Election 2020

Liveblogging Super Two-sday: Tonight's Election Results

2:07 A.M.

I’m calling it a night — it looks like Trump will win Hawaii, although only 27 percent is reporting. Trump had a good night tonight, and Cruz did acceptably. Kasich’s loss in Michigan, a close border state to Ohio, seems rather devastating, especially considering that Cruz defeated him for second place. Rubio had a disastrous night, picking up either no delegates, or a paltry few from Hawaii.

This night has not necessarily altered the race in any meaningful way, except to further highlight that Cruz may be the only candidate to stop The Donald. While Trump leads by large margins, Cruz may be becoming competitive against him. While it remains true that later states tend to prefer more moderate candidates, Kasich’s failure to beat Cruz in Michigan may speak to his inadequacy as a candidate. It is still possible for Kasich or Rubio to pick up steam later, but it will have to be soon — March 15 is coming around the corner, and with it the key states of Florida and Ohio.

Trump will end the night with more than 446 delegates, and Cruz will likely gain a few from his current number of 347. This means that Trump will have at least 36 percent of the delegates he needs to win the nomination, and Cruz will have 28 percent. It is possible that we’re headed toward a contested convention, especially if Kasich somehow wins Ohio and Rubio somehow wins Florida (both of these are unlikely, however). This may not be the worst scenario — Ronald Reagan fought the 1976 nomination to a contested convention, and only narrowly lost to Gerald Ford.

Sanders’s win in Michigan was a huge upset, and will be discussed at length in the coming week. Ultimately, though, he still has a long way to go in order to challenge Hillary.

Latest Hawaii results — 27 percent reporting:

Trump — 46.6 percent (728 votes). Cruz — 28.2 percent (440 votes). Rubio — 13.1 percent (205 votes). Kasich — 10.2 percent (159 votes).

1:44 A.M.

Latest Hawaii results — 13 percent reporting:

Trump — 42.1 percent (241 votes). Cruz — 27.9 percent (160 votes). Rubio — 14.7 percent (84 votes). Kasich — 14.1 percent (81 votes).

Kasich essentially tied with Rubio for third, but there are still a lot of votes to come in.

This was before Hawaii, but still.

1:26 A.M.

Rubio touts former lieutenant governor endorsement in Hawaii.

The Governator has a message for Hawaiians. He wants them to vote — I want them to give us their results!

1:22 A.M.

Rubio accuses Cruz campaign of doing a “drop out email” in Hawaii, like the rumors that Carson would drop before Iowa.

Tallies: From Mississippi — 99 percent reporting:

Trump — 47.3 percent, 24 delegates. Cruz — 36.3 percent, 13 delegates. Kasich — 8.8 percent, zero delegates. Rubio — 5.1 percent, zero delegates.

Michigan — 98 percent reporting:

Trump — 36.5 percent, 25 delegates. Cruz — 24.9 percent, 17 delegates. Kasich — 24.3 percent, 17 delegates. Rubio — 9.3 percent, zero delegates.

Idaho — 78 percent reporting:

Cruz — 44.0 percent, 14 delegates. Trump — 28.2 percent, 10 delegates. Rubio — 17.2 percent, zero delegates. Kasich — 7.4 percent, zero delegates.

1:14 A.M.

So apparently this happened at the Trump press conference:

Also, some Rubio folks are already jumping to Cruz.

1:10 A.M.

Polls are closed in Hawaii — results forthcoming.

Here’s some, uh, commentary:

And this is mean, kicking a man while he’s down. Accurate, though:

12:58 A.M.

Closed vs. open primaries, some say, are making the difference between Cruz and Trump victories.

And Trump is still on track to win the G.O.P. nomination, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tool

12:49 A.M.

Calls for Rubio to kamikaze Trump to support Cruz are increasing.

Some blame Rubio for Trump’s lead.

12:44 A.M.

Paul O’Neill, the retired Yankees right fielder, is also trending on Twitter, following his endorsement of Trump in The Donald’s press conference.

But not all of the tweets are positive.

12:41 A.M.

Trump supporters are usurping the #IfTrumpWins hashtag.

