On Wednesday afternoon, Trump campaign representatives told reporters that they are still confident the president will win the election despite sporadic race calls for Joe Biden in Arizona and Wisconsin. The campaign has formally requested a recount in Wisconsin and predicted that a trove of Election Day results will put Trump over in Arizona. Trump campaign Senior Advisor Jason Miller demanded that Fox News and the Associated Press rescind race calls for Arizona.
“We call on both Fox News and the Associated Press to immediately withdraw their calling the state for Joe Biden. This was erroneous, it was a mistake,” Miller declared.
He noted that Biden is only ahead of Trump by 93,509 votes in the Grand Canyon State, while there are approximately 605,000 outstanding ballots that have yet to come in, most of them being Election Day votes. The president only needs to win 57.73 percent of the remaining ballots in order to erase Biden’s lead.
“This is far less than what the president has been receiving,” Miller noted. He referenced a recent ballot dump from Maricopa County in which Trump won 62 percent of those ballots. He referenced rural areas of Arizona where Trump received more than 70 percent, sometimes as high as 80 percent, of the vote.
Bill Stepien, Trump’s campaign manager, announced that the campaign had filed for a recount in Wisconsin, citing “abnormalities on the ground.” He said the campaign rightly predicted “a close race, a razor-thin race” in the Badger State.
Stepien also predicted a Trump win in Pennsylvania. He noted that the president leads with about 454,000 votes over Biden as of Wednesday afternoon and predicted about 1.12 million votes still outstanding.
“For Joe Biden to get to a margin ahead of President Trump, he would need to win 78 percent of those remaining votes,” the campaign manager explained. While some counties that are expected to go heavily for Biden still have outstanding results — Philadelphia County and Montgomery County, in particular — Stepien also noted that there are more votes coming in from “Trump country.” He also noted that the president has overperformed compared to his win in 2016.
“We have a high degree of confidence … this is not based on gut or feel, this is based on math,” Stepien insisted. He also predicted that the margin will not be close. He said there is a 70 percent probability of a win margin larger than 100,000 votes, and a 50 percent probability of a win margin larger than 150,000 votes.
In order to predict such outcomes, the campaign has been “drilling down in a lot of detail,” the manager said. He noted that polls showed Trump down by 17 points in Wisconsin, but the campaign predicted a close race. “It turns out, we were right. We have confidence in our data that shows a pathway forward in Pennsylvania.”
Earlier on Wednesday, the Trump campaign filed a lawsuit in Michigan, claiming the campaign has been denied access to observe the opening of ballots and the counting process.
Miller said the campaign is “completely confident that the president will win Noth Carolina and Georgia.” He predicted that America will know that Trump won the election on Friday.
“We could be looking at potentially as soon as Friday, President Trump being declared the winner,” Miller said. “By the end of this week, it will be clear to the entire nation that President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence will have another four years in the White House.”
Tyler O’Neil is the author of Making Hate Pay: The Corruption of the Southern Poverty Law Center. Follow him on Twitter at @Tyler2ONeil.