Election 2020

Sanders Overcomes 21-Point Polling Deficit to Win Michigan

(AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Welcome to the utter unpredictability of 2016.

Senator Bernie Sanders scored an upset win in the Michigan Democratic primary, according to the Associated Press, threatening to prolong a Democratic campaign that Hillary Clinton appeared to have all but locked up last week.

While strengthening Mr. Sanders’s hand as the race turns to a series of large states next week, his victory in Michigan did not drastically alter Mrs. Clinton’s delegate lead, as she won overwhelmingly in Mississippi, crushing Mr. Sanders among African-American voters.

Sure, the Democrats’ magical superdelegate garbage keeps Mrs. Bill rolling along, but this is what her advantage looked like heading into today (click to enlarge):

This is not polling that was just off. It’s polling that bears no resemblance whatsoever to reality. This should fire up some conspiracy theory types who believe pollsters have now joined the Democratic Party elites in trying to fix this thing for Hillary so she can’t blow it, and it would be difficult to dismiss them now.

Anybody speaking with authority on “what’s going to happen” in this election simply isn’t paying attention. This is why you can’t really believe polls about November that people quote as definitive regarding head-to-head matchups. Politico‘s Ben White put it quite well in a tweet tonight:

There’s still a lot of voting to be done out there. The press needs to get over its urge to get it wrapped up early in an effort to stop looking foolish.