Although this one’s pretty good.

12:37 A.M.

For all the talk about Sanders’s poll-defying upset in Michigan, it looks like Clinton will still take more delegates from tonight. Michigan gives Sanders 65 delegates and Clinton 57 delegates, while Mississippi gives Clinton 29 delegates and Sanders only 4 delegates. Totals — 86 for Clinton, 69 for Sanders.

On the G.O.P. side, it’s still too early to tell how many delegates Cruz will win in Idaho. Michigan has awarded Trump 25 delegates, and 17 each to Cruz and Kasich. In Mississippi, Trump has 24 delegates to Cruz’s 13.

#IfTrumpWins is trending on Twitter.

12:26 A.M.

Poll shows majority of voters view Trump negatively, say he would bring “the wrong kind of change.”

And this is hilarious.

12:21 A.M.

FiveThirtyEight’s Dave Wasserman on how bad Rubio’s showing tonight was:

Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for Marco Rubio, it has tonight. Buried in the drama is the fact that Rubio has yet to win a single delegate in tonight’s primaries. Not only did he fall woefully short of hitting Mississippi’s 15 percent delegate threshold and 6 percentage points shy of hitting Michigan’s 15 percent threshold, his current 18 percent in Idaho is just barely below the Gem State’s 20 percent threshold. Luckily for Rubio, Hawaii’s lack of a delegate threshold is likely to save him from a humiliating shutout. But Rubio’s mainland fortunes couldn’t have fallen any further.

Some cheeky responses to Trump’s claim that Cruz hasn’t really beaten him.

12:14 A.M.

Michigan has the most black voters of any state Sanders has won.

Here’s a tongue-in-cheek explanation of why Cruz won Idaho.

12:03 A.M.

Cruz is projected to win Idaho.

Inside Sanders’s gain among black voters in Michigan:

11:58 P.M.

Ted Cruz has pulled ahead of John Kasich in Michigan. With 92 percent reporting:

Trump — 36.8 percent, 448,612 votes. Cruz — 24.7 percent, 301,423 votes. Kasich — 24.3 percent, 296,783 votes. Rubio — 9.2 percent, 112,773 votes.

11:54 P.M.

The Sanders win is huge because the polls predicted Clinton would trounce him. They were wrong by 21 points.

Idaho is at 32 percent reporting:

Cruz — 41.1 percent. Trump — 29.5 percent. Rubio — 18.5 percent. Kasich — 6.8 percent.

11:52 P.M.

The AP has called Michigan for Sanders.

Cruz is still leading in Idaho.

11:22 P.M.

Idaho — 4 percent reporting:

Cruz — 36.8 percent. Trump — 28.3 percent. Rubio — 23.4 percent. Kasich — 7.5 percent.

Mississippi update — 88 percent reporting:

Trump — 48.0 percent. Cruz — 36.4 percent. Kasich — 8.3 percent. Rubio — 4.9 percent.

11:17 P.M.

The Great Democratic Age Gap continues.

This was from one month ago.

11:12 P.M.

With 81 percent of the vote in in Michigan, Kasich leads Cruz by less than 3,000 votes:

Trump — 37.1 percent, 402,417 votes.

Kasich — 24.6 percent, 266,359 votes.

Cruz — 24.3 percent, 263,829 votes.

Rubio — 9.2 percent, 99,503 votes.

Meanwhile, Sanders is almost 25,000 votes ahead of Clinton, also with 81 percent reporting.

11:09 P.M.

Idaho has same-day registration, and only a Republican primary tonight. Polls have closed.

And Sanders is up in Michigan.

10:54 P.M.

Is Trump running press conferences instead of victory rallies in order to appear more presidential?

And the guy who shot the pastor who prayed with Ted Cruz in Idaho was just arrested — at the White House.

10:50 P.M.

Polls will close in Idaho in ten minutes. Ted Cruz might surprise there.

And Decision Desk, which has a good track record, is saying Clinton wins, despite Sanders leading in the site’s own count.

10:45 P.M.

Those businesses, though.

And Sanders is starting to pick up black voters.

