I am calling it a night. Utah has been called for Cruz, Idaho has been called for Sanders. It looks very likely Cruz will win Utah with the 50+ percent he needs to sweep the state’s 40 delegates.
Even so, Cruz will still have 18 fewer delegates than Trump, just from tonight’s victories. The Texas senator needs more than 80 percent of the remaining delegates in order to win outright — this is becoming numerically impossible. Stopping Trump is the name of the game, and even that may not be as easy as previously thought.
As for the Democrats, Sanders won two states to Clinton’s one, but rumors are that Clinton will still win more delegates for the night. Sanders has the same problem Cruz faces — how do you rack up delegates to match a frontrunner when many races are proportional, and when the momentum is against you?
One good thing about the Republican race is that Trump can be stopped. The bad news is that, since he’ll likely still lead in the delegate count going into the convention, he will still be the favorite no matter how well Cruz does going forward. For those of you dreaming about a Paul Ryan candidacy, or another establishment savior to come in on a white horse, I will warn you to sober up. Trump and Cruz will still enter the convention as the main contenders, and it would be foolish of the party to foist upon the voters someone they have not had the opportunity to vote for.
Updated Utah numbers, 24 percent reporting:
Cruz — 70.7 percent. Kasich — 16.0 percent. Trump — 13.3 percent.
Make no mistake, this is a Cruz blow-out. Not only did he break the 50 percent threshold, he has set a new record for this race. It’s truly a pity that Cruz’s 70 percent won’t win him as many delegates as Trump’s 47 percent in Arizona. But that’s the game.
This is great! Just substitute the names Trump and Cruz for Clinton and Sanders, respectively.
— AJ+ (@ajplus) March 23, 2016
Utah is still not called for Cruz — they’re still only at 3 percent reporting.
Up to 50 percent reporting in Arizona:
Trump — 46.6 percent. Cruz — 23.3 percentKasich — 10.0 percent.
This is the sentiment in the Sanders camp.
— Siddharth Bhandari (@sidgub) March 23, 2016
This is also true, although Trump still won more delegates tonight than Cruz will.
Bernie Sanders predicted it right — he won Utah.
— CNN (@CNN) March 23, 2016
But his supporters are not accepting the loss in Arizona.
3 percent reporting from Utah, and it looks like Cruz has broken the 50 percent threshold:
Cruz — 58.8 percent. Kasich — 22.0 percent. Trump — 19.2 percent.
And the AP calls Utah for Sanders.
— The Associated Press (@AP) March 23, 2016
1:31 a.m. Unofficially, Sanders wins Utah Caucus in a blowout.
Unofficial results from tonight’s caucus. Bernie Sanders 986 Hillary Clinton 240 Almost 1,300 votes cast. — Tooele County Dems (@TooeleDems) March 23, 2016
And Ted Cruz’s campaign manager predicts Cruz will sweep the delegates in Utah.
We will get 50%+ in Utah and all 40 delegates. #baberuth
— Jeff Roe (@jeffroe) March 23, 2016
1:03 a.m. Not everyone is happy with the #Western Tuesday results in Arizona.
And here’s the main point. After Arizona, Trump is on track for 1,237.
#westerntuesday not really a Trump fan but I don’t see how he does not get to 1237
— james patterson (@rebelhell50) March 23, 2016
12:55 a.m. Here are the chances Sanders and Cruz have of winning the Utah Caucuses.
The Dems are fighting it out in Idaho tonight, too.
— Lacey Darrow (@LaceyDarrow) March 23, 2016
12:46 a.m. Cruz may have lost Arizona, but preliminary results suggest a big win in the Utah Caucuses.
And here’s the Dem primary map so far.
— (•◡•) HillBro (@HillBroYo) March 23, 2016
12:37 a.m. This is the thing that makes no sense.
10,000 people cast votes for candidates who were out for since South Carolina, and before AZ Early Vote started. — Marcus Hawkins (@HawkinsUSA) March 23, 2016
Carly Fiorina, who dropped out on February 10, received 1,095 votes so far. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush dropped out on February 20, and has at least 3,835 votes in Arizona. Even the Early vote cannot explain this. 12:25 a.m. Now that’s what it feels like to be disenfranchised.
