HMM: Clouds form over Iran deal as Trump deadline nears.

It was Trump’s choice of John Bolton as his incoming national security advisor that Iran deal supporters have seen as the biggest death knell for the deal.

Bolton penned an op-ed while the deal was being negotiated that was bluntly titled, “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran.” He also encouraged Trump to “abrogate the Iran nuclear deal in his first days in office” last year.

Tillerson may have been hoping for a framework agreement with the Europeans that would allow Trump to save face without killing the deal, experts said, but Pompeo and Bolton are unlikely to accept something that’s mostly symbolic.

“The views of Bolton and Pompeo matter quite a bit” to the success or failure of the European negotiations, Taleblu said. “I don’t think both of them will settle for anything that’s just crossing Ts and dotting Is.”

Before Obama’s 2015 deal, Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons but hemmed in by sanctions — and was believed to be at the “breaking point” as recently as 2014. Under the deal, Iran is still pursuing nuclear weapons (at a slightly slower pace), but is far less hindered by sanctions.

The real trick is whether Trump can pull the Europeans along on a new and meaningful sanctions regime.