10:40 P.M.

Now here’s a fascinating question.

And Trump has won Dearborn, the city with the highest concentration of Arab-Americans in the U.S.

10:34 P.M.

Bernie Sanders is running strong among independents, really strong. FiveThirtyEight’s Harry Enten:

One result that has stayed consistent on the Democratic side is that self-identified independents are far more likely to vote for Sanders. The current exit poll estimate is that he is winning them in Michigan by a 70 percent to 28 percent margin. Clinton, on the other hand, leads among self-identified Democrats by 57 percent to 41 percent. Although party registration doesn’t necessarily match identification, it gives you an idea that Sanders really benefits from open primaries.

And when it comes to Democrat Millennial women, youth matters more than gender, in Michigan.

10:30 P.M.

Ouch.

Whatever you think of Trump’s steaks, the guy sure can win primaries.

10:24 P.M.

Even if Sanders wins Michigan tonight, he still has a long road ahead.

But Michigan brings Trump to 14 primary wins.

10:21 P.M.

Why Matt Continetti can’t support Trump:

And Sanders supporters are anxious for their guy.

10:16 P.M.

Arab-Americans for Bernie?

Want to know what qualities mattered for the supporters of what candidates?

10:13 P.M.

Michigan — 50 percent reporting:

Trump — 37.1 percent, 21 delegates. Kasich — 25.3 percent, 15 delegates. Cruz — 24.0 percent, 12 delegates. Rubio — 9.0 percent, 0 delegates.

Mississippi — 55 percent reporting:

Trump — 49.5 percent, 20 delegates. Cruz — 35.3 percent, 0 delegates. Kasich — 7.9 percent, 0 delegates. Rubio — 4.8 percent, 0 delegates.

So far — and these numbers are not final — Trump won 40 delegates, Kasich 15, and Cruz 12 tonight. There are still more votes to count and delegates to be awarded, however.

10:08 P.M.

Sanders should do well in Michigan, if he’s tied with Clinton nationally.

10:03 P.M.

Could Cruz come in second in Michigan?

Steve Forbes finds Bernie Sanders’s surprise strength “amazing.”

9:59 P.M.

Trump is SOOOOO presidential.

And this is interesting.

9:55 P.M.

Nate Silver with advice for the #NeverTrump movement:

With Donald Trump having a good night, Republicans hoping to stop him will be thinking about next steps. One good sign for them is that theMichigan exit poll found Trump losing to Cruz 46 percent to 37 percent — with 12 percent of voters sitting out the race — in a hypothetical two-way matchup.

As Bloomberg’s Sahil Kapur reminds us, however, Cruz was once an unpalatable option to “establishment” Republicans and remains that way among his colleagues in the Senate, who have given him no endorsements. Cruz does have quite a few endorsements among state legislators, however, which could be important because state parties could potentially have quite a bit of power in the event of a contested convention.

It’s official — “Move to Canada” searches hit a new record.

9:51 P.M.

The real winner of tonight?

And some people want to move to Canada for some reason.

9:39 P.M.

Trump: “If I want to be, I can be more presidential than anybody…other than the Great Abe Lincoln.”

Michigan results with 34 percent reporting:

Trump — 37.5 percent. Kasich — 25.6 percent. Cruz — 23.3 percent. Rubio — 9.0 percent.

Mississippi results with 26 percent reporting:

Trump — 49.5 percent. Cruz — 35.4 percent. Kasich — 7.9 percent. Rubio — 4.6 percent.

9:36 P.M.

Trump says “it’s harder for a Republican to win the presidency by a factor of 5.” The Donald says that in a general election, he would win New York, Michigan, Virginia, and more. Is Trump right about the weakness of the G.O.P.?

Here’s an image from Trump’s press conference:

9:31 P.M.

Trump attacks Cruz as “lying Ted.” Says, “I’m a very good Christian. They’re chipping away at Christianity and the Evangelicals get it, they understand me, and I’ll be the best thing that happened to them.”

Rubio dismisses the meaning of his losses — Florida will determine all. Is this wishful thinking?

9:28 P.M.

