September 21, 2020

MEANWHILE, OVER AT VODKAPUNDIT: Wargaming the Electoral College: 5 Scenarios, 3 Startling Finishes.

Four years ago this month, my first and wildest Wargaming the Electoral College scenario in which Donald Trump won, was what I called the “northern route” to a Trump victory through the Rust Belt states.

As it turned out, that’s exactly how Trump did win.

It was a close-run thing, and if the state polls are anything to go by then it’s going to be even tougher for Trump to pull off a second time.

But I don’t buy it.

It isn’t that the polls are necessarily wrong, it’s just that the electorate is going to be much more fluid in a crazy year like 2020.

More than figuring out who people are going to vote for, pollsters have to figure out who is actually going to show up and vote.

I’m not sure anyone has any clue how to determine who the Likely Voters are in a year like 2020.

If I were a pollster, I’d be bald from all the hair-pulling.

That said, we have to start somewhere, so let’s begin as we do every four years with the RealClearPolitics poll averages.

Much more at the link.

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