A new Morning Consult poll shows Senator Elizabeth Warren would help Joe Biden’s campaign for president more than any other potential vice-presidential candidate.
Part of the reason for Warren’s strength is certainly her superior name recognition compared to some of the other candidates. All the Democrats who are pleading with Biden to choose a black female candidate to run with him might be wrong. Warren scores well with blacks and Hispanics, and those under 45.
According to the May 22-26 survey, 26 percent of registered voters said placing her on the ticket would make them more likely to vote for Biden, while 23 percent said it would make them less likely to back him. Her positive impact on Biden increased among voters under the age of 45, who view Warren in a more favorable light than they do Biden, as well as black and Hispanic voters.
Warren would obviously solve a couple of problems for Biden who is weak with liberals and the Bernie Sanders/AOC socialist wing of the party. And Warren would be equally strong with blacks and Hispanics as Senator Kamala Harris.
The poll found other high-profile potential picks such as California Sen. Kamala Harris, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Georgia’s Stacey Abrams would have a similarly marginal impact on the overall electorate. However, Harris, who would make 22 percent of the electorate more likely to vote for Biden, roughly matches Warren’s power with key groups such as voters under the age of 45 and voters in America’s suburbs.
But black leaders would have a fit if Biden chose a white woman while Harris and Stacey Abrams were left behind. They think they got Biden the nomination when he was hopelessly behind and they want to get their payout for it.
But outside of Harris, few of the other VP candidates are well known.
The other names in the survey — Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, Florida Rep. Val Demings, New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto — would start out as a net negative for Biden, though this likely reflects the finding that more than 3 in 5 have never heard of or have no opinion about the five women.
Biden doesn’t need a black VP candidate to lock up the black vote. But 10 percent fewer blacks voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and it cost her the election. Biden sees the ideological advantages that Warren gives him but needs a surge in black support more.
I agree with PJM’s Stephen Green. When all is said and done, it will be Harris.