Just heard from an acquaintance who said it took him 4 hrs to vote today, both primaries were decided before he even got his ballot in hand
— Jeremy Duda (@jeremyduda) March 23, 2016
And this is a late night all around.
12:07 a.m. Memo to Cruz backers blaming Rubio — it wouldn’t have been enough.
Trump is leading Rubio and Cruz 47-38% so far. Cruz would have needed 175% of Rubio’s backers for this to fly… https://t.co/Uwc2JT2fGO
— Marcus Hawkins (@HawkinsUSA) March 23, 2016
Also, to preempt those who will blame early voting for Cruz’s loss:
11:37 p.m. Trump and Clinton have their victory tweets.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 23, 2016
Meanwhile, “o god” is trending on Twitter. 11:35 p.m. So, Rubio drops out, and still beats John Kasich.
Kasich could lose to Rubio. 20,000 votes behind so far! https://t.co/dNyGKIl2Nr
— Marcus Hawkins (@HawkinsUSA) March 23, 2016
And the Green Party results are also settled.
In case you were wondering, Jill Stein crushing Green Party primary in AZ, beating Kent Mesplay 81-19 (246 votes to 59) — Jeremy Duda (@jeremyduda) March 23, 2016
11:29 p.m. The AP calls Arizona for Clinton.
— AP Politics (@AP_Politics) March 23, 2016
Arizona Secretary of State numbers, 29.67 percent reporting: Trump — 47 percent. Cruz — 21 percent. Rubio — 17 percent. Kasich — 10 percent. 11:19 p.m. Results coming in, some people still waiting hours to vote.
The Associated Press called the Arizona race for Trump.
11:15 p.m. Unofficial numbers from Arizona government website, 26.87 percent reporting: Trump — 47 percent. Cruz — 20 percent. Rubio — 17 percent. Kasich — 10 percent. Tiny inkling of first Dem results also in.
11:11 p.m. Gross bribery.
Rubio and Carson still taking votes from Cruz, even after dropping out.
1st numbers in from early ballots: Trump 53%, Cruz 19, Rubio 15, Kasich 6, Carson 4. Early ballots went out before some candidates dropped. — Jeremy Duda (@jeremyduda) March 23, 2016
11:07 p.m. While we’re on the subject of wives, here’s Mitt Romney’s masterful dig.
And this is the thing that really ticks Democrat voters off.
11:01 p.m. Utahns can claim they stood in line for hours, in the snow, to vote for or against Trump, Cruz, Clinton, Sanders.
Results forthcoming in AZ.
10:57 p.m. It seems like some members of the Arizona establishment wanted news reports to announce long lines, for record turnout. Well, it worked…
And this is just incompetence.
I’m sympathetic to the pressures officials are under, but no excuse for not having tons of extra ballots. You can recycle the paper. — Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) March 23, 2016
10:54 p.m. Welcome to national news — in the presidential race.
Not sure about this claim.
10:40 p.m. So, about getting those election results tonight…
And THAT’s where the exit poll information went.
Conducted some super secret exit polls in Arizona today. Results are super secret. That is all. — Mike Nelson (@mikeinarizona) March 23, 2016
10:33 p.m. Oh snap! Shots fired back. Well done, Ted.
Truer words have never been tweeted.
A major international terrorist attack this morning. Two states now voting. GOP candidates are threatening, defending wives. Your 2016 race! — Matt Viser (@mviser) March 23, 2016
10:26 p.m. Here’s the evidence of societal degradation. Case closed.
And this is great.
10:22 p.m. No exit polls! There’s so much sadness going on right now.
No exit polls in AZ or UT tonight, so I intend to just tweet “WOAH” and a link to a Rick Astley video from time to time. — daveweigel (@daveweigel) March 22, 2016
Or wait — preliminary exit polls say Arizonans are stupid?
According to CNN AZ Exit polls, Donald Trump won 50% of GOP voters for whom terrorism is top issue. Or: 50% of AZ GOP voters are stupid. — Leon Wolf (@LeonHWolf) March 23, 2016
And Republicans would desert Trump in a Trump-Clinton showdown, or so they tell exit pollsters.
