Is it just me or is 2020 following the same script as 2016? Polls predict a Trump defeat while rallies show Trump has all the enthusiasm. Barack Obama is out on the trail, and big Hollywood names are doing everything they can to defeat Trump.
And here’s my favorite part of the script: Democrats salivating about possibly winning Texas.
Yep, once again Democrats think they have a chance, and the polls are giving them reasons to believe it. In fact, NBC News has officially designated Texas as a “toss-up” state from “leans Republican.”
NBC News also rates Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio as toss-ups.
Obviously, Democrats have looked at these polls and are giddy. They’re even sending Kamala Harris down to the Lone Star State. The Biden campaign has raised a lot of money, and arguably has plenty to burn as they hope to expand the map for Democrats in 2020.
Have we seen this movie before? Does this sound familiar at all? It should. Who can forget 2016, when the conventional wisdom was that Donald Trump was so toxic that traditionally red states were suddenly competitive. And yes, even Texas. In fact, four years ago, RealClearPolitics declared Texas a tossup.
The political tracking site RealClearPolitics, which collects and averages polls in every state, declared Sunday that Texas is now a tossup in the presidential election.
The site previously classified the traditionally red state as leaning toward GOP nominee Donald Trump, but it made the switch after the release of a CBS tracking poll Sunday showing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton down just 3 points in the Lone Star State.
The RCP average of polls showed Trump ahead of Clinton by 4.8 points on Sunday.
This is probably a good time to remind you that Donald Trump won Texas by 9 points.
That’s right. Nine points. But, it was a tossup state, according to RCP’s average of state polls.
But let’s get back to 2020.
The big unknown factor this year is early voting. Polls have consistently shown that Democrats overwhelmingly plan to vote early, while Republicans overwhelmingly plan to vote in person on Election Day.
According to an analysis from NBC News, Republican voters are dominating early voting in Texas, 53 percent to 37 percent. If Democrats actually had a shot at winning the state they’d need a commanding lead in early voting. But the numbers aren’t showing it.
We go through this every damn election.
No, Texas IS. NOT. CLOSE.https://t.co/8O1UfNi7sc
— Larry Schweikart (@LarrySchweikart) October 24, 2020
Texas will stay red this year. While I don’t doubt that Texas is trending purple, it is not yet a legitimate swing state. Biden will not win Texas.
But please, Democrats. Spend all sorts of money in Texas. Bring Kamala in on Friday. Try hard. Spend that money. And when you’re done, spend more money. Use as many resources you have in Texas. Keep it up.
Matt Margolis is the author of the new book Airborne: How The Liberal Media Weaponized The Coronavirus Against Donald Trump, and the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis