I’M IN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL WRITING ABOUT TENNESSEE REGIONALISM AND THE BREDESEN/BLACKBURN RACE.. Excerpt:

The three regions are enshrined in the state constitution. East Tennessee extends from North Carolina to the Cumberland Mountains. Middle Tennessee covers the Nashville Basin from the Cumberlands to the western part of the Tennessee River. West Tennessee goes from there to the Mississippi. These divisions have real consequences: The constitution provides that no more than two of the five justices on the Tennessee Supreme Court can come from the same grand division, and signs at the state line once welcomed visitors to “the 3 states of Tennessee.” More important, they also reflect significant cultural and historical differences.

East Tennessee, which never had many slaves, was pro-Union during the Civil War and would have seceded from the Confederacy like West Virginia if it could have. Its population, mostly descended from small farmers and mountain dwellers, has a distinctive political history. Before the U.S. was founded, settlers in East Tennessee operated under their own constitution, the Watauga Compact. Later, East Tennessee was briefly the aspirational state of Franklin.

Middle and West Tennessee are much more traditionally Southern. Until recently East Tennessee, with about 40% of the state’s population, was heavily Republican while the other two divisions were Southern Democratic territory. Now the whole state has gone red, apart from its core urban enclaves. Still, differences remain. Historically, most of Tennessee’s Republican politicians came from East Tennessee. And they were typically down-home, folksy deal-makers—Sens. Howard Baker Jr., Lamar Alexander and Mr. Corker.

Mrs. Blackburn is in a different mold: Less folksy, more flashy. She’s running not as a deal maker but as a disrupter. She stands for building the wall and crushing Mr. Trump’s “deep state” opposition. On substance, Tennesseans agree with these things. But on style, her fit in East Tennessee is less than perfect. Mr. Bredesen’s down-home commercials and low-key speaking style are a better fit, even if the policies he’d support aren’t.

It doesn’t help that Mrs. Blackburn hasn’t spent as much time in East Tennessee over the past several years as she might have, partly due to the demands of her congressional seat. It’s not an accident that when Donald Trump and Mike Pence came to the Volunteer State in recent weeks, they both stopped in East Tennessee to gin up enthusiasm.

Mr. Bredesen has had his share of miscues. He touted a 16-year-old “A” rating from the National Rifle Association only to have the NRA indignantly point out that his current rating is a “D.” He indulged in an extended equivocation on the Kavanaugh nomination before ultimately announcing that, were he a senator, he would vote “yes.”

The Kavanaugh confirmation may end up saving Mrs. Blackburn’s candidacy. Tennesseans have a strong sense of fairness, and—as befits the region’s Scots-Irish character—a strong regard for matters of character and reputation. The Kavanaugh circus looked like Washington politics at its worst, and that seems to be helping Mrs. Blackburn, who’s running ads tying Mr. Bredesen to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. In 2018 this may be enough to overcome her other weakness.

If Mrs. Blackburn wins, it will be a case of national issues outweighing local culture. And that will be fine with Mrs. Blackburn, and Mr. Trump.

The latest polls look good for her, and the swing since Kavanaugh is amazing.