250,000 MORE PEOPLE COULD FLEE MOSUL: That’s the AFP headline, quoting UN sources. But the report adds the refugees would be “escaping” combat in the city. So this is good news, as long as Iraq and its allies have prepared for the refugee surge. Limiting civilian casualties has been one of the Iraqi government’s major political objectives since it began retaking cities held by the Islamic State. The goal was liberating Iraqi citizens, not killing them. That’s why ISIS places “human shields” (hostages) around key defensive positions. It’s a war crime but the Islamic State is a criminal organization.

ISIS fighters could hide in a civilian refugee surge. Fewer civilians in western Mosul should make it a bit easier to use the coalition’s firepower advantage — artillery and air strikes. However, the Islamic State will still have hostages. How many ISIS fighters remain in western Mosul? 3,000 to 5,000 seems to be the common estimate.