Election 2020

Post-Convention Bounce for Trump Halves Biden's Lead

Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour

The first rash of post-convention polls was released today and all of them are showing a definite Trump bounce.

The Morning Consult poll from before the convention had Trump trailing Biden by 10 points, 52-42, but a poll taken on Friday found Trump trailing by 50-44.

The Yahoo/YouGov poll is even more surprising. The polling outfit recontacted the same people its team had surveyed at the end of July when Biden had a 9-point lead and found that Biden’s lead had shrunk to 6.

That shift — about two and a half percent overall — is the result of roughly 1 percent of registered voters switching from Biden to Trump and a smaller number who previously said they would not vote now saying they will vote for Trump.

These small changes were enough to transform a big Biden lead into a moderate Biden lead.

And it’s getting smaller as suburban voters are starting to come back to Trump and the president’s lead among white voters has expanded.

Trump cut into Biden’s lead among voters in the suburbs: Before the convention, Biden led by 14 points (54 percent to 40 percent), but after the convention, he led by 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent).

Trump also improved his margin among white voters, leading Biden 51 percent to 43 percent on Friday compared with a 2-point edge earlier in the week. That included a 6-point gain in his advantage among white voters without a college degree, among whom he leads 57 percent to 36 percent.

No wonder Biden announced yesterday that he would be leaving his basement to hit the campaign trail in a few days.

Trump’s post-convention bounce is about average. A bounce of two to four points is standard. But what has to have Biden sweating is that he got a dead-cat bounce from his convention while Trump is surging.

Interestingly, the biggest change for Trump came under perceptions of his “strength.”

The most pronounced change involved perceptions of the president’s “strength.” Right before the RNC, 33 percent of Americans said Trump possessed this quality; right after, that number increased to 38 percent. Over the last month, the numbers of Americans saying Trump “cares a lot about people like you” rose from 19 percent to 22 percent, while the percentage saying they like him “a lot” or “somewhat” rose from 24 percent to 28 percent. It’s possible that a handful of voters who now consider Trump stronger and more likeable than before have decided to vote for him as a result.

Well, however many voters changed their attitude it’s a helluva lot more than a “handful.” Sheesh.

The Kenosha riots may have been a game-changer for the campaign. They have forced Democrats to take the uncomfortable position of agreeing with the rioters while condemning the violence. Most people don’t grasp the nuance. All they know is that it sounds like Biden and the Democrats want it both ways — support of the peaceful protesters and the law-and-order voters.

It’s not going to work.

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