In a blockbuster press call on Monday, the campaign to reelect President Donald Trump went through its internal numbers explaining why Democrats are panicking in the lead-up to Election Day. If the campaign’s numbers are accurate, President Trump will win in most of the swing states.
“Election day is going to look like a Trump rally,” Nick Trainer, the campaign’s director of battleground strategy said on the press call.
“Democrat are really panicking because Joe Biden hasn’t run up a large enough lead” in absentee ballots and mail-in ballots in order to counter the expected Trump turnout on Election Day, Deputy Campaign Manager Justin Clark said. “They know that Trump’s margin on Election Day will make up the difference for victory.”
Therefore, Democrats are working to delegitimize the Election Day results as a “red mirage,” claiming that postal delays with mail-in ballots are giving a false impression of a Trump victory. “None of this will be true,” Clark argued.
“Make no mistake, this isn’t about time, this isn’t about having patience… it’s about getting states to count illegal late ballots to steal victory from Donald Trump,” he warned.
Democrats “fielded a candidate in Joe Biden who has not energized his base… they haven’t built a ground game.”
Turning to the numbers, Trainer cited Biden Campaign Manager Jen O’Malley Dillon, who warned last month that “this race is far closer” than people think.
Trainer predicted specific margins of victory in various battleground states based on the partisan make-up of voters.
He began with Ohio, where the partisan makeup was Democrats plus-10 percent a few weeks back. He said the current number is Democrats plus-0.6 percent. In 2016, it was Democrats plus-2.6 percent. Trump won Ohio by 400,000 votes and 8 points, 52 percent to 44 percent. He predicted Trump would win Ohio on Tuesday by 400,000 votes.
In North Carolina, Democrats at one point reached plus-32 percent, but now the partisan make-up is down to plus-5.8 percent. On Election Day in 2016, it was Democrats plus-9.7 percent. Trump won North Carolina by almost 4 points and more than 100,000 votes in 2016. Trainer predicted he would win the state by 400,000 votes on Tuesday.
In Pennsylvania, Trainer said Democrats “have banked a ton of high-propensity voters by mail,” but Trump has “millions of voters left” for Election Day. He predicted an Election Day votes cast margin of over a million votes.
In Arizona, the Democratic partisan make-up reached plus-11.9 percent, but on Monday it was plus-1.2 percent. On Election Day in 2016, it was plus-2.5 percent. Trump won Arizona by 90,000 votes and 3.5 percentage points. Trainer predicted he would win the state by 150,000 votes on Tuesday.
In Florida, Democrats rose to a plus-18.8 percent advantage, but on Monday that number dropped to plus-1 percent. On Election Day 2016, it was plus-1.4 percent. Trump won Florida in 2016 by just over 100,000 votes, 1 percentage point. Trainer predicted a 500,000 margin for Trump on Tuesday.
In Wisconsin, Democrats rose to plus-12.3 percent earlier in the voting, but on Monday they held a plus-5.9 percent advantage. On Election Day in 2016, it was plus-9.6 percent. Trump won Wisconsin by 20,000 votes and 0.8 percentage points. Trainer predicted Trump will win by over 100,000 votes on Tuesday.
In Nevada, Democrats rose to plus-37 percent, but by Monday they had fallen to plus-5 percent. On Election Day 2016, the number was plus-7.9 percent. Clinton won Nevada by 27,000 votes and more than 2 percentage points. Trainer predicted Trump will win Nevada on Tuesday by 400,000 votes.
Trainer and Clark said they were confident that the president would prevail in Election Day voting, but they said that the Democrats will push the “red mirage” disinformation in order to pursue ballot shenanigans to effectively overturn the will of the voters.
Tyler O’Neil is the author of Making Hate Pay: The Corruption of the Southern Poverty Law Center. Follow him on Twitter at @Tyler2ONeil.