STEVEN HAYWARD: The Economy: Don’t Look Now, But . . . “I have no idea where the economy if heading, but when everyone is saying that there’s no recession on the horizon is precisely the time to expect a recession—or something worse. Another black swan of some kind. Every Republican presidential campaign ought to be ready for a sudden economic shock such as occurred in September 2008, which, recall, caught John McCain flatfooted. Up to that point he was even or slightly ahead of Obama in most polls.”