The tremor out of Iowa is becoming an earthquake nationally. According to this Public Policy Polling survey, Donald Trump’s massive lead over the GOP field is deflating while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are coming on strongly.
Trump remained in first place in the survey, which was conducted by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and was set to be released later Thursday. He received 25% of the vote from Republican-primary voters nationally. Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida tied for second at 21% apiece.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson grabbed 11%. None of the remaining Republican candidates received more than 5% of the vote.
It was a stark contrast from the national survey that Public Policy Polling released in mid-December. That poll found Trump, at 34%, maintaining a large national lead over both Cruz (18%) and Rubio (13%). Rubio seemed to benefit at Trump’s expense with a stronger-than-expected showing in the Iowa caucuses, in which he nearly caught up to Trump. His poll standing was up 8 points from December.
As the candidates barrel toward New Hampshire, which on Tuesday will hold the election’s first primary, early signs have shown Rubio to be climbing there after his Iowa performance.
A University of Massachusetts Lowell tracking poll, conducted daily, had Rubio jumping into New Hampshire’s No. 2 spot in Thursday’s release. Trump, however, still had more than a 20-point lead.
The Public Policy Polling survey could also lend credence to many Rubio supporters’ argument that he could be the Republican establishment’s best option to take down Trump and Cruz, whose potential nominations have unnerved many in the party’s mainstream.
A 7News/UMass Lowell tracking poll of New Hampshire still shows Trump up substantially, Rubio with a slight bump since Iowa, and Cruz falling to third place:
It’s not an earthquake, yet…But the political ground in New Hampshire is moving.
We’re seeing more of Iowa’s impact, and the war of words underway here.
Hillary Clinton is coming back; and Marco Rubio is coming up.
Donald Trump stays in first, with 36%; Rubio takes over second place, with 15%. Ted Cruz, now in third, has 14%. Jeb Bush, 8%; and John Kasich 7%.
Other news: Trump calls for Iowa election do-over as Cruz campaigns in NH
For the rest of the Republicans: Chris Christie, 5 %, Ben Carson, 4%; Carly Fiorina 3% and undecided 8%.
Our tracking poll show its all: Trump on top, but down two points– the first time he’s dropped in our poll.
Marco Rubio shoots into second place, with 15%, a gain of three points overnight.
Ted Cruz holds his support, but slips into third place.
Trump is still expected to win New Hampshire, which conventional wisdom says will give him his momentum back going into South Carolina and Nevada.
But who’s going to bet on conventional wisdom this election cycle?