10:16 p.m. Check out the beautiful mountains those Utah voters get to look at as they stand in line.
These people must be downright sad they have to be inside.
10:07 p.m. The struggle is real! It’s getting dark as these poor citizens go to vote.
But there’s more!
10:04 p.m. Polls are closed in Arizona! Here’s Trump’s non-deleted Melania response tweet:
Lyin’ Ted Cruz just used a picture of Melania from a G.Q. shoot in his ad. Be careful, Lyin’ Ted, or I will spill the beans on your wife! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 23, 2016
Huge turnout in Dem Utah Caucus.
9:59 p.m. Even in Utah (where Cruz needs to win over 50 percent to take the delegates and push Trump back), some will not be co-opted into “strategy votes.”
And Trump went there.
9:56 p.m. Will large turnout help Cruz and Sanders in Arizona?
Running out of ballots. When will the parties learn for this year?
9:50 p.m. “Kicking myself.”
Consolation for the long wait in Arizona. Washington, D.C. voters had no such luck.
For everyone who waited 2-3 hrs in line to vote today, look on the bright side. At least AZ actually matters in the prez primary this time. — Jeremy Duda (@jeremyduda) March 23, 2016
9:45 p.m. WaPo’s Chris Chilizza on the three big questions of the night.
And polls, they are a’closin.
9:37 p.m. Trump: The media is corrupt. I’ll be on at 10.
Some say Bernie has no shot — his continued movement is just a sign the progressive left is growing more anxious.
9:21 p.m. Bernie Sanders goes off-script, calling for “Native American justice.”
Live — voting in Arizona.
9:10 p.m. We are witnessing a Democratic breakdown in these states. This man’s registration was coming up Republican, so he had to vote provisionally.
Meanwhile, on the right.
9:00 p.m. Arizona polls close in one hour, results expected in two. Some Democrats can’t even get to their Utah caucus location.
We really wanted to participate in the Utah caucus tonight, but we can’t even get to the location. It’s a joke. — Mathew Schaffer (@mschaffer) March 23, 2016
Long lines when they do find it.
8:50 p.m. More complaints about Arizona’s voting system.
And here’s some good tongue-in-cheek Trump humor.
8:46 p.m. So, I got the times of poll closings wrong. Polls close at 10 P.M. Eastern Time in Arizona, and 1 A.M. in Utah. It’s going to be a rather late night. And by the way, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are scoring record “unfavorable” ratings for frontrunners of their national parties. Go break that glass ceiling!
8:41 p.m. Allegations of voter fraud continue.
And this is hilarious — Winter is Trumping.
8:23 p.m. Here’s video evidence of the ridiculously long lines in Arizona.
Sheriff Joe Arpaio and Governor Jan Brewer have backed The Donald.
Next Page: Nude Pic of Melania Trump shows up in anti-Trump Super PAC Ad.7:57 P.M. Yes, this is for real. An anti-Trump PAC shows a nude pic of Melania Trump to dissuade Mormon voters. Don’t worry — you can’t really see anything.
And here’s the Arizona couple who survived the Brussels attacks.
7:49 P.M. Kasich video claims that he is the best candidate to defeat Hillary. But can he stop Trump?
It may not be higher turnout, after all, in Arizona.
7:44 P.M. Interesting history of the “I Voted” sticker.
Drastic decrease in Arizona polling locations?
Arizona went from 200 polling locations to 60. People waiting in line for 4 hours. But yeah no one cares about voting. — lilb taskforce (@AyiteDalmeida1) March 22, 2016
7:40 P.M. Utah — a rather red state — would vote for a Democrat over Donald Trump.
And wow — this guy has quite a resume when it comes to dodging bullets.
7:30 P.M. The Governator says you should vote for “action Governor” John Kasich.
Here’s a great short video on “a vote for this candidate is really a vote for someone else.”
7:26 P.M. Sanders supporters say the long lines in Arizona are a good sign for the Vermont senator.
Many Democrats are incensed to find that they were listed as registered independents or as Republicans. Legal action is pending.
