Are we headed for a repeat of 2016 where the Democrat wins the popular vote but Trump wins the electoral college?
In several big blue states like California, Illinois, and New York, Trump is getting trounced in the popular vote. But in 15 states decided by 8 points or less in 2016, Trump is cleaning up.
The 15 states are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin and Trump leads by a margin of 52-45.
Biden’s lead nationally is 51-46.
The poll found Trump with a slight edge among independents, at 50 percent to 46 percent. It found Biden leads 55 percent to 41 percent among women and 69 percent to 26 percent among people of color, while Trump leads with white people 55 percent to 43 percent.
Trump won 50 percent support from men compared with 46 percent for Biden.
That breakdown looks a lot like 2016, except Trump won the over-50 voters then and in this latest survey, is doing better with people of color than he did in 2016.
The survey found the former vice president leading among voters 45 and older by 6 points, but neck and neck among voters under 45, with 49 percent supporting Biden and 46 percent supporting Trump. Biden also leads Trump among voters 65 and older.
Voters said they trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy, 54 percent to 42 percent. Biden, however, is more trusted to handle both the response to the coronavirus outbreak, 51 percent to 45 percent, and health care in general, 54 percent to 42 percent.
Even with 36 million unemployed, voters trust Trump on the economy more than Biden by a healthy margin. What does that tell Joe Biden as he sits in his basement telling us how bad everything is?
Biden is getting the “hold my nose and vote” faction.
The survey found 55 percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, compared with 46 percent for Biden. Among the 14 percent of respondents who view both candidates unfavorably, Biden leads 71 percent to 19 percent.
But maybe the biggest takeaway from this snapshot poll is that more younger voters are supporting Trump despite the savage opposition of most pop culture figures.
Though other recent polling has shown some signs of concern for Biden among younger voters and strength among older ones, few have pegged the race as this close among younger voters. The results suggest that younger voters in the battleground states are tilted in favor of Trump, a stark change from the last CNN poll in which battleground voters were analyzed in March, even as other demographic groups shifted to a smaller degree.
Democrats are very uncomfortable, despite the bad economy and the coronavirus. Could it be that the Democrats’ efforts to blame Trump for 80,000 deaths aren’t working? Perhaps the American voter has surveyed the rest of the world and realized no nation has responded that well to the pandemic. Or, more likely, they have decided that Trump did about as well as he could and Democrats are playing politics with the pandemic.
One thing people aren’t is mad at the president. Democrats have been trying to get people enraged at Trump since the pandemic began but the disconnect between their words and the reality of what’s happening prevents that from happening.
What the American people want is a leader who will bring the economy back to life. Voters obviously don’t think Biden is the person to do it.