President Trump has broken any number of things. Mostly the psyche of Democrats in Hollywood, Washington, D.C., and the media. It has never been so clear just how effective the Left has been at taking over our institutions. If Trump wins today, Frank Luntz has predicted it will be the end of the polling industry. Could he break the election superstitions we call bellwethers, too?
Dixville Notch, N.H., is the first polling precinct to report every presidential election. This year, five people in this tiny New Hampshire town of twelve voted. Many election hawks look at this as an indicator of how the rest of America will vote, and all five voted for Joe Biden, with the campaign earning a viral video for Election Day.
Republican Les Otten cast his vote and explained why in a video that has gotten over a million views:
— Dixville Vote (@DixvilleVote) November 2, 2020
Trump supporters freaking out over the clean sweep should take heart, however. According to The Hill, the little New Hampshire hamlet was woefully wrong during the Democratic primary, going all-in for Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg. The county was also wrong in 2016 when its voters selected Hillary Clinton. Other small towns in New Hampshire also get in on the early results bandwagon, and in nearby Millsfield, President Trump took 16 of the 21 votes cast. So, take heart, New Hampshire stands at 16 to 10.
Another indicator is cookies. Two bakeries have a pretty good predictive record in selling election-related cookies. Lochel’s Bakery in Hatboro, Pennsylvania, has accurately predicted the last three elections by selling candidate-related confections. Trump-themed cookies are outselling Joe Biden’s by a 6-to-1 margin. According to Fox News, the bakery’s owner, Kathleen Lochel, said:
“We plan on tallying them up tomorrow night, to do our final tally,” she told Fox News on Monday morning of the bakery’s “cookie poll,” which kicked off around two months back.
“But right now, Donald Trump is still in the lead… we’ve sold about 28,000 [Trump] cookies to 5,000 [of Biden’s]. By the end of today’s sales, knowing the orders we have, [Trump cookie sales] should probably approach 29,000.”
Enthusiasm for President Trump or a sugar coma? Only time will tell.
Another bakery in Houston, Three Brothers, has accurately predicted elections for the last 16 years. As of yesterday, Yahoo News reported that President Trump is ahead in their sales as well. Uncle Mike’s Bake Shoppe in Wisconsin is reporting a 2-to-1 margin for the president. The bakery owner says this kind of spread is unusual:
“Usually they (candidates) are within ten points of each other, but this year, Trump is winning 2-to-1,” [owner Mike] Vande Walle told TODAY. “I have no clue why that’s happening. My only guess is that some people buy them because they’re supporting the candidate, but other people buy them as a thing to give their friend, who hates the other guy. It’s a fun thing.”
Or we are dealing with a president whose supporters are far more enthusiastic than the media likes to admit? Enthusiasm for a candidate matters. Republicans found this out in 2012 when a significant portion of voters, 38%, indicated they were voting against President Obama instead of for Mitt Romney.
In June of this year, 60% of Biden’s voters said they were voting against President Trump rather than for Biden. By contrast, 70% of the president’s voters said they were voting for him instead of against Joe Biden. Since first polled in 1984 during the Reagan-Mondale race, when a challenger’s voters are voting against the incumbent rather than for the challenger, the challenger loses.
Apparently, hate doesn’t get people off the couch, no matter what they tell pollsters about their intention to go to the polls. At least in prior elections. This is 2020, and nothing has gone as predicted. However, President Trump has enthusiasm and cookies. Whether that can stand against Dixville Notch remains to be seen.