January 27, 2004

LOOKS LIKE KERRY, followed by Dean, with Edwards third and Clark fourth. This would seem to bode poorly for Clark’s prospects; Dean and Edwards can try to pull a first-place in South Carolina, but where’s Clark? Ahead of Lieberman. (LATER: Now the word is that he’s ahead of Edwards, after all).

But there’s only one candidate that Al Franken is afraid of!

Lots more news at the Command Post election page.

UPDATE: (NOTE that comments are open on this post, at least until they fill up with trolls or penis spam. I know it’s nothing important, like cookware, but if you’ve got anything to add, here’s your chance.)

The Jeff Jarvis summary: “Kerry is winning. Dean’s ‘temperament’ is hurting him. Dean and Edwards are running in the others’ tails. Lieberman is off-camera. Clark keeps the oxygen tent, running head-to-head with Edwards.”

Matthew Yglesias: “It’s interesting how much in the dubious ‘momentum’ sweepstakes hangs on whether John Edwards finishes third or fourth even though we know for sure that neither he nor Clark will win any delegates either way.”

Will Saletan: “[M]aybe Democrats should ask what they’re getting in Kerry. After watching him for a year and seeing him work New Hampshire, here’s my warning: You’re getting a guy who has plenty of selling points but can’t make the sale himself.”

Jacob T. Levy: “But the odd truth about the New Hampshire primary is that it doesn’t pick Presidents anymore. It doesn’t even pick nominees. What it does is put a good scare into the eventual nominee.”

David Adesnik: “My guess is that the subtleties of the Edwards-Clark finish won’t matter much, since both are depending on a strong showing in the South.”

Chip Griffin: “The Kerry team really has beautifully orchestrated this. The Curtain Cam shot on CNN all this time, waiting for Kerry, is priceless.”

Hugh Hewitt: “Dr. Dean is welcome to be my co-host any or all days from now until the 2nd.” I’d take that offer!

Kos: “Dean has enough money to limp on, but by all indications, he’s through. . . . Watch the establishment rally around Kerry to end this thing as quickly as possible. ”

Jack O’Toole: “It’s been almost half a century since the Democratic party has elected a president without a Southern accent. Is that just an electoral fluke? Or does it tell us something important about what it takes for Democrats to win national elections?”

Dave Cullen: “A sizeable plurality would love to have Howard Dean as their president, but they’re convinced that they’re alone, so they have to vote for someone else that they think will appeal to other people.”

Wonkette: “This is our punishment for publishing exit polls. Kerry by double digits! And still Dean’s grimacing that spooky rictus. How much would Dean have to lose by for him to call it a loss?”

Donna Brazile: “I think Edwards is the sleeper. . . . More and more, people are looking at him now as the alternative to Kerry.”

Atrios: “I think people who are writing Dean’s obituary yet again are dead wrong. . . . How long before Clinton won his first primary in 1992? Who was the presumed nominee at this point? A certain Senator from Mass. if I remember correctly.”

Roger Simon: “It’s still bad news for those of us who wanted to see Edwards get a shot, but at least Kerry won’t have to pretend he’s Dean.”

John Ellis: “Back to Sunday’s script! Where did they leave that? Probably at the hotel!”

Armed Liberal: “I’m impressed that Dean could mount such a strong comeback … but then he gets up and makes his speech.”

Andrew Sullivan: “Dean gave arguments. Kerry spoke in packaged Shrumisms. Dean has a vision. Kerry has ambition. If I were a Democrat, I’d vote for Dean over Kerry in a heartbeat.”

Donald Sensing: “Among ‘military households’ (not further defined), Kerry got 35 percent, Dean 26, Clark 15 and Edwards 13 percent. So Kerry the lieutenant pulls more than twice the vote of Clark the general. General, you’ve just been further demoted.”

Oliver Willis: “Huge win for Kerry. Dean’s only around still because he has money, but he may push things down to the wire. Edwards may suddenly be vulnerable in South Carolina. Dead: Clark (had NH to himself and has squat to show for it), Lieberman, Kucinich, Sharpton (all three DOA).”

Kevin Drum: “Presumably Lieberman will now drop out, and for Clark and Edwards the next two weeks in the South and Midwest are make or break.”

Josh Marshall: “Dean said that New Hampshire had ‘allowed our camp to regain its momentum’ and that ‘we did what we needed to do tonight.’ And I think that’s right. But just barely. I think they’re in desperate shape. And I think they know it.”

NOTE: Some people say the comments aren’t working for them. I closed ’em and reopened ’em in the hopes it would help. I had a server outage earlier, and things are still a bit slow on my end, so that may be the problem; beats me. I hope they work now. They’re obviously working for some people.

MORE: People want to know what I think. I pretty much agree with Atrios, actually, at least on how hard this stuff is to predict — at this point in 1992 I thought Clinton was toast. That shows what my predictive ability is like.

With that said, here’s one more: People are still talking (see the comments, and this Jeff Jarvis post) about a “brokered convention.” Although it would be a political junkie’s dream, it won’t happen. This’ll be settled in not much more than a month. And probably sooner.

Meanwhile, if you’re already looking ahead to South Carolina, I’ve got some useful links over at GlennReynolds.com.

And comments are closed now. Sorry — otherwise I’ll forget and they’ll fill up with crap when I’m not paying attention. Very interesting stuff, though! Sorry to those who had problems posting.