Maybe I’m reading into this, but it sounds like the Biden campaign is worried about Pennsylvania.
According to Charlie Spiering, White House correspondent for Breitbart News, Trump’s Director of Battleground Strategy Nick Trainer told reporters that the “Biden campaign just outlined on a zoom call that said Trump was within one state of winning” the election.
If the Biden campaign is publicly saying Trump is within one state of winning, imagine what they are seeing privately. https://t.co/z65s6C0GIg
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) November 2, 2020
And what state is that? I have a guess.
The Trump campaign just said on a press call that they have the following projected breakdown in Pennsylvania:
– Biden leads by approx 750,000 votes heading into Election Day
– Trump gets 2.6 million votes in Election Day
– Biden gets 1.5 million votes on election day
— Amber Athey (@amber_athey) November 2, 2020
Among other factors that bode well for Trump, Biden’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average is now +1.2, which is less than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016, when she had a +2.1 lead in the RealClearPolitics average.
The Biden campaign does not seem very confident.
According to Yamiche Alcindor of PBS, the Biden campaign says Biden has “multiple pathways” to winning 270 electoral votes, but she also “stresses that they believe Biden can win without winning FL, PA, OH, and TX, which she called the four largest battleground states.”
Jen O'Malley Dillon, of Joe Biden's campaign, says they continue to believe that Biden has "multiple pathways" to winning 270 electoral votes. She stresses that they believe Biden can win without winning FL, PA, OH, and TX, which she called the four largest battleground states. pic.twitter.com/ek5U7gvpIC
— Yamiche Alcindor (@Yamiche) November 3, 2020
Is this true?
Technically, it is. But, if Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas, FiveThirtyEight’s forecaster tool gives Trump an 86 percent chance of winning the election. Biden would have to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Arizona to overcome that red wall. But if Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas all go to Trump, Arizona is 71 percent likely to go to Trump as well. So make no mistake about it, Biden’s path after losing Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas is very, very small.
When you run the scenarios though, the election clearly hinges on one state: Pennsylvania. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, but Trump wins Florida, Texas, Ohio, and Arizona, Biden has an 89 percent chance of winning the election.
Further, Biden has been in Pennsylvania today, clearly trying to undo the damage his anti-fracking comments have done.
Pennsylvania is the key.
Matt Margolis is the author of the new book Airborne: How The Liberal Media Weaponized The Coronavirus Against Donald Trump, and the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis