Election 2020

Establishment Dem Nightmare: Bernie Leads in Nevada, and is Ahead in Two Largest Super Tuesday States

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) speaks in support of Kansas Democrat Brent Welder, who lost his primary Aug. 7, at Jack Reardon Convention Center on July 20, 2018, in Kansas City. (Luke Harbur /The Kansas City Star via AP)

The Bernie Sanders juggernaut may begin to start rolling in earnest as Sanders is holding on to a 7-point lead among likely Nevada caucus-goers with just eight days to go.

Sanders also leads in the two biggest states that will vote in the March 3 gaggle of primaries: Texas and California.

The next three weeks could tell the tale of the entire nominating process for Democrats. As Sanders appears more and more the inevitable nominee, the bandwagon will grow. Establishment Democrats, like Republicans in 2016 trying to stop Trump, will mount an “Anybody but Bernie” campaign. And they will fail just as miserably.

Bloomberg will likely win a few primaries, but the math is daunting — as Sanders found out against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Even a lopsided win by Bloomberg or some other candidate will garner only a few more delegates than Sanders if he finishes second. And it appears that Sanders will be able to build a lead of several hundred delegates after Super Tuesday, making challengers unlikely to overtake him.

Sanders has the enthusiasm, as he is showing in Nevada.

Las Vegas Review-Journal:

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders leads the presidential field by a solid margin among likely Democratic caucus-goers heading into Nevada’s four-day early voting period, but all six of the candidates actively campaigning in the state this week earned double-digit support according to The Nevada Poll™.

The telephone poll, conducted by WPA Intelligence on behalf of the Las Vegas Review-Journal and AARP Nevada, contacted 413 likely caucus attendees from Tuesday through Thursday.

Sanders led the pack with 25 percent of respondents expressing support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden (18 percent) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (13 percent).

Businessman Tom Steyer (11 percent), former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg (10 percent) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (10 percent) were clustered close behind.

Meanwhile, Vox reports on two recent polls that show why the “Never Bernie” crowd has already missed the bus.

A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll shows a Sanders surge, with the Vermont senator increasing his support by 12 points since last fall, up to 24 percent and ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden at 22 percent. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is in third place at 15 percent in the poll, which was taken January 31 to February 9 and has a margin of error of 4 percent. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg gets 10 percent. Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota are in single digits.

Earlier this week, a Capitol Weekly poll of California taken February 6 to 9 gave Sanders a healthy 13-point lead over Warren, well beyond the margin of error, with 29 percent of the vote. Biden, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg were clustered below 15 percent in the poll.

It’s become more apparent that only a Sanders collapse will prevent his nomination. He probably won’t win South Carolina. He doesn’t have to. Even a third-place finish would give him momentum going into Super Tuesday.

Trump’s fondest hope and the Democrats’ most horrible nightmare could very well come true.