OUTLOOK NOT SO GOOD: Can China Actually Restrain Kim Jong-Un?

As part of upholding a UN Security Council resolution, China announced in late February that it would no longer receive coal imports from North Korea. Over the course of March and April, China eliminated North Korean coal imports, depriving the North Korean regime of foreign currency. In 2016, these exports generated nearly $1.6 billion for North Korea and accounted for 40 percent of its trade revenue.

While China has upheld its commitment to the coal ban, it has purchased greater quantities of iron ore, low-end manufactured goods, and seafood – goods not strictly banned by the UN – resulting in an overall increase in trade revenue for North Korea compared to 2016. While this demonstrates commitment to UN-enforced international sanctions, it does not contribute to the ultimate goal of sustained economic pressure on the North Korean regime.

Beijing may also be dissuading Chinese businesses from contracting North Korean labor, a practice the UN identifies as exploitative, and it estimates 50,000 workers worldwide may generate as much as $1.5 billion for the state. As many as 19,000 of these workers are in China. According to the Nikkei Asian Review, beginning in March of last year, Chinese officials began informally telling firms in the provinces bordering North Korea not to contract North Korean workers. While this measure is useful to Beijing for registering “its displeasure with Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear testing,” as an informal policy, it could be easily reversed and does not demonstrate a strong commitment to the sustained pressure needed to demonstrate cooperation to the U.S. and to bring North Korea back to negotiations.

So despite public appearances, it’s really “Can but won’t.”