Donald Trump thanks Megyn Kelly and Charles Krauthammer who acknowledged he did well tonight.

Bernie Sanders is surprisingly competitive in Michigan. Here’s Nate Silver on what that means:

If Sanders winds up winning in Michigan, in fact, it will count as among the greatest polling errors in primary history. Clinton led by 21.3 percentage points in our final Michigan polling average. Previously, the candidate with the largest lead to lose a state in our database of well-polled primaries and caucuses was Walter Mondale, who led in New Hampshire by 17.1 percentage points but lost to Gary Hart in 1984.

9:26 P.M.

Yes, here’s Trump magazine.

9:21 P.M.

Cruz is beating Trump with women in Michigan:

Trump says polls show him beating Clinton. Here are some examples:

9:17 P.M.

Trump says “the single biggest story in politics today” is the increased turnout in Republican primaries, while Democrats are down. Says Democrats and Independents are coming over to his campaign.

“I want to thank the special interests and the lobbyists, because they have to have done something for those numbers.”

Says Paul Ryan “couldn’t be nicer.”

9:13 P.M.

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Trump is speaking now: $38 million worth of lies but his wins “show the public is smarter.”

Points out Paul O’Neill of the Yankees, who comes from Ohio. Trump says “do you endorse me? Thank you!”

9:08 P.M.

Could Ted Cruz still surprise in Michigan, even with Trump’s win? Here’s David Wasserman:

So far, Ted Cruz is winning heavily Dutch and evangelical Ottawa County in Michigan with 47 percent, to 20 percent for Kasich and 19 percent for Trump. Trump will win Michigan tonight, but Cruz’s huge margin in this western Michigan county bodes well for his chances of overtaking Kasich for second place.

And FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver claims victory.

As a result, our “polls-only” forecast projected the tally at Trump 39, Cruz 23, Kasich 22, Rubio 13. Meanwhile, our “polls-plus” forecast had it Trump 37, Kasich 24, Cruz 23, Rubio 14. The results so far — with Kasich’s strongest areas probably overrepresented a bit and Cruz’s underrepresented — are Trump 38, Kasich 27, Cruz 22, Rubio 9. It looks as though Kasich picked up a few late votes from Rubio, but otherwise polling averages will have done a pretty good job.

9:06 P.M.

Michigan is called for Trump.

9:03 P.M.

The real anti-Trump movement may have just begun.

Here’s a livestream of Trump’s press conference tonight.

8:58 P.M.

This is far funnier than it should be.

Mississippi and Michigan may be Trump’s, but Idaho could be Cruz’s sleeper.

8:54 P.M.

Self-identified Evangelicals are backing Trump.

First Things breaks it down:

8:51 P.M.

The story of a Rubio loss is gaining steam.

Fortune magazine on Trump’s success:

8:47 P.M.

Will Rubio be tonight’s real loser?

Here’s some professional advice on how to deal with Trump victories.

8:41 P.M.

FiveThirtyEight’s David Wasserman predicts Trump will win Michigan:

It’s pretty clear at this point that Donald Trump will win Michigan. He’s beating John Kasich in Oakland County now (the richest and best-educated large suburb in the state), and he’s well ahead of Cruz and Kasich in most rural counties. There could be an interesting battle for second place between Cruz and Kasich, though. Cruz is running well ahead of Kasich in rural and western counties, but Kasich is running well ahead of Cruz in the Detroit suburbs.

Kasich’s camp hopes for a strong showing to boost the Ohio governor in his home state.

8:38 P.M.

Michigan — 9 percent reporting:

Donald Trump — 37.6 percent. John Kasich — 29.6 pecent. Ted Cruz — 20.4 percent. Marco Rubio — 8.6 percent.

And people think Sanders has a shot in Michigan.

8:35 P.M.

Fox and NBC call Mississippi for Trump.

But there is also this.

8:30 P.M.

Just a reminder, if you live in any of these states — besides Mississippi — go vote!

Trump pulls ahead in Michigan.

8:26 P.M.

63 percent of Republicans who don’t support Trump support a contested convention.

