Middle East at the same time he’s increasing our dependence on Middle East oil.