Election 2020

Hillary's 2016 Lead Disappearing Faster Than Her 2008 Advantage

Hillary's 2016 Lead Disappearing Faster Than Her 2008 Advantage
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Not so ready for Hillary.

In 2008, Hillary Clinton saddled up for the Kentucky Derby on a thoroughbred that was a sure thing. Her campaign was the finest colt in Kentucky, at odds that barely made it worth betting on her. The race began, and she was up by a quarter mile. Then, as another jockey started to gain, she slipped out of her saddle. She was barely hanging on, bumping along against the dirt, bruised and struggling and still hanging in there a half-a-length back. And then she lost and grudgingly wished the victor luck in winning the Triple Crown.

So you have to figure that, when 2016 rolled around and everyone was saying, “No, this horse is a sure thing,” she was a bit wary. But she got on. She ran strong. She did well. And now, in the final turn, there might be something wrong with the saddle.

If we compare where Clinton is now in the Real Clear Politics polling average, the 2016 picture and the 2008 picture aren’t really all that similar. Nationally, she was doing much better in 2008 than she is right now, perhaps in part because the anti-Clinton vote in 2008 was still split between two people — Barack Obama and John Edwards — instead of just one. But that recent trend line, a function of two new national polls that were close after a bit of a lull, is not very good news.

Mrs. Bill’s lack of authenticity and general awfulness have always been her real problems. The difference between now and 2008 is the social media explosion. The Clintons are very adept at strong-arming old media to create various myths around Hillary, but they haven’t been able to collar new media. Positive Bernie memes are everywhere and Hillary never wears well with increased exposure so most attempts by her handlers to make her more likable on social media have been miserable failures.

This could all still work out just fine for Granny Pander with continued generous assistance from the still somewhat powerful MSM, hapless Republicans, and Bernie Sanders refusing to knock her out, but clouds are definitely gathering right now.

Here’s what those clouds look like in chart form:
Hillary Chart