ALLAHPUNDIT HAS A HUNCH: It’ll Be Barrett For SCOTUS.

As for why Barrett over Kavanaugh or Kethledge, Trump’s instinct when told that he can’t do something is to do it. And Barrett is the one pick more than any other about whom he’s being told “You can’t do that!” She’s too pro-life! Collins and Murkowski will walk! Official Washington much prefers Kavanaugh or Kethledge! I think Trump processes advice like that in terms of “You don’t have the balls to do this.” It’s like waving a red cape in front of a bull. More than that, though, Barrett is very clearly the choice that’ll make his base happiest and galvanize them for a big chair-throwing culture-war brawl with the left. Kethledge is getting knocked by the right for his immigration votes, Kavanaugh is getting bashed for being a Bushie, but Barrett seems to be viewed as some sort of conquering white knight of social conservatism. I think that’s foolhardy: She’s far less of a known quantity as a judge than Kavanaugh or Kethledge are and might well disappoint conservatives in all sorts of ways over the next 40 years on the Court. (Although, crucially, probably not on abortion.) It’d be wiser to give her five years on the bench and then see where things stand.

But Republicans don’t necessarily have five years to play with. By far the stupidest argument in support of passing over Barrett this time is that Trump can save her for the eventual Ginsburg vacancy. Trump may be out of office in as little as two and a half years, though. There’s every reason to think Ginsburg can hang on until then. And if she does, it might plausibly be another full decade before a Republican president gets to fill a Court seat.

We’ll know soon enough.