And this is how badly both Trump and Cruz are doing in Mississippi.

8:23 P.M.

Exit polls on Trump — roughly half of Republican voters think he’s trustworthy and would be satisfied with him.

And this is insane — male Dems go heavy for Hillary in Mississippi.

8:20 P.M.

Michigan voters just really want those ballots.

And will JOHN KASICH win the Michigan primary?

8:17 P.M.

Ted Cruz may be the most conservative candidate we could possibly get.

And this is fascinating. There must be something in the Mississippi water.

8:10 P.M.

John Kasich predicts contested convention.

And Mississippians and Michiganders in the G.O.P. are angry at the federal government.

8:07 P.M.

Now that’s a close race, called right after the polls closed.

And G.O.P. exit polls show very conservative voters for Cruz, somewhat conservatives and moderates going huge for Trump.

8:04 P.M.

Polls have closed in Mississippi, results should come in soon.

Romney’s attack on Trump seems to have helped The Donald:

And this is comforting.

8:02 P.M.

Has Rubio lost his late deciders advantage?

And some say the party is deciding against Trump.

7:57 P.M.

John Oliver couldn’t make enough “Make Donald Drumpf Again” hats.

Trump has newly high “unfavorable” ratings.

7:54 P.M.

Mississippi voters are concerned about the economy.

And now for some good old-fashioned humor.

7:48 P.M.

John Kasich leading among late-deciders in Michigan, followed closely by Ted Cruz:

Mississippi Dems are fans of Obama.

7:43 P.M.

John Kasich releases taxes, calls on Trump to do the same.

Here are FiveThirtyEight’s Michigan projections — looks pretty good for Trump.

7:40 P.M.

This may hurt Cruz among the anti-establishment voters:

Hit and run? You don’t mess with The Donald.

7:38 P.M.

Bad polls for The Donald:

And Ted Cruz mocks Trump’s call for his supporters to pledge to vote for him.

7:35 P.M.

Here’s political guru Donald Trump on the state of the Mississippi primary:

Here’s Mississippi’s Governor:

7:27 P.M.

Here’s the state of the polls in Mississippi and Michigan:

And here’s how Trump, Cruz, and Rubio shape up when compared to their FiveThirtyEight targets. Naturally, this is debatable:

7:23 P.M.

Here’s a nice little recap of the night’s festivities:

Campaign ads are starting to add up against Trump. From FiveThirtyEight’s David Wasserman:

According to CMAG/Kantar Media’s Elizabeth Wilner and Mitchell West, the proportion of anti-Trump ads (either by unaffiliated PACs or candidate-affiliated super PACs) as a percentage of all GOP ads has grown from 9 percent at the beginning of February to 47 percent in the first week of March. In terms of dollars, anti-Trump ads grew from 15 percent of all GOP ad spending in the first week of February to 62 percent in the first week of March.

7:00 P.M.

Tonight, four more states vote in the Republican primary and two more in the Democratic. Results from both parties in Mississippi will come first at 8 P.M. Eastern Time. Then Michigan will follow at 9 P.M., also for both. The Republican contests in Idaho will be released around 11 P.M. and Hawaii around 1 A.M. It’s going to be a long night, so strap yourselves in!

Tonight is very unpredictable. On Super Tuesday, Donald Trump dominated, but Cruz gained three states and Marco Rubio won his first in Minnesota. This past Saturday, Cruz surged to take Kansas and Maine by large margins, and Trump only won Kentucky and Louisiana with Cruz nipping at his heels. Rubio lost badly on Saturday, but his win in Puerto Rico on Sunday may have helped him regain steam.

Trump leads by large margins in the recent polls in Michigan and Mississippi, but there are only two recent Mississippi polls and Ben Carson was in both. Furthermore, the Governator himself, Arnold Schwarzenegger, just endorsed John Kasich, while Chuck Norris and Mississippi Governor Phil Bryant endorsed Ted Cruz.

The stage is set for upsets on the G.O.P. side, but Clinton is a heavy favorite to win among the Democrats. She leads Sanders in both Michigan and Mississippi by healthy margins.