On Sunday afternoon, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) shared an unsettling analysis of the 2020 election results that raises serious questions about statistical anomalies and four particularly suspicious “data dumps” in the key swing states of Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
“Interesting . . . Trump margin of ‘defeat’ in 4 states occurred in 4 data dumps between 1:34-6:31 AM. Statistical anomaly? Fraud? Look at the evidence and decide for yourself,” Paul tweeted.
He added a jab at Big Tech censorship: “That is, if Big Tech allows u to read this.”
Interesting . . . Trump margin of “defeat” in 4 states occurred in 4 data dumps between 1:34-6:31 AM. Statistical anomaly? Fraud? Look at the evidence and decide for yourself.(That is, if Big Tech allows u to read this)
Anomalies in Vote Counts; https://t.co/DgBlYj9zUP
— Senator Rand Paul (@RandPaul) November 29, 2020
Paul shared an anonymous report that claims to have investigated 8,954 updates to the vote totals in all 50 states and finds that four of the updates “are profoundly anomalous; they deviate from a pattern which is otherwise found in the vast majority of the remaining 8,950 vote updates.”
The report identifies four specific data dumps that fall outside the realm of probability. “The basic intuition is: big margins are one thing, and so are super-skewed results, but it’s weird to have them both at the same time, as they generally become inversely related as either value increases,” the report argues.
“Of the seven vote updates which follow the pattern the least, four individual vote updates — two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin, and one in Georgia — were particularly anomalous and influential with respect to this property and all occurred within the same five hour window,” the report claims (emphasis original). “The anomalous behavior of these updates is particularly extreme. That is, these vote updates are outliers of the outliers.”
The four updates in question (coming early on November 4, 2020) are: a 6:31 a.m. Eastern update in Michigan with 141,258 Joe Biden votes and 5,968 Donald Trump votes; a 3:42 a.m. Central update in Wisconsin with 143,379 Biden votes and 25,163 Trump votes; a 1:34 a.m. Eastern update in Georgia with 136,155 Biden votes and 29,115 Trump votes; and a 3:50 a.m. Eastern update in Michigan with 54,497 Biden votes and 4,718 Trump votes.
Without these updates, Biden would have lost the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, giving him 42 fewer votes in the Electoral College and costing him the presidency.
The report does not claim that these anomalies constitute proof that Biden lost, however. Rather, it claims the anomalies “merit further investigation.” Biden may still have won and there may be another explanation for these extreme outlier results, but the data dumps do look extremely suspicious.
While these data dumps look fishy, it is important to keep in mind that Biden encouraged voters to vote by mail while Trump encouraged voters to vote in person. The late tabulation of mail-in votes led to a likely “red mirage” situation, where Trump seemed to lead in the early results while Biden overtook him — even if no fraud was involved.
It is also important to note that these data dumps took place in blue counties where results were expected to skew toward Biden. Even if fraud took place and the votes were manipulated to skew far more than they truly did, that would not reverse the results to give Trump Biden’s 141,258 votes in the 6:31 a.m. Michigan update, for example.
With all those caveats considered, the anomalies are suspicious, and Paul merely raised questions about them.
Even so, many on the Left rushed to demonize him. Actor Tom Arnold, who has previously leveled a death threat against Donald Trump Jr., suggested that the neighbor who sucker-punched Paul, breaking ribs and triggering pneumonia, had “tried to save America.” Arnold had also previously claimed that the neighbor was in the right to attack the senator.
Rand Paul’s neighbor tried to save America.
— Tom Arnold (@TomArnold) November 30, 2020
Even if Sen. Paul was entirely off-base about the data dump anomalies, that does not justify this kind of disgusting rhetoric.
Joe Biden likely did win the 2020 election, but it is important for the integrity of American elections to investigate anomalies and fraud concerns.
Tyler O’Neil is the author of Making Hate Pay: The Corruption of the Southern Poverty Law Center. Follow him on Twitter at @Tyler2ONeil.