If you believe the polls, Joe Biden has a commanding lead nationally and is beating Trump in the battleground states. For sure, he’s headed to an easy victory, right?
Trump supporters say, “Don’t believe the polls,” and pollsters are convinced that after their embarrassing failure in 2016 they’ve got it right this time.
Okay, well, then why is Joe Biden going to Minnesota on Friday? A Republican hasn’t won the state since 1972, and yet, four days before the election, the Biden campaign, which has enough money on hand to work at expanding the map for Democrats, is coming to what should be safe territory for them.
Some in the media are seeing sirens.
Dems have been optimistic about Minnesota lately but Biden camp just announced he's making a late trip there Friday. pic.twitter.com/FNWK3ttwhD
— Alex Thompson (@AlxThomp) October 29, 2020
Democrats upon hearing news that Joe Biden is heading tomorrow to Minnesota, a state many in the party have felt comfortable with and where Republicans haven’t won since 1972. pic.twitter.com/w4DwmUMX33
— Matt Viser (@mviser) October 29, 2020
Hmmm "On Friday, October 30, Joe Biden will travel to Minnesota"
— Zeke Miller (@ZekeJMiller) October 29, 2020
Sorry, if Biden were winning he wouldn't be using one of his extremely rare public appearances to try and lock down Minnesota. https://t.co/w9A76QvPkT
— Evan Sayet (@EvanSayet) October 29, 2020
But, polls show Biden ahead. It’s all in the bag for Biden, right? Trust the polls!
Well, let’s consider the facts. In 2016, the last two polls out of Minnesota had Hillary Clinton up in Minnesota by a healthy margin. The Star Tribune poll had Hillary up 8 points, and the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll had her up 10 points.
She won by 1.5 points, a mere 44,765 votes.
Fast-forward to 2020, and the RCP Average has Joe Biden up a mere 4.7 points, and Trump’s been gaining on him in the past two weeks.
And it’s not just Minnesota he’s going to.
Does a campaign spend the Friday before Election Day in these states if their internals match, say, 538’s current aggregate, putting Biden up 1 in Iowa, up 8 in Minnesota, and up 8.4 in Wisconsin? https://t.co/Ai23MNpzTv
— Jim Geraghty (@jimgeraghty) October 29, 2020
Another poll showed Joe Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin. So, why would he waste time there so close to the election?
It seems safe to say that even the Biden campaign knows that public polls aren’t getting things right.
Matt Margolis is the author of the new book Airborne: How The Liberal Media Weaponized The Coronavirus Against Donald Trump, and the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis