Donald Trump’s approval rating has waxed and waned over the previous few months. Gallup had it at 42 percent earlier in September.
But the closer we get to the election, the more people are focusing on the candidates and where they stand on the issues. That, and Trump’s performance after Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death appears to have given him a significant boost.
Gallup’s newest polls show Trump’s approval at 46 percent. This compares to Barack Obama’s approval at 47 percent with a month to go in the campaign.
The data, which was gathered in the two weeks before the debate, reflected an uptick from the 42% Trump received earlier in September. That increase, the polling company suggested, could be associated with his response to late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death.
“Although the increase of four percentage points in Trump’s latest rating is not statistically significant, the poll’s internals suggest a rise in his support the second half of the Sept. 14-28 field period coincident with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death and lying in state, as well as Trump’s announcing that he would quickly make a nomination to the Supreme Court. This suggests that some viewed his handling of the situation positively,” a press release from Gallup reads.
What’s more, a significant percentage of both Republicans and Democrats see Trump as the winner on Election Day.
Polling has repeatedly shown Biden beating Trump overall and in key battleground states. Averages from both RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight have Biden up by 7 to 8 percentage points.
However, Gallup reported that 56% of Americans believe the president will win in November. Only 40% said the same for Biden. In total, 90% of Republicans and 56% of independents predicted a Trump victory, compared to just 24% of Democrats.
Just 24 percent of Democrats think Sleepy Joe is going to win? Thinking your guy is going to lose might affect your decision about whether to vote at all.
Trump is probably going to lose the popular vote. Biden will get upwards of 60 percent in California, New York, and Illinois, and with close races in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Biden will outpoll Trump — probably by a million or more votes.
It won’t matter. If Trump runs the table in his Midwest stronghold, Biden will lose. The Electoral College makes this a national election, not a big state election. Opponents of the Electoral College complain about just a few states deciding the contest. But eliminating the Electoral College would make almost all states besides California and New York irrelevant.
The Founders knew what they were doing in creating the Electoral College. They saw Virginia, New York, and Pennsylvania dominating the young republic and fashioned the Electoral College so that candidates would have to have a national appeal. That’s less true today, but still relevant.