June 21, 2018

MINNESOTA DREAMIN’: Trump Stakes Claim On State With Longest Dem Winning Streak.

Can Trump win Minnesota in 2020? I wouldn’t necessarily bet against it, but let’s remember the confluence of circumstances that brought him within 1.5 points of victory in 2016. Hillary Clinton was a uniquely poor campaigner, one who not only focused nearly entirely on her own entitlement to the job but also went out of her way to insult millions of voters. On top of that, rather than learn from Barack Obama’s groundbreaking grassroots campaigns, she ended up running the Mitt Romney 30,000-foot messaging strategy and ignored any data outside their own constructs.

It’s possible that Democrats could find a worse candidate, or an equally bad one, to run against Trump in 2020. I wouldn’t bet against that either, but the odds aren’t terribly good for that outcome. If Democrats run a reasonably competent candidate that doesn’t go out of his/her way to insult people outside the urban-core power base of their party, then Minnesota might be a long shot — and for that matter, so might Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It becomes a matter of prioritization again, and it seems foolish to bet on a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to statewide office in a dozen years.

That may be what Trump hopes to change by coming to Duluth, however.

We’ll see. While the economy is strong, it makes sense to stay on the offensive.

On a side note, Reagan could possibly have won Minnesota in 1984 if he’d tried. My impression however is that he wanted to leave George Washington as the only President to sweep every state elector.

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