RICHARD FERNANDEZ: Putin Is Bust, So Who Won The Pot?

If Putin is the world’s puppet master he’s not doing very well. Russia’s economy has been in crisis since 2014, with no end in sight. The Kremlin has been in the doldrums for two reasons: the continued decline in oil prices and economic sanctions imposed on Moscow for its incursions into Ukraine.

Trends have worsened rather than gotten better. Initial hopes the Trump administration would cut Russia some slack were dashed. “Enormous amounts of money have flowed in and out of Russia over the past several months as oil prices and U.S. policies turned from favorable to seemingly unfavorable”. . . .

Russia is facing a tough Nikki Haley in the UN, something that has left the New York Times baffled. ” In recent weeks, Ms. Haley has condemned what she called Russia’s “aggressive actions” in eastern Ukraine, vowed to maintain sanctions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea and, in her Senate confirmation hearing, went as far as saying that Russia was guilty of war crimes in Syria.” . . .

But the rhetoric is matched by actions on the ground. US troops arrived in Syria to support the impending assault on Raqqa. After an extended retreat before the Kremlin in the Middle East America is re-asserting itself again.

Worse the administration has been exhorting its European allies to spend more money on NATO. Though Trump’s urgings were mocked by politicians who point out the Euros spend on “UN peacekeeping missions, into our European missions and into our contribution to the fight against IS terrorism” it nevertheless amounts to a call to arm against Russia.

It is reasonable to suppose that puppetmaster Putin would prefer 1) less US oil production; 2) lower American defense spending; 3) a free hand in Syria; 4) lifting of sanctions but there is precious little evidence he is getting any of it. On the contrary Putin is doomed if current trends continue.

If Putin robbed the bank where’s the money? The problem with the Russian hacking stories now roiling Washington is demonstrating how any of it worked to the Kremlin’s advantage. A proper conspiracy theory involving a foreign power in the last election should at least consider China, not just Russia, as a suspect. The Chinese at least would have benefited from cheap oil. Yet even here there are problems.

But without conspiracy theories, Democrats would have to face reality, and that’s still too painful. Alternatively (or additionally) it may be that all this Russia-talk is there to distract from actual foreign-government influence in DC, as Fernandez suggests. But from whom?