Election 2020

If This Poll Is Accurate, Trump Will Be Reelected Easily

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

President Donald Trump’s job approval hit its highest level in more than five months in Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll from Friday, reports CNSNews.

According to the poll, 50 percent of likely voters approve of Trump, with 39 percent strongly approving. Disapproval was at 48 percent, with 43 percent strongly disapproving.

Trump’s approval in this poll was boosted by black voters. According to Rasmussen, a slight majority of black voters approve of Trump, and a higher percentage of minority voters approve of the president.

Two months ago, black likely voter approval for President Trump in the Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll was at 40 percent. In August 2019, black voter approval for Trump stood at 26 percent.

Trump received 8 percent of the African American vote in 2016.

I was very much skeptical of Rasmussen’s 40 percent approval number two months ago. Approval that high from black voters would make Trump’s reelection all but certain. While I question the results of this poll, I do believe that it is possible that it could be more accurately capturing the trend of black approval for Trump. If Trump’s approval from likely black voters was at 26 percent a year ago, it is certainly possible that the economic improvements black Americans experienced prior to the pandemic could have resulted in a surge of support.

I don’t see it hitting 40 percent or even 26 percent, let alone 50 percent. But is it possible that Trump could get 10 to 12 percent of the black vote in November? I can see that.

Rasmussen was one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016, but even they urge caution in putting too much stock in these numbers. “Fact Check: True,” they tweeted. “However since this is represented in only 1 overnight polling cycle so far we urge caution in making any predictions on this. Let’s wait.”

So, while I don’t think Trump’s approval from black voters is that high, I do think they do reflect improving approval from minorities. Whether it’s enough to secure his reelection, we just have to wait and see.

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Matt Margolis is the author of the new book Airborne: How The Liberal Media Weaponized The Coronavirus Against Donald Trumpand the bestselling book The Worst President in History: The Legacy of Barack Obama. You can follow Matt on Twitter @MattMargolis