7:16 P.M. Independents in Arizona are confused — both parties have closed primaries, so they can’t vote.
Will all eyes turn to Wisconsin (which votes April 5) as the next “do or die” state in the Republican primary?
With Utah expected to go to Cruz, and Arizona to Trump, many are already eyeballing Wisconsin as the next “do-or-die”. — Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) March 22, 2016
7:05 P.M. Sanders supporters are alleging foul play at the polls in Arizona.
But internet search interest in Sanders has fallen in Arizona in recent days. There could be no foul play involved…
6:57 P.M. The Utah GOP allows for online voting, and today’s primary is set to break records.
And Trump reportedly has a Mormon problem — why he’s not exactly the favorite to win Utah.
6:52 P.M. Meanwhile, a #ManInTree in Seattle, Washington is drawing more attention than Hillary Clinton’s speech there.
There is but one solution.
6:46 P.M. Bernie Sanders just picked up his 27th superdelegate, who just happens to be from Arizona! That’s sure to make a dent in Hillary’s 467…
Bernie Sanders picks up his 27th superdelegate: Danica Oparnica, the DNC’s ethnic council vice chair from Arizona — John Wagner (@WPJohnWagner) March 22, 2016
The state has very high voter turnout. Could it set records?
6:39 P.M. Here’s Bernie Sanders in Flagstaff, Arizona.
Here’s Business Insider’s short briefing on today’s primaries.
6:31 P.M. Reports of a 3.5 hour line in some Arizona polling locations.
Just heard from someone in Arizona who’s waiting in a 3 1/2 hour long line to vote. — Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) March 22, 2016
Some are saying Paul Ryan’s AIPAC speech means he’s running for president. How does he poll in Arizona?
6:26 P.M. Trump loves to talk about the high turnout in the GOP primary, but that might just mean it’s a real contest, not that more Republicans will vote in November.
And some say Trump’s Arizona lifestyle makes him a favorite to win that state.
6:20 P.M. Sarah Palin will be getting her own “Judge Judy-style” reality show. Has she become Trump’s Apprentice?
Ted Cruz is trending on Twitter because he said this.
6:13 P.M. Nate Silver and pals at FiveThirtyEight are counting Arizona for Trump. It would be a big upset if Cruz wins.
Arizona tomorrow is quite important too, but we’re already counting it toward 1,237 for Trump. If he’s upset by Cruz, big problem for Trump. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) March 21, 2016
Some are saying, like I did here, that Cruz could pull off the upset in Arizona.
6:10 P.M. The Associated Press is reporting long lines in Arizona.
Some are standing in line for the first time.
I’ve lived in Arizona 22 years & always vote. Today first time I had to stand in line for a primary election. — Michael Knight (@SpinDoctor500) March 22, 2016
6:07 P.M. Mia Love calls Ted Cruz “a principled, courageous leader with a positive agenda for our future!”
And Trump is trying to capitalize on Brussels — not that there is anything wrong at all with condemning terror attacks.
6:03 P.M. Here’s Ivanka’s video, shared by Eric Trump.
And Mia Love just endorsed Ted Cruz!
5:57 P.M. These states!
Here’s FiveThirtyEight’s discussion about Trump’s delegate math going forward.
5:36 P.M. Eastern Time
Two Western states, Arizona and Utah, vote in today’s republican primaries, with nearly a hundred delegates up for grabs. Idaho also votes today on the Democratic side, in addition to Utah and Arizona. The results may propel the underdogs in the two races, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders.
Donald Trump leads in Arizona polls, and Ted Cruz leads in the recent Utah poll. Reports on the ground suggest that Cruz may catch Trump in Arizona, which is a winner-take-all state, while Utah will give all its delegates to the winner if one candidate breaks 50 percent. Bernie Sanders leads the polls in Idaho and Utah, but falls behind Clinton in Arizona. Tonight may be make-or-break for Sanders, as these Western primaries may give him much-needed momentum in the Democratic race.
Polls opened in Arizona at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time and will close at 8:30 P.M. In Utah, they opened at 9 A.M. Eastern and will close at 10 P.M. Utah and Idaho are caucus states for the Democrats, while Arizona is a closed primary for both parties.