PredictIt, which describes itself as “a unique and exciting real money site that tests your knowledge of political events by letting you trade shares” on events such as election outcomes, predicts a Biden victory but has the race in a very interesting spot. In the map below, Biden defeats Trump with just 279 Electoral College votes. But should either Michigan or Pennsylvania move into Trump’s column, he’d win the election.
— Matt Margolis 🇺🇸 (@mattmargolis) November 2, 2020
Scientific? Perhaps not. But it says a lot about how people who are putting their own money on the outcome see the election turning out.
The map fluctuated some on Monday evening, with Arizona going back and forth between blue and red, but recent indicators suggest Arizona will go to Trump. This map tells you a lot about how important Pennsylvania is in determining the outcome of the election. And while PredictIt still has Pennsylvania in the blue, it’s trending in Trump’s direction.
A chart comparing the 2016 & 2020 @PredictIt prediction market prices on who will win Pennsylvania.
— PI (@PredictIt) November 2, 2020
Based on the above graph, we can see that, as far as prediction market prices are concerned, Trump is better positioned in Pennsylvania in 2020 than he was in 2016—which means that prediction markets see Trump as having a better shot at winning reelection than the polls.
Matt Margolis is the author of the new book Airborne: How The Liberal Media Weaponized The Coronavirus Against Donald Trump, and the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis