June 13, 2012

ANDREW MALCOLM: Obama’s 2008 base is cracking: Gallup.

President Obama today is — what else? — fundraising again.

But while he’s out, Gallup released a seriously ominous poll for the Democrat’s chances of keeping his extended family in the White House for four more years.

Gallup finds a deep crack in Obama support emerging among whites, still statistically by far the largest group of voters. His support among several white subgroups is down 5% now among registered voters from what it was just before the 2008 election, when he easily defeated John McCain.

These sub-sets of non-Hispanic whites include young registered voters between 18 and 29, which provided him a huge margin four years ago, well-educated women and non-religious whites, among others. Other research has shown huge percentages of Obama’s money donors from 2008 withholding their money this time.

Obama’s support among registered voters today is 46%, five points below what it was nearly four years ago. Whites’ support is down slightly more, six points, from 44% to 38%.

Obama’s support among blacks, while still overwhelming, has also dipped four points from 91% to 87%.

So is it up anywhere?

UPDATE: Related thoughts: “One out of five Black Americans in a state where the president won 95% of the Black vote the last time around have explicitly told strangers they will not support the first black president for re-election and they have expressed that decision in a public poll.”

Good observation, kid. Don’t get cocky.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Reader Jeff Dobbs is deeply troubled:

Yike.

I now am casting a leery eye on my North Carolina neighbors and co-workers and fellow congregants. People I pass on the street, persons in vehicles driving next to me. In the supermarket, at the movies, in restaurants, at the mall. And Lord knows the bars. Especially in the bars.

If it hadn’t been pounded so relentlessly in the media for four years now I wouldn’t believe it.

I still have trouble believing it. These people kept it so well hidden up to this point. It’s frightening.

But I know the media would never lie to me, so the only available conclusion is that 1 in 5 black North Carolinians oppose Obama because they’re racists, straight up.

A chilling realization.

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