HMM: Eyes on 2018 as 3rd House Republican Says He’ll Retire.

The decision by Rep. Dave Trott of Michigan followed retirement announcements last week by Reps. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania and Dave Reichert of Washington, three members Democrats planned to try to unseat next year. Though all would have been difficult incumbents to unseat, the districts are likely to be much more competitive for Democrats as open races. Several nonpartisan handicappers immediately switched Trott’s district to a “toss up” after his announcement.

Though the trio of retirements hasn’t invited panic among Republicans, it could be a warning sign of a tough political environment facing GOP lawmakers next year. On average, the party in power tends to lose seats in a president’s first midterm election, and Republicans worry that struggling to accomplish their agenda on Capitol Hill and the tumult of President Trump’s first year leave them vulnerable in 2018.

“It’s clear the political environment is trending away from Republicans; the question is, to what extent?” said GOP consultant Ken Spain, who ran communications for the National Republican Congressional Committee during the 2010 cycle. “The next six months are going to tell the story.”

On the Senate side, even Tennessee Republican Bob Corker is “unsure about running for reelection.”

Perhaps if this Congress were delivering on the promises they made to the constituents who put them in office, they’d be reading the tea leaves differently.