WOW: European business holds the trump card on Iranian sanctions.

Since the president pulled out of the JCPOA, the EU has been working feverishly behind the scenes to protect the relationship between Europe and Iran, including publicly calling for a special purpose vehicle to help businesses avoid American sanctions, and the implementation of a blocking statute also intended to protect European businesses. The EU goal is to continue with the Iran deal alone, without the U.S., by creating a financial channel between their central banks with the Central Bank of Iran. The Trump administration has made it clear, however, that they will compel the Europeans to comply with the new sanctions— either by carrot or by stick.

This means one more rift in the transatlantic alliance. But for the Trump administration, a new and unexpected ally has emerged: European business. The American ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, has made pressuring Germany on Iranian sanctions his signature issue. While European governments were making heated announcements about their opposition to the American sanctions, major German companies began announcements of their own: They are leaving Iran, ceasing projects, ceasing to sell auto parts, etc. From the perspective of a corporate CEO, the decision is clear. On the question of doing business in the U.S. or Iran, they choose the American market. In fact, these same CEOs have reportedly made it clear to Ambassador Grenell that not only will they comply with sanctions, but in fact they are not supportive of the EU government’s talk of evading said sanctions.

It’s great to have European businesses coming on board, but this mess proves that Obama and Kerry lied about sanctions ever “snapping back.”