The loyalty and enthusiasm of Donald Trump voters could very well mean the difference for the president in the November election.
The most recent Emerson College survey found that not only does Trump outdistance Biden in voter enthusiasm, but a solid majority of voters believe he will win the election.
And according to the latest Emerson College Polling’s survey, Democrats appear to be throwing in the towel. While Biden leads President Trump in a head-to-head matchup, 48%-42%, when voters overall were asked who they really think will win in November, it’s a Trump blowout, 57%-43%.
Trump’s supporters have legendary loyalty and have stuck with him through the impeachment process and in the coronavirus fight. Both should have also energized his critics to vote him out of office.
But the Emerson voting enthusiasm numbers show that isn’t the case.
Emerson found that Trump has a sizable 19-point advantage in the enthusiasm gap, 64%-45%. Some 36% of his supporters said they are “extremely excited” to vote for Trump, and 28% said they are “very excited.” For Biden, those numbers are 22% and 23%.
Biden wins the “mildly excited” category, with 29% to Trump’s 22%.
Would the Democrats have been more excited if Bernie Sanders were the nominee? I think the “very excited” number would be higher, but overall enthusiasm would still find Trump far ahead. There are enough sane Democrats left who realize what a Bernie Sanders presidency would mean and not be enthused about voting for a socialist.
But Sanders isn’t the nominee, and the Democrats are stuck with Joe Biden.
The Rasmussen numbers are even rosier for Trump. Washington Examiner:
And it’s not just Emerson. Rasmussen Reports said today that a sky-high 60% are excited about a Biden-Trump matchup, far more than the 2016 Clinton-Trump battle. It found an 18-point enthusiasm gap between Republicans, of whom 75% are excited, and Democrats, who are at 57%.
Another big hurdle for Biden is bringing Sanders supporters into the fold. While many are still on the fence, you would expect that by the time Election Day arrives, the vast majority of the holdouts will pull the lever for Biden.
How much would it help if Barack Obama actually showed a little more enthusiasm for Biden?
“While Trump is struggling to handle the coronavirus epidemic, it appears Biden has his own image issues with voters and may need help from former President Obama on the campaign trail to try and transfer the positive image voters have of Obama to Biden,” [Emerson Polling Director Spencer Kimball] said.
As a Democratic icon, Barack Obama is surpassed only by his wife Michelle. And she has strangely taken a back seat in this election. If both Obamas chose, they could become much more visible on Biden’s behalf. Perhaps in September or October when their intervention might make a bigger difference, they will step forward.
It’s doubtful that even the “Obama magic” with Democrats can inject enthusiasm for Joe Biden into the party faithful. Trump will still have a big enthusiasm advantage going into the election.