September 20, 2012

UNEXPECTEDLY! More Americans Than Forecast Filed Jobless Claims Last Week. “Jobless claims decreased by 3,000 in the week ended Sept. 15 to 382,000, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected 375,000.” And if history is any guide, they’ll be revised upward next week.

UPDATE: More: “Today’s initial claims print was the 5th week out of 6 in which expectations missed: instead of coming in at the consensus number of 375K, down from last week’s 382K, the BLS reported a miss to expectations of 7K, resulting in a seasonally adjusted number of 382K, or what is now once again secular shift higher. But, wait big miss was actually good news: why? Because the ever data-massaging BLS was kind enough to revise last week’s print upward (for the 86th week in a row) from 382K to 385K (just as we predicted last week) which in turn led to such farcical headlines as U.S. weekly jobless claims drop slightly to 382,000 from the WSJ.” Yeah, this pattern with the revisions is so consistent, it’s almost suspicious. Note the damning graph on headlines vs. revisions at the link.

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