Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is trailing far behind his rival, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, among unmarried women and only slightly leads Clinton with married women voters, according to poll results released on Thursday.
In total, 2,700 interviews were conducted for a poll on behalf of the, Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund (WVWVAF), which included 300 presidential year voters chosen from a voter file in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“This is a full representative sample of presidential year voters,” pollster Stan Greenberg said. “It is samples off of a voter file so we are only sampling people that have a voting history in past presidential elections or if they have registered since that time and have a very high likelihood of voting in this election.”
The WVWVAF is “a research-driven, nonprofit and nonpartisan organization dedicated to increasing the participation of unmarried women and other historically underrepresented groups in our democracy.”
According to the WVWVAF, most of the states covered in their latest survey have growing racial diversity, which gives Democrats an advantage in 2016.
Unmarried women prefer Clinton 64 percent to 23 percent and 10 percent for Libertarian nominee Gov. Gary Johnson. In 2012, unmarried women preferred Obama 64 percent to 34 percent for 2012 Republican presidential nominee Gov. Mitt Romney. In 2012, Romney won over married women voters by 8 points. Based on VPC’s survey, Trump is currently winning the married women vote by 1 percent over Clinton.
“If unmarried women had voted like married women, Romney would have gotten 308 electoral votes and you would have seen a state-by-state change – and not only in the presidential election but some of the other Senate elections as well, so that’s a key determinate of who wins an election. There’s no question about it,” Page Gardner, founder and president of WVWVAF, told PJM during a conference call on Thursday.
Gardner called Clinton’s lead over Trump among unmarried women a “massive marriage gap.”
“Their lives are stretched and stretched. They do see a role for the public sector, a greater role for the public sector, and there are key differences in how they view the role of government. There’s just no question about it,” she said.
Greenberg said it is “striking” that married women are producing such large numbers for Clinton at this stage of the election given that the conventions have not taken place yet.
“Their level of interest in this election is rising but their performance for Obama in 2012 was disappointing,” he said. “A lot of this has to do with whether the candidates are addressing the economic issues that matter to them, and so there’s an unmarried women story.”
According to the WVWVAF poll, Clinton beats Trump by 8 percentage points across the “rust belt” battleground states as well as Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada.
The poll also found that Trump has 80 percent support with registered Republicans, which is 10 points below Clinton’s support from registered Democrats. The poll revealed that Trump is receiving 50 percent of the voters who supported former Trump rival Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio), 61 percent of Republican moderates and 78 percent of voters